Transcript Slide 1
Ecoregions under Climate Change A Global Risk Assessment Presenter Chris Zganjar Spatial Data Analyses Chris Zganjar, Barry Baker, Earl Saxon Multivariate Cluster Analyses Bill Hargrove, Forrest Hoffman Special Thanks Robert Hijmans Climate Change is coming to an Ecoregion near you The Nature Conservancy’s 2015 Goal By 2015, The Nature Conservancy will work with others to ensure the effective conservation of places that represent at least 10%* of every Major Habitat Type on Earth. Where, When, and How Much? Can we identify areas of potential refugia? Can we identify areas of severe environmental change? Topics • Multivariate Clustering • Magnitude of Environmental Change • Applications Topics • Multivariate Clustering • Magnitude of Environmental Change • Applications Classifying Earth’s Systems Omernik Bailey Holdridge Each framework uses different sets of criteria to address different purposes. Thorntwaite Köppen Walter and Box Multivariate Clustering Elevation Compound Topographic Index Potential Solar Radiation Available Water Capacity Soil Bulk Density Soil Carbon Density Total Soil Nitrogen Stable Factors Potential Evapotranspiration Precipitation Driest Quarter Precipitation Wettest Quarter Mean Temperature Coldest Q Mean Temperature Warmest Q Bio Temperature Diurnal Temperature Unstable Factors Emission Scenarios A1FI B1 Spatially Explicit Cell Size: 2.5 o lat x 3.75 o lon ©David Viner http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ Multivariate Clustering Grid Cells: 4 square kilometers topographic variables Stable soil variables Current climate variables 2050 A1 2050 B1 2050 A1 UKMO Hadley 2 Models - 2 Scenarios 2050 B1 NCAR / DOE Multivariate Clustering Geographic Attributes REMOVED topographic variables Stable soil variables Current climate variables 2050 A1 2050 B1 2050 A1 UKMO Hadley 2 Models - 2 Scenarios 2050 A1 NCAR / DOE Multivariate Clustering Topographic variables Soil variables Climate variables ONLY Geographic and Temporal Attributes REMOVED Data, Data, Data Multivariate Clustering Oak Ridge National Laboratory William W. Hargrove & Forrest M. Hoffman Multivariate Clustering •Clusters in a 3-dimensional data space •Unique combinations of topographic, soil and climate factors are identified regardless of where or when they occur •Sphere color and size indicate the number of map cells per cluster Multivariate Clustering 5000 clusters representing current environmental clusters Multivariate Clustering 5000 clusters representing environmental clusters in 2050 2 Climate Models - 2 Emission Scenarios Topics • Multivariate Clustering • Magnitude of Environmental Change • Applications Magnitude of Change Magnitude of Change Environmental Change Maps Ensemble Mean 2 Models 2 Scenarios Potential Refugia Current 2050 Critical Threat Current Measure of Climate Change Severity 2050 Topics • Multivariate Clustering • Magnitude of Environmental Change • Applications Global data aggregation at three different scales 16km2 Grid Cell 803 Bailey Ecoregions 500 Current Domains Least Change Greatest Change Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by Bailey Ecoregions for use by The Nature Conservancy in setting Global Priorities Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by current domains for use by The Nature Conservancy in setting Global Priorities World Database on Protected Areas Least Change Greatest Change Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets World Database on Protected Areas Least Change Greatest Change Projected Refugia Highest Risk for Vulnerable Targets Projected magnitude of environmental change under an ensemble mean of 2 GCMs using 2 emission scenarios for 2050, aggregated by ecoregions for use by the UNESCO World Heritage Sites Least Change Greatest Change Where, When, and How Much? Can we identify areas of potential refugia? Yes, We recommend early action to effectively conserve large areas in ecoregions with lowest projected magnitude of change Can we identify areas of severe environmental change? Yes, We recommend and long-term management action to protect the most vulnerable conservation targets in areas of greatest projected magnitude of environmental change. Thank you!