Transcript Class PowerPoint, chap outlines and sample illustrations

Gordon Chap. 5
Hypotheses
•Predictions
•“Models”---maybe a conceptual
flow chart
•Strong inference
•experiments
Gordon Chap. 5: Hypotheses
“It is my hypothesis that…”
Hypotheses Force you to:
•Think in terms of predictions
•Think of ways to disprove a claim
(e.g., the null hypothesis)
•Makes your goals explicit
•Guides reviewers to core effort
Models: “structured abstractions”
Quantitative models
Analog models
• Organize complexity
• Point to questions/problems/hypotheses
• Organize data and results
• Present results
Experiments
• Don’t think just in terms of “laboratory
experiments”
• Lab vs field
• Quant vs. qualitative
• Model experiments
“Finding Experiments”
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Natural or “Found” Experiments
Weaker “control”
“natural trajectory” experiment
“natural snapshot” experiments
Booth: Chap. 5 From Problems to
Sources
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Need something of a plan for sources
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Reliability screen
Experts as sources
Bibliographical trails
What you find
Avoid concluding early:
• Ouy! “Nothing new to say, there goes my
project!”
• Question the results (answer may be
“they’re pretty good!”)
• Do it differently
• Do it better
Chap. 6: Using Sources
Read for a Problem
• Stating / Clarifying the problem (look for
weaknesses, chance to re-state, or challenge)
Read for an Argument
• Use “model” arguments from similar research--BORROW THE LOGIC! (that’s not plagiarism)
Read for Evidence
• Careful, complete citation
• Collect “data” from your sources;
• critically assess;
Chap 7 Making Good Arguments
• claim --- reason --- evidence
– Base claims on reasons, base reasons on
evidence
• Acknowledge and respond to alternatives
– Answer as may questions and doubts you can
imagine (but where do you stop?)
• Avoid “inappropriate evidence” (p. 124
• Avoid “comfortable simplicity” (p. 125)
Chap. 15: Illustrations, graphs, tables
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Careful use will enhance your work.
Conceptual flow chart / diagram
Lists and tables
Maps
photos
Hurricane
Flood
Prevention: modify the event
Earthquake
(Dams, levees, cloud seeding, etc.)
Tsunami
wildfire
Magnitude, frequency,
duration, extent
Natural Events
System
Natural Hazard
Impacts
Response
economic loss
Human use
System
Vulnerability
Populations
Agriculture
Settlement
Transportation
Housing
Adapt: reduce human vulnerability:
(building codes, land use
regulations, etc.)
Spread / Share the
Loss: Disaster aid,
insurance
Growth in the American West
• More “boom” than “bust”
The Riebsame-Travis* Scale of Climate
Change Severity
*Taking its rightful place among the great hazard scales: Richter, Mercalli, SaffirSimpson, and Fujita! Named after moi and my previous name: two names sound
better than one.
Level 1: perhaps autonomous adaptation will work as performance standards are
occasionally up-dated.
Level 2: Targeted adaptation to specifically-recognized climate challenges.
Level 3: Adapting to climate change as a natural hazard.
Level 4: Who knows?
The conceptual
structure of the
International
Land Science
Program
See:
GLP (2005) Science Plan
and Implementation
Strategy. IGBP Report
No. 53/IHDP Report No.
19. IGBP Secretariat,
Stockholm. 64pp.
Patterned Regional Outcomes
Driving Forces
•Population Growth
•Job growth
•Per capita housing
growth (households,
house size)
•Low density, autooriented, “pastoral”
suburban culture
Enabling Forces
Shaping Forces
•Transportation
network
•Transportation
network
•Pro-development /
growth local policies
•Public lands
•Flex-time, home
office; retirement;
and footloose
businesses
•Recreational
features
•Local tax structure
• NEW LISTING!
Canyon Ranch, Beaverhead County. The 1,270 acre
Canyon Ranch represents an unusual opportunity to
acquire 3 +/- miles of one of the finer spring creek
fisheries in the west. The structural compound is well
built, technologically advanced and comfortable for
accommodating a single owner or a multitude of guests.
With four miles of improved horse trails, miles of fishing,
a world class trout lake and abundant wildlife, this is a
recreational treasure complimented by a working
cattle operation. Settled in a very scenic canyon
adjacent to vast federal ground, the ranch is positioned
in a relatively undiscovered part of western