Transcript Climate Change – Africa

Climate Change
Effects of Climate Change on
Africa and how to react to it.
John Birchall
Africa - vulnerability
Africa – the major causes for
concern
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Temperature rises over many areas will be greater than the global
average. The general predicted rise is 4C by the 2080s. But
temperatures could rise to 7C in southern Africa and 8C in northern
Africa - almost double the global average
Significant changes in rainfall could be experienced across the
continent, with the area around the Sahara and in southern Africa
Desertification is likely to increase around the Sahara, causing
populations to move.
Rising temperatures, widespread water stress, increased frequency
and severity of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels will
severely damage progress on development goals in Africa.
Cereal crop yields could fall between 10 to 30 percent by the 2050s
compared to 1990 levels.
Africa – the major causes for
concern
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Heat waves will bring increased injuries and death.
Vector- and water-borne diseases such as malaria,
dengue fever and cholera may increase.An additional 67
million people in Africa could be at risk of malaria
epidemics by the 2080s.
Greenhouse gases must be curbed and help must be
given to vulnerable Africans to adapt to the new climate
conditions. The cost of climate-proofing current
investment plans will be between $10bn and $40bn.
What is global warming?
The main greenhouse gases
Who is monitoring global changes?
Some trends for discussion
How’s the rainfall near to you?
Rainfall - discussion
How have annual rainfall numbers been
changing in your country?
 Migration of pastoral farmers, land use,
distance to fetch water, human migration
patterns
 Government reactions?
 Health matters
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Sea temperature changes
What should we be thinking about?
Land usage
 Water provision
 Irrigation
 Marginal land
 Rural-urban drift
 Coastal erosion
 Who pays and how
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What might happen?
It’s going to get hotter…
Reactions to temperature trends
What has been happening in your
country?
 Rainy season, lake depths, flash floods
 Illnesses related to increased
temperatures
 Deterioration in national asset structure
 Government reactions
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What might happen to the sea?
Rising sea levels
Are these affecting your country – how?
 Coastal populations and food stocks
 Land use
 Transport, infrastructure, distribution of
products
 Migration
 Government reactions
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Could we be more at risk from
disease?
Diseases may increase
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Are there any signs of this in your country?
Why might this be happening
How will it affect national health care delivery
How might it affect education
What is government doing to educate people of
the risks
Does government have plans to combat any
increase in disease levels
Malaria
Marine Resources
Marine Life
The economic impact of the sea
Marine resources
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Are these important to your country and if so
why
Are marine resources being exploited
How can value be added in this sector
Who owns and regulates this part of the
economy
What are its future prospects
How does the government address this area of
the economy
Africa is less at risk…
Human behaviour
Those at most risk
Causal Factors
Who is most at risk?
The sea is a powerful force
All of Africa is at risk – the Nile Delta
The Gambia
The vulnerable are at an increased risk
Another example
Economic Impact
The economic impact
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Which areas of your country would be most at
risk if global warming increases?
How would this affect parts of your economy
Are these large contributors to the national
economic wealth
How might your government react to the
possible economic changes that global warming
might cause
Economic Impact
Conclusion
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These resources have been designed to help
you focus on the major consequences of global
warming
You should be thinking about your own country
and its geography and demographics
You will also need to consider how and where
global warming might impact on your country
Conclusion - 2
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Finally, why not start to think about HOW
the government, the private sector, NGO’s,
major donor countries and other interested
parties will need to produce policies that
minimise the disruption to your economy
and its people as global warming becomes
a reality – good luck