Transcript Slide 1

Human Health Effects:
Particulate Matter and Climate
Change
Deborah M. Drechsler, Ph.D.
Research Division,
California Air Resources Board
October 29, 2007
California Air Resources Board
California Environmental Protection Agency
Overview
• Recent research on the effects of
particulate matter air pollution on
cardiovascular health
• Projections of public health impacts from
climate change: scenario analysis in
California
Evidence for PM - Related Health Effects
• Long-term PM10 and PM2.5 exposure
significantly associated with
– All-cause premature death
• Greatest risk for premature death due to
cardiovascular causes
–
–
–
–
Heart attack
Congestive heart failure
Stroke
Ischemic heart disease
• Greater association for PM2.5 than for PM10
What About Short-Term Exposure to
PM2.5?
• Increased risk of
premature death,
especially for
cardiovascular causes:
– Heart attack
– Congestive heart failure
– Ischemic heart disease
• Risk of premature death
lower than for long-term
exposure
What About Non-Fatal
Cardiovascular Effects?
• Daily exposure to PM10 and
PM2.5 associated with
hospitalization for chronic disease
– Greatest association for heart-related
causes
– Greatest effect in people with more
severe disease
• Effect greater for PM2.5 than
PM10
What Populations Have the
Highest Risk?
• Older adults with
chronic heart disease
• The obese
• Diabetics
• Possibly women
What Characteristics Do These Groups
Have In Common?
• Systemic inflammation has been reported
in
• People with heart disease
• The obese
• Diabetics
– Evidence from panel and experimental studies
shows at baseline and with PM2.5 exposure
• Increased blood markers of inflammation
• Changes in blood coagulability factors
New Findings on Influence of PM2.5 on Cardiovascular
Disease
• Several recent studies suggest
– Women may be at greater risk of adverse
cardiovascular effects than men
– Chronic exposure to PM2.5 may influence
development and progression of
atherosclorosis
Conclusions: PM and
Cardiovascular Disease
• PM2.5 is associated with increased risk of
– Premature death
– Hospitalization for worsening of chronic
disease
• Risk is greatest for heart-related causes
• PM2.5 may influence the development
and progression of heart disease
• American Heart Association has
concluded that PM2.5 poses a risk to
Projections of Public Health
Impacts from Climate Change in
California:
Scenario Analysis of
• Air quality
• Temperature
• Infectious diseases
• Wildfires
Introduction to Scenario Analysis:
2006 Emission Scenarios
• Three emissions scenarios
• High warming potential: A1fi
• Medium warming potential: A2
• Lower warming potential: B1
– Different assumptions
• Economic growth
• Population growth
• Characteristics of technologic growth
2006 Climate Change Models
• Three climate change models
– PCM1: low climate sensitivity
– GFDL CM2.1: medium climate sensitivity
– HadCM3: medium-high climate sensitivity
• Models differ in
– Handling of feedbacks that amplify or lessen
warming
• Water vapor
• Cloud cover
Climate Change Scenarios
Model Climate Sensitivity
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
EMISSIONS
GHG Emissions
PCM1
GFDL
A1fi
A2
B1
Increased warming estimate
HadCM3
10
o
Change in Maximum Daily Summer Temperature (C)
Increase in Daily Maximum
Temperature
88
A1
A2
6
4
B1
22
0
-2
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
Projected increase in summer daily maximum temperature
relative to 1971 – 2000 under A1fi, A2 and B1 emissions
scenarios, with three climate change models.
