Transcript 6. Tourism in Croatia - Clim

Clim-Run: Tourism in Croatia
Čedo Branković
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
([email protected])
Caroline Brosy, Marjana Gajić-Čapka, Ivan Güttler, Kristian Horvath, Vladimir Kalinski,
Robert Pašičko, Mirta Patarčić, Melita Perčec-Tadić, Lidija Srnec, Ksenija Zaninović
Summary on Croatia’s tourism:
* Most of Croatia’s tourism is based on sun and sea
- 96% of the tourism trade is generated in the Adriatic counties which have the most favourable
climate
* The structure of tourist facilities is very uneven
- Nearly 50% of beds are available in private households, 25% in camps and only 13% in hotels
(of which 4* and 5* hotels make only 40%)
* The tourism sector permanently employs about 95,000
- 7% of country’s total work force.
* In 2012, the total number of arrivals was 11.5 millions
- About one third in private households
- Total spending accumulated to 7.3 billion Euros
* Croatia’s tourism is characterised by pronounced seasonality
– In 2012, 87% of nights was realised in the period June to September
Summary of replies to tourism questionnaire:
Respondents:
- 7 interviews, 9 county tourism associations, 7 at the 1st Workshop (over 60 invitations!)
- Ministry of Tourism, Croatian National Tourist Board, 1 national park, 3 hotel groups,
1 local community, Institute for Tourism, consultancy company, health tourism expert,
independent consultant
Replies:
- Climate variability and extreme events affect business activities (except one!)
- Climate-related risks are important or very important
- Of most importance are droughts, water quality, storms, atmospheric pollution, loss of
biodiversity, coastal erosion, sea level rise
- But also: extreme events, inter-seasonal variability and change of length of (holiday) season,
i.e. the beginning and the end of season
- Most of respondents use only daily weather forecasts!
- The future climate change are envisaged to have largest impact on outdoor activities (including
camping), investment in energy efficiency and may pose a threat to natural attractiveness
(e.g. in national parks)
- Most important climate parameter is precipitation (about 75% of all responses) followed by
temperature, extreme weather events and winds
Product development:
* Defining stakeholders’ needs
- Based on the questionnaire replies, it was possible to only broadly define stakeholders’ needs
- For many users, extension of the peak season to shoulder seasons is the most “appealing”
consequence of potential climate change
- climate change should not be always associated with negative connotation
- Croatia may be in a relatively better position when compared with other Mediterranean
competitors
- A comprehensive measure that defines a human (instinctive) perception of climate at certain
location (for various time intervals)
- based on fact that most tourists appreciate climate through the sense of comfort (or
pleasure)
- tourist comfort index (TCI) - or any derivative - for both present and future climate
seems to be a quantity that would appropriately satisfy needs of most tourism
stakeholders in Croatia
- it could be defined for any location (region) and any time period (week, month, season)
- it may look complex (because it includes various climatic parameters) but there are ways
to make it simple and widely acceptable
Product development:
* PET – Physiologically Equvalent Temperature (thermal impact on humans)
- Derived from the equation of thermal balance between human body and the environment
- Easy interpretation of results
- Includes thermal sensation scale ranging from “very cold” to “very warm”
4
VERY
COLD
8
COLD
13
COOL
18
23
SLIGH. COMF.
COOL
29
35
41
SLIGH. WARM HOT
WARM
VERY
HOT
100%
80%
y-axis: percentage of
days
60%
Rovinj
40%
20%
0%
JUN
JUL
AUG
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
Mali Lošinj
40%
20%
60%
Zadar
40%
20%
0%
0%
JUN
JUL
AUG
JUN
JUL
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
Hvar
40%
20%
Dubrovnik
40%
20%
0%
0%
JUN
Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)
AUG
100%
JUL
AUG
JUN
JUL
AUG
Product development:
* CIT – Climate Index for Tourism – integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical parts
- Thermal part measures energy balance human body-atmosphere
- Aesthetic part is sky condition: from clear to overcast
- Physical components are wind and rain
- CIT describes quality of climate conditions for activities for which it is specifically designed
Rating class
very poor
1
2
marginal
3
unacceptable
4
5
ideal
6
acceptable
7
Thermal
Cloudiness
Rain
Wind
perception (4/10) (5/10) (>10 mm) (8 m/s)
very hot
hot
warm
sligh. warm
comfortable
sligh. cool
cool
cold
very cold
CIT for cycling
Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)
Product development:
100
* Examples of CIT
Rovinj
80
60
Beach tourism
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
100
One location – various activities
Mali Lošinj
80
100
60
40
40
20
Climate index for tourism (CIT) - DUBROVNIK
Zadar
80
60
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
0
1
3S tourism (sun, sea, sand)
Golf
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
100
Hvar
80
100
100
60
80
80
40
60
60
20
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
Dubrovnik
80
60
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
20
0
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
12
2
3
4
Cycling
5
6
7
8
9
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
optimal (6-7)
acceptable (4-5)
not acceptable (1-3)
Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
One activity – various locations
0
1
3
10 11 12
Sailing
100
2
8
9
10 11 12
Other points:
* Climate change has become a part of Strategy of Croatia’s tourism
- Strategy to year 2020
- No major, potentially adverse, impacts of climate change on tourism are envisaged
- Temperature rise may cause positive impact (extended season, increased competitiveness wrt
southern Mediterranean countries)
* Seasonal (monthly) forecasts
* Energy efficiency of hotels (Croatian reality - research covered 47 hotels)
-
Hotels associate sustainable construction with an increase in initial investment
Only one hotel monitors the amount of waste
Only one hotel recycles the material from the guest rooms and common facilities
Water “savings” - washing machines used even if not fully loaded
Heating in 92% of hotels by oil, all swimming pools are heated by oil
Cooling installed in 53% of hotels, most surfaces covered in glass
No use of energy from renewable sources!
* Development of one mountain resort
- Detailed analysis of terrain elevations, orientations of ridges and slopes --> capacity
estimations
- Analysis of solar impact at 9, 12 and 15 local time --> warm and cold zones