Transcript Lesson-4

Section of specification covered
• Global climate change
• Evidence for climatic change over the last 20 000 years.
• Global warming – possible causes.
• Possible effects: on a global scale, on the chosen tropical region
(above) and on the British Isles.
• Responses to global warming: international, national and local.
• Global climate change
• Evidence for climatic change over the last 20 000 years.
• Global warming – possible causes.
• Possible effects: on a global scale, on the chosen tropical region
(above) and on the British Isles.
• Responses to global warming: international, national and local.
The UK Climate
Impacts Programme
(UKCIP)
Link
UKCIP
Impacts on the British Isles
• The BBC conducted a climate change experiment and
concluded that;
• The UK should expect a 4°C rise in temperature by 2080, with
heat waves on the rise and by 2080, summer temperatures of
40°C common. Winters are also predicted to be warmer.
• Summer rainfall is set to decrease and the UK can expect
more frequent droughts, a problem exacerbated by the UK’s
rising population and tendency for population to live in the
South East, already a water shortage area. Winters will bring
less snow and more rain, especially in the North and
West. Storms will become more frequent and more
severe. (Source)
Severity?
• The impacts of these potential changes in
climate are immense. Don’t forget, the last
ice age was just 6°C colder than today’s warm
period. Some of the impacts on society, the
environment and the economy are listed
below (much of it from this link);
Coasts
• UK coastal waters have warmed by about 0.7 degrees Celsius
over the past three decades. In addition, the average sea
level around the UK is now about 10 centimetres higher than
it was in 1900. We will have to adapt our use of the coastline
and our sea defences in order to cope with this, or put
millions of people living in low-lying areas at greater risk of
flooding. There Are a number of low-lying areas are
vulnerable: coasts of E. Anglia, Lancashire,
Fens, Essex mudflats, Thames estuary, Clyde/Forth
estuaries. The Thames Barrier could need rebuilding at a
cost of£20billion
Weather
• Since rain records began in 1766, the amount of winter
rainfall in England and Wales has risen slightly. However,
over the last 45 years there is evidence that there have been
more extreme rainfall events. UK flooding was the worst for
270 years in some areas and in 2009, some areas, like
Cumbria, witnessed widespread flooding. Flood damage
now costs Britain about £1 billion a year.
Wildlife
• There are already changes to the way plants and animals live
in this country. The period between spring and autumn
when plants grow is now about a month longer in central
England than it was in around 1900. This will affect British
plants and animals, it has already been noted that migratory
patterns of some birds has changed, and some flowers are
blooming earlier. New research has been published stitching
together nearly 400,000 first flowering records covering 405
species across the UK (Amano et al 2010). They've found
that British plants are flowering earlier now than at any time
in the last 250 years (source).
UK Health: 1
• Water availability and water stress could get worse, and
there will be health impacts. The Department of Health
think that outbreaks of diseases common in warmer areas
such as malaria will remain unlikely to occur in the UK, but
we will have to consider the health impacts of heat waves
(such as that experienced in 2003) and extreme weather.
UK Health: 2
• The air pollution climate of the UK will continue to change.
Though concentrations of a number of important pollutants
are likely to decline over the next half-century, the
concentration of ozone is likely to increase. This will increase
attributable deaths and hospital admissions. The increases
are likely to be significant: with the least constraining
assumptions (no threshold of effect assumed) up to about
1,500 extra deaths and hospital admissions per annum might
be expected. Bloodsucking ticks, scorpions and poisonous
spiders and even malaria carrying mosquitoes all might
become a feature of life in a hotter UK.
• And of course if we don't cover up in the sun, increased
levels of skin cancer and cataracts are also a possibility.
Food: 1
• Britain has a thriving food production industry, however, it
still needs to import 40% of its food to make it food
secure. This lack of self sufficiency could be a problem in a
warming world with a rising population. As food resources
become increasingly scarce what impact will this have on the
UK?
Food: 2
• If we got a couple of degrees warmer our current range of
arable crops would shift northward and maize, more often
grown in Southern Europe and North America, would
become more popular in the south and the midlands. Fruits
that are also associated with warmer climates, like peaches
and nectarines, would also be grown more widely. And the
hot summers could also be a real boost to the British wine
industry.
Food: 3
• Warmer seas around the UK are likely to attract fish that, up
until now, have favoured more southern waters.
• Recently fishermen have reported seeing surprising numbers
of mullet, anchovies and various species of shark. A
Mediterranean climate doesn't sound too bad - that is until
we also take into account the insect pests that also thrive in
warmer summers. Farmers fear the destructive Colorado
beetle could get more of a foothold if the weather warms. In
residential areas cockroaches could become more common
along with fleas and mites.
Homes
• Where we build our homes and how they are built would
need adapting. Land-use planning will be needed, such as
not building homes on flood plains and better surface water
drainage; infrastructure, such as building roads to cope with
"typical Mediterranean" summers; buildings, including the
construction of new homes and retrofitting old housing
stock to be better insulated cool in hotter summers. Get
more here.
Possible questions
• Describe the possible effects of global climate
change on the British Isles (8)
• Discuss the possible responses to global
climate change in the British Isles. (9)
• Essay -
40 mark essay
• “Up and down, up and down – that is how
temperature and climate have always gone in
the past and there is no proof they are not still
doing exactly the same now. In other words,
climate change is an entirely natural
phenomenon, nothing to do with the burning
of fossil fuels.” David Bellamy
Discuss the extent to which you agree with this
statement. (40 marks)