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By Krista Joosep PACT EAC PROJECT: AN INTRODUCTION 1 OUTLINE 1. The PACT EAC Project 3. East Africans: Hungry Food Producers 4. The Negative Effects of Climate Change on Food Security 5. As a trading region, the EAC has Huge Potential for Feeding Itself 6. Some Gaps to be Addressed PACT EAC PROJECT: AN INTRODUCTION 2 THE PACT EAC PROJECT ABOUT: Promoting Agriculture-Climate-Trade linkages in the East African Community (PACT EAC) is a 3-year project (2011-2014) undertaken by CUTS International Geneva and regional partners in the five EAC member countries, i.e. Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. PURPOSE: Assist EAC Stakeholders in better understanding and dealing with climaterelated hunger through trade, and effective participation in the multilateral trading system. OBJECTIVES: Increasing knowledge and capacity of stakeholders to develop and promote adequate policies to address climate-related hunger through trade Better stakeholder interactions for coordinated responses More inclusive and coherent approach to trade and related issues by all relevant stakeholders Facilitating the capacity of EAC Geneva mission delegates for a well-informed and active participation in the WTO PACT EAC PROJECT: AN INTRODUCTION 3 ACTIVITIES AT A GLANCE Research Networking Advocacy Fill knowledge gaps Propose policy interventions Anchor the project to ground realities Promote research recommendations What we have done What we have done 5 country studies being finalised 5 multi-stakeholder National Reference Groups established 10 multi-stakeholder meetings to review the research and share experiences. Online networking platform 1 regional event with ministerial participation Liaise with the EAC Secretariat The Next Step 5 studies to be released early 2013. 1 regional study on trade politics in 2013 What we have done Contributions in the media (press/radio/TV) Release of “Action Alerts” to relay stakeholders’ concerns. Involving the EAC Secretariat and relevant Ministers. The Next Step The Next Step 20 NRG meetings till 2014 to continue stakeholders’ involvement 2 regional annual meetings to take stock of progress 1 final international conference in Geneva Finalisation and implementation of Advocacy strategy PACT EAC PROJECT: AN INTRODUCTION 4 ACTIVITIES AT A GLANCE Training EAC Geneva Forum Build technical capacity among a critical mass of stakeholders to engage in relevant policy processes on CC-FS-T Assist EAC WTO negotiators in their better participation in WTO What we have done What we have done Training needs assessed and programme prepared TRAPCA is developing training materials The Next Step 3 regional training workshops 10 national training workshops 6 EAC Geneva Forum meetings (BTAs, EPAs, MC8, SPS etc.) Each meeting serviced by « Country Update Notes » Participation in project meetings in the region The Next Step Bi-monthly meetings and visits to the region will continue till September 2014. PACT EAC PROJECT: AN INTRODUCTION 5 PROBLEM OVERVIEW East Africans: Hungry Food Producers On average, 80% East Africans rely on agriculture for their living, mainly smallholder farmers. Yet, about 40% East Africans are undernourished. Climate change exacerbates such food insecurity Agriculture is mostly rain-fed, that is climate-reliant. Increased weather variability and unpredictability negatively impact the production and productivity of current staple food crops leading to food shortages. This results in increased food prices and changing patterns of food trade. Yet, the EAC as a trading region has huge potential for feeding itself The region has a huge potential to produce enough food for regional consumption and even surplus for export to the world market. But better policy coordination between EAC partner states and between agriculture, environment and trade policies is needed EAST AFRICANS: HUNGRY FOOD PRODUCERS On average, 80% East Africans rely on agriculture for their living, About 40% East Africans are undernourished. * Data from WB, UNDP, UNCTAD, FAO (2007-2011) CLIMATE CHANGE HAS EXACERBATED FOOD INSECURITY Climate change: persistent crop failures, lower crop yields, rise in prices, loss of agricultural land leading to migrations and human conflicts… In Uganda: Agriculture sector expansion 5% per annum since 2000; rapid increase in deforestation in 20 years lost 37.1% of its forest cover (FAO, 2011); direct impact on weather variability and temperature increase. In Northeastern Kenya: March and April is long-rain season, but this year, Garissa District received rainfall for a period of 7 days. The heavy down pour resulted in floods that caused farmers losses around Kshs 670m. Same region 2011 drought, livestock deaths up to 30-40 per cent affecting 1.4 million pastoralists. In Central Kenya: 2011/12 Frost bite in Nyandarua and Kinangop Districts in Central Kenya led to losses in potatoes and horticulture about Kshs 129m affecting 3000 smallholders. CLIMATE CHANGE HAS EXACERBATED FOOD INSECURITY, BUT… Governments and farmers have tried to come up with innovative responses… Tanzania introduced tropical crops (watermelon, pineapples