Source: Drechsler et al., 2006
Projected Climate Impacts on California, 2070-2099
(as compared with 1961-1990)
Sea
Level
Energy
Demand
90% loss
22-30”
20%
70-80%
loss
14-22”
10%
30-60%
loss
6-14”
3-6%
Sierra
Snowpack
10
9
8
7
Higher Warming
Range
(8 – 10.5 °F)
6
5
4
Medium Warming
Range
(5.5 – 8 °F)
3
2
1
0
Lower Warming
Range
(3 – 5.5 °F)
ºF
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov
Implications of Climate Change for
Air Quality and Health
Climate – Related Changes in Air
Quality
• California already has worst air quality in
the USA
• Warmer temperatures accelerate
atmospheric chemical reactions
• Increase in background PM and ozone
concentrations
• Absent further controls, PM and ozone will
increase
Ozone versus Temperature
180
160
160
2
Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)
Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)
2
R = 0.60
140
120
100
California Ozone
Standard
80
60
40
20
R = 0.82
140
120
California Ozone
Standard
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
o
Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)
Riverside, 2003-2005
110
120
30
50
70
90
Daily Maximum Temperature (oF)
Fresno, 2003-2005
110
Projected Ozone Response to Climate
Central California, 2050
10
% Change in Ozone
5
Fresno Sacramento
Bay Area
0
-5
2050
Emission
Reductions
Climate
Penalty
Combined
Effects
-10
-15
Steiner et al., “Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California”, JGR (2006)
PM2.5 versus Temperature
200
250
R2 = 0.02
Daily Maximum 1-hr PM2.5 (µg/m3)
Daily Maximum 1-hr PM2.5 (µg/m3)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
200
R2 = 0.15
150
100
50
0
0
50
60
70
80
90
100
o
110
30
50
70
90
o
Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)
Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)
Riverside, 2003-2005
Fresno, 2003-2005
110
Health Effects of PM and Ozone
• PM and/or ozone exposure associated
with
–
–
–
–
–
–
Premature mortality
Hospitalization for cardiopulmonary causes
Emergency room visits for asthma
Reduced lung function growth
Respiratory symptoms
School absences
• Air pollution health effects will be
proportional to the extent to which we fail
to meet air quality standards
Increase in Extreme Heat Days
140
Extreme Heat Days per Year
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Fresno
1961 – 1990
Levels
Los Angeles
Lower Warming
Range (3 – 5.5 ºF)
Riverside
Sacramento
Medium Warming
Range (5.5 – 8 ºF)
San
Francisco
Higher Warming
Range (8 – 10.5 ºF)
Increasing GHG Emissions
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov
Excess annual heat-related deaths
Heat Mortality Projections
700
600
500
Low Temperature Scenario
(3-5.4 oF)
400
Medium Temperature
Scenario (5.5-7.9 oF)
300
High Temperature Scenario
(8-10.4 oF)
200
100
0
San Francisco
Fresno
Sacramento
Riverside/
San Bernardino
Los Angeles
Projected heat-related mortality for 2070-2099 relative to 1970-2099
Uncertainties in Estimates of Future
Heat-Related Mortality
• Model uncertainties
– Emissions estimates
– Statistical issues
– Inconsistent definitions of “heat-related” mortality
• Contribution of physiological adaptation
• Changes in healthcare
• Changes in societal demographic structure
– Age distribution
– Population distribution
Infectious Diseases and Global
Warming
• Water-borne diseases
cryptosporidiosis)
(i.e.,
– Primarily related to heavy rainfall,
runoff, and flooding
– Inadequate sewage treatment;
combined sewage systems
• Vector-borne diseases (i.e., West
Nile virus, encephalitis, Hanta virus)
– Primarily carried by mosquitoes, ticks and
rodents
• Food-borne diseases (i.e.,
Staphylococcus, E. coli)
– Primarily due to poor food handling
practices
Projected Increases in Wildfire
Frequency
Wildfires and Public Health
• Health effects of wildfires
– Primarily related to
smoke
– Comparable to acute
exposures to equivalent
concentrations of PM
• Projected effects not
quantifiable
– Each fire is unique
– Specific fires can not be
predicted
Climate Change Health Effects in the
United States Compared to Worldwide
• United States
– Emits more greenhouse gases than any other
nation
– Has economic resources to minimize adverse
health effects related to climate change
• Majority of adverse health effects will be
borne by
– Low emitting nations
– Undeveloped countries with little
infrastructure and ability to effectively meet
climate-related health challenges
Summary – Climate Change
• Climate change is already happening
worldwide
• California is already warming
• Likely warming range: 2 - 9° F by year 2100
• Air pollution – related health effects
• Depend on extent to which we do not meet air quality standards
– Heat-related mortality
• Heat-related mortality estimated to increase 2 to 8 fold without
adaptations
– Vector-borne disease ranges will change
– Wildfire-related health effects
• Depend on location, intensity, and duration of fires
• Proximity to a population