Transcript April 24, 2006 — By Deborah Zabarenko, Reuters

U.S. Taps Private Sector to Fix Greenhouse Pollution
April 24, 2006 — By Deborah Zabarenko, Reuters
WASHINGTON — Delegates from six of the world's biggest greenhouse gas polluters -- including the United
States -- gathered last week for the first time to figure out how private industry can help curb global warming.
The Bush administration is promoting this voluntary effort as a practical way to develop clean-energy
technology to tackle climate change. But an environmental expert dismissed it as busy-work that would not be
as effective as the requirements imposed by the international Kyoto Protocol on global warming.
Initially skeptical, the U.S. administration accepts the reality of global climate change, which has been
associated with stronger hurricanes, severe droughts, intense heat waves and the melting of polar ice.
Greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide emitted by motor vehicles and coal-fired power plants, trap heat
like the glass walls of a greenhouse, causing Earth to warm up. More than 300 delegates from the six countries
-- Australia, China, India, Japan and South Korea, in addition to the United States -- met last week in
California for the first working sessions of the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate.
These six countries account for about half of the world's emissions of climate-heating greenhouse gases. Only
one of the six, Japan, is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 under the Kyoto agreement.
Unveiled last July in Laos and formalized with a high-level meeting in Australia in January, the partnership
aims to spur development of cleaner, more energy-efficient technologies, said Paula Dobriansky, under
secretary of state for democracy and global affairs in a telephone briefing as the meetings proceeded at
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
RESULTS IN SIX MONTHS
The California meeting was the first chance for working groups to discuss "concrete steps," Dobriansky said,
adding that the group was aiming for "tangible results over these next six months." The Bush administration
has requested $52 million for fiscal 2007 for this program spread among the departments of State, Energy and
Commerce and the Environmental Protection Agency. James Connaughton, chairman of the White House
Council on Environmental Quality, dismissed a question about the seemingly low level of U.S. government
financial backing.
"(That) perspective is completely turned around," Connaughton said in the telephone briefing. "Only with
private sector investment does the technology get deployed. The government does not go out into the world and
spend the several trillion dollars that are about to be spent on the technologies that are going to be the solutions
to this problem." Government's role, he said, is to guide investment.
David Doniger, a former Clinton administration expert on climate change now with the nonprofit Natural
Resources Defense Council, said that without limits on greenhouse gas emissions, the partnership will be
ineffectual. "The partnership is symptomatic of the Bush administration failure to do anything serious at home
or abroad about global warming, because it's all voluntary," Doniger said by telephone.
Over the past 30 years, the Earth has warmed by 1.08 degrees Fahrenheit; over the last 100 years, it has
warmed by 1.44 degrees F., according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Chapter 15
Short term climate variability
How can we document past climate change?
What causes past climate change?
What factors may cause change on decadal
timescales?
Signs of recent change – An Inconvenient Truth
Evidence
Oxygen isotopes
Pollen and alpine glaciers
Historical documents
Figure 15-1a,b,c
Recent temperature change
Figure 15-1d
Palynology is the science that studies contemporary and fossil
palynomorphs, including pollen, spores, dinoflagellate cysts,
acritarchs, chitinozoans and scolecodonts, together with
particulate organic matter (POM) and kerogen found in
sedimentary rocks and sediments.
Dendrochronology - Dendrochronology or tree-ring dating is
the method of scientific dating based on the analysis of tree-ring
growth patterns.
The Holocene
To observe a Holocene environment, simply look around you!
The Holocene is the name given to the last ~10,000 years of
the Earth's history -- the time since the end of the last major
glacial epoch, or "ice age." Since then, there have been smallscale climate shifts -- notably the "Little Ice Age" between
about 1200 and 1700 A.D. -- but in general, the Holocene has
been a relatively warm period in between ice ages.
Small temperature changes can result in large local or
regional changes in climate
Vikings in Greenland
The Younger Dryas
The Younger Dryas saw a rapid return to glacial conditions in the higher
latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900 – 11,500 years before
present (BP) in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding interstadial
deglaciation. The transitions each occurred over a period of a decade or
so.Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice
core GISP2 indicates that the summit of Greenland was ~15 °C colder than
today during the Younger Dryas. In the UK, coleopteran (fossil beetle) evidence
suggests mean annual temperature dropped to approximately -5 °C, and
periglacial conditions prevailed in lowland areas, while icefields and glaciers
formed in upland areas. Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of
abrupt climate change has been experienced since.
Possible Cause for the Younger Dryas
North Atlantic deep water formation – cut off by the cap of
relatively light freshwater
Figure 15-2
Last time, we saw that climate changes can be abrupt
Is a change in North Atlantic deep water formation (i.e. cut off by the cap of
relatively light freshwater) a possible cause for the Younger Dryas cold period
ca. 12,000 years ago?
Accumulation of snow (similar record in dust)
A few years!
Figure 15-2
Chapter 15
Short term climate variability – continued
What factors may cause change on decadal
timescales?
Volcanoes
Solar luminosity
Changes in patterns of climate states
What about volcanic eruptions?
Produce SO2  aerosols  Increase albedo
Average of five eruptions
Recent evidence indicates that climate changes are not gradual, but
rather occur abruptly, shifting between two very different states…
except recently!
Box Figure 15-1
Does it matter?
What about sunspots?
Length of sunspot cycle vs.
temperature anomaly
Figure 15-8
Problem – what is the mechanism? The change in
solar output with sunspot activity does not appear
to be large enough to explain the changes in
temperatures (at least, according to models)
El Nino
Impact of El Nino on weather
What if we include volcanoes and solar forcing into the model?
How do the results compare to observations?
Good agreement
Observed T larger
than modeled in
recent times
Figure 15-9
Add in radiative forcing from observed CO2 changes
Increases 0.5o
Figure 15-10
Which of the following factors contribute to climate variability?
(a) Volcanoes
(b) Solar luminosity
(c) Cloud cover
(d) Greenhouse gases
(e) All of the above
Why do we care about ozone in the stratosphere?
(a) It is the source of oxygen for life on Earth
(b) It reflects infrared light from the Sun, keeping Earth cool
(c) It absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation from the Sun
(d) It helps in formation of clouds
(e) All of the above
When was ozone discovered?
(a) In 100 BC
(b) In the late 1700s
(c) In the early 1900s
(d) In 1960
(e) In 1985
How are stratospheric ozone depletion and global
warming related?
(a) Increased ultraviolet from the Sun due to ozone
depletion warms the earth.
(b) Some of the same gases that cause ozone depletion
can cause some greenhouse warming of the earth.
(c) Changes in climate may lead to changes in ozone.
(d) (a) and (b)
(e) (b) and (c)
Evolution of agreements to limit production of CFCs
Figure 17-14
How did things happen so quickly with ozone depletion, anyway?
1973 – Rowland and Molina propose that CFCs will harm ozone layer
1975 – first measurements showing breakdown product of CFCs in stratosphere
1975-1985 – CFC producers argue with scientists over significance of problem
1985 – Joseph Farman reports on “ozone hole” over Antarctica
1986/87 – measurements over Antarctica indicate that ozone hole is due to chlorine from CFCs
1987 – Montreal Protocol established to limit further growth in production of CFCs (but note,
emissions will still continue)
1989 – first signs of ozone hole over Arctic detected
1989 – du Pont announces plans to stop all production of CFCs – urges countries to take action
1990 – London Agreement further restricts production of CFCs
1991 – Soviet Union collapses
1992 – US Senate votes 96-0 to ban all production of CFCs
Three major things happened that helped to ‘solve’ the
CFC/Ozone problem
1.
A major and unexpected environmental ‘catastrophe’ occurred (the
ozone hole) that was ultimately explained by emissions of CFCs
2.
There was political ‘will’ to deal with the problem, and resistance
from a major superpower was minimal as the Soviet Union collapsed
3.
du Pont voluntarily halted production of CFCs when they found new
substitutes and were able to create a new market
Will the same elements be necessary for solving the CO2/Global
Warming problem?
1.
Has there been a major environmental catastrophe? If so, has it been
proven to be caused by CO2? probably not
2.
Is there political will to solve the problem? certainly not yet in the US
and other major countries like China – note that even Canada has
decided that limiting CO2 may be too costly
3.
Are there substitutes for fossil fuel? YES! Companies are pretty smart –
you have to be is you want to exploit new markets. However, they are
also likely to continue to reap profits from the lucrative fossil fuel market
until there is the will to solve the problem.
What is it going to take? You decide!
Polar bears sink deeper into
danger