etc.); now produced in large quantities. Ugandan farmers have adapted to heat and water scarcity by adopting NERICA upland rice (drought-resistant). Farmers in all EAC countries planting trees to stop erosion and increase water and soil quality. The trees lead to yields of coffee, tea, energy and medicinal products. Intercropping or alternating different plants in the same plot. AS A TRADING REGION, THE EAC HAS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR FEEDING ITSELF Regional food trade remains largely untapped… EVOLUTION OF EAC TRADE IN CEREALS (2003-2007) EAC region is increasingly dependent on cereal imports. Positive total Balance of Payment is due to production of export crops (tea, coffee…) SHARE OF INTRAREGIONAL FOOD TRADE IN TOTAL There is potential for much greater intra-regional food trade, particularly when it can contribute to better regional food security in the food scarce regions AS A TRADING REGION, THE EAC HAS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR FEEDING ITSELF Example 1: Uganda’s potential to become a rice basket for the region Projected Trends in Rice Industry 2008 to 2018 Rice production and trade: a dream come true for Ugandan smallholder farmers. 600000 500000 Rice production in Uganda has increased by more than 400 per cent in a decade. Metric Tonnes To promote local production: 75% duty on rice imports and introduction of NERICA in 2004. 300000 Produ 200000 Total Projected Trends in Rice Industry 2008 to 2018 100000 In EAC as a region imports 700’000MT of rice. 600000 Uganda is optimistic that it will soon be able to provide 500000 15% of EAC’s current rice imports and reduce current 400000 foreign exchange spent on rice importation worth 300000 $60m in Uganda. Metric Tonnes 400000 0 2008 -100000 2013 2018 Year Production milled rice (t) 200000 Total Consumption (t) 100000 Rice Imports (t) 0 -100000 Rice 2008 Source: PACT EAC Uganda study, 2012 2013 Year 2018 AS A TRADING REGION, THE EAC HAS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR FEEDING ITSELF Example 2: Northern Tanzania can be an inexpensive source of food for the food insecure southern regions of Kenya. Northern Tanzania has large and reliable expanses of productive agricultural land. This benefits Tanzanian farmers and traders who get relatively better prices compared to the domestic market. In 2011 drought, 4 million people in Kenya needed food aid as maize production was short by 700,000 bags. Maize from southern, central and northern regions of Tanzania started flowing into Kenya (same in 2001 and 2008). This resulted in doubling priced prices on both sides of the border (from TZS 9500 to 20,000/bag in 2001) and triggered increasing quantities of Zambian and Malawian maize into southern Tanzania. AS A TRADING REGION, THE EAC HAS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR FEEDING ITSELF But better coordination needed between agriculture, environment and trade policies… Tanzania Export Bans: Recent years, Tanzanian government had imposed maize export bans to lower the prices for the domestic market and to counter food deficiency in some of its districts. Bans did not meet their purpose and farmers have borne the burden of the resulting low selling prices. Tanzania has put at risk its opportunity to become the granary of East Africa. Lately the bans have been abandoned. Rice in Uganda: Cost of policy non-coordination Limited land holdings and shortened uncultivated periods have made arable land prone to soil erosion and destroyed large forest cover. Growing more rice means opening up more land and cutting more trees in already fragile ecosystems. SOME GAPS TO BE ADDRESSED Policy orientation Government should promote the production of food crops that have people’s preference towards commercial farming (Uganda) Policy inclusiveness Policies or Action plans are in place but separate in all areas. Climate change needs to be mainstreamed into trade and agriculture policy. Weak policy implementation A major problem remains implementation of adopted policies. Specific guidelines to policy implementers are needed towards this end. Effective removal of non-tariff barriers on the trade of staple foods. Information systems Lack of market information systems and databases on agricultural production, trade, and weather prediction. SOME GAPS TO BE ADDRESSED Trade negotiations Ensure that the sensitive list of items for food security purposes in all EAC trade negotiations is considered in negotiations like EPA negotiations. Leveraging the region to build infrastructure Need for climate change adaptation through infrastructure projects (e.g. water management, tree planting to control soil erosion etc.) Need to strengthen warehouse capacity to meet demand throughout the year and stabilize prices Many of the public goods required for adaptation are regional in nature (e.g. climate information, transport infrastructure…). Regional initiatives and institutions should play a vital role in coordinating and facilitating regional adaptation to climate change. www.cuts-geneva.org/pacteac WITH FUNDING SUPPORT FROM SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCY