Transcript Presentation Title - International Policy Council

New challenges: Markets
IPC
US$/ton
• food markets: from
demand constrained to
supply constrained
Wheat price in international trade, in 2005 prices
700
600
500
400
300
• dramatic price volatility
200
100
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
• rapid expansion of
bioenergy
Share of non-LDC developing countries in world trade
• growing market share of
developing countries
• climate change impacts
on food production
2
New challenges: Policies
IPC
• changes in agricultural
policy regimes
%points change
PSE Change 1995-97 to 2010-12
20
15
10
5
• growing interest in
policies addressing
climate change and
environment
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
• experiences with
implementing AoA
• spread of RTAs
3
Implications for priorities
IPC
• Growing scarcity requires well functioning markets,
progress in Doha Round urgently needed
• Attention needed to burden on food consumers
(in addition to constraining producer support in WTO)
• Improving food security in poor countries
... demonstrates to developing countries what
trade regime can do for them (DDA)
• Report suggests action, for shorter and longer term
4
Policy Action Proposed (1)
IPC
Export restrictions
• more transparency, consultations
• procedure to identify legitimate reasons to restrict
exports “to prevent or relieve critical shortages of
foodstuffs”
• food aid for countries in emergency exempted
from export restrictions
• constraints on export taxes
5
Policy Action Proposed (2)
IPC
Biofuels
• Rules for reporting support to production and
consumption of biofuels
• Constraints on biofuel support levels
Green Box
• emphasise policies not distorting production/trade
• focus on public goods
• eligibility only after notification, with detail
6
Policy Action Proposed (3)
IPC
International co-operation and assistance
• improve market transparency
• small, targeted emergency reserves
• improve productivity
in agriculture,
infrastructure
• assistance to
agriculture must not
decline again
25%
Share of agriculture, forestry, fisheries in total ODA
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
• social safety nets
7
Policy Action Proposed (4)
IPC
A new instrument of financial solidarity
between
– support for farmers in well-off countries, and
– measures to improve food security in poor countries
• developed and emerging countries contribute
relative to their farm support: yardstick could be
overall trade-distorting support (OTDS)
[for info: 1% of OTDS ≈ US$ 2 billion
≈ ¼ of ODA to agriculture]
• funds are used to improve food security in
countries meeting agreed quantifiable criteria
8
Conclusions
IPC
• World agriculture and food system faces new
challenges
• Improving food security is crucial
• Importance of Doha negotiations on agriculture
has become even more obvious
• There are several policy actions that can respond
to the new challenges
... and demonstrate to developing countries what
the trade regime can do for them
9