Transcript Global Warming and Science

Global Warming and
Science
So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public
There is at least one alternate hypothesis
and a new theory
Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto
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What is Global Warming?
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Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied
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Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30
glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration
with interglacial periods warmer than now between them
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Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a
year (arithmetic average).
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ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down.
All the world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they lived on the
continental shelves.
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Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal
influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
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There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for
example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that
relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the
Milankovich orbital cycle.
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Athabasca Glacier has been
receding since the ice age
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Pennekamp Park – Key Largo
Reefs keep pace with sea level rise
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Solar System
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What If?
 If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would
roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like a sundried tomato
 Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC
 Mars - temperate zone soil
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+ 27 to – 80 ºC
 Moon - + 107 to 153 ºC
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What is the Greenhouse Effect?
 Certain gasses in the atmosphere absorb heat energy
and reduce the amount that escapes into space
 This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of
warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as
the ‘Greenhouse Effect’
 This gives us a global average temperature of
+15°C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse
Effect
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Important Facts
 Water vapour is the most important
greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the
greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in
the atmosphere (jury still out)
 CO2 and other minor gasses account for the
remainder
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Contribution to the Greenhouse
Effect (including water vapour)
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
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Is Global Warming Happening?
 Lets examine some very wiggly curves
 Death Valley California - temperature trend
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Berkeley California
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Blaine Washington
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New York NY
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Albany NY
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Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap
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State University Mississippi
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Chicago Illinois
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Houlton Maine - Did someone
shoot the weatherman?
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Buffalo NY
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Niagara Falls NY - 1911
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Key West Florida
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Global Warming
 Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time
series data
 Those weather stations are located where people are living.
Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the
world, rather a measure of increasing human density
 Death Valley, Key West, Blaine, and Houlton are far
(remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable
Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City?
 Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from
satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much
smaller warming.
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Realistically
 The planet is not warming in the dramatic
manner the alarmists claim
 There are many other sites that demonstrate
cooling
 I accept the warming but not the drama
 I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO2
 Why are the graphs so wiggly?
 Because climate is not weather
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Kamél, 2003
 “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis
of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time
resolution, have shown that first temperature rises,
and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the
temperature increase which causes the increase in
CO2 and not the other way around.
 The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra
warming to what is going on, but not even that is
certain”.
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CO2 increase in the atmosphere is
a trailing phenomenon
Throughout the greatest temperature transitions
experienced by the planet over the past 420,000
years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been
proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of
climate change, rising from one to five thousand
years after major increases in air temperature, and
falling in similar manner throughout the course of
the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee,
M., 2001).
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Observations
 Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due
to warming of the oceans
 CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your
Guinness to see this effect)
 CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse
gas effect – more CO2– less effectiveness
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CO2 has inverse solubility in
liquid
 Solubility of solids increases directly with
temperature of the solvent
 sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than
cold
 Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold
water and evolves rapidly out of warm water
 Don’t shake your Guinness!
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And…
 You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day,
that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the
industrial revolution is tipping the climate over
into uncontrollable heating…
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CO2 Feedback effect
 Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)
 Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
 Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the
same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking
incoming light
 More CO2– less additional greenhouse effect
 Increase in CO2 has less effect because
 Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one
important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This
line is clearly saturated.
 If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere,
not much will happen
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Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses vs. increasing CO2 content
- Willis Eschenbach
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Absorption wavelength
CO2 vs. H2O
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Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit
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Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003
Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003
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100
y = 0.1139x + 32.886
R2 = 0.061
80
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0
1700
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1840
1860
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1960
1980
2000
Year
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Sunspot peak frequency vs. temperature
anomaly
Black – Temperature anomaly
Red – Sun spot peak frequency
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Friis-Christensen and Lassen
(1991) Science Magazine
 95% correlation between sunspot peak
frequency and the temperature anomaly
 Sunspot curve, moreover, does lead the
temperature curve
 But, correlation is not causation
 What is the cause?
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Danish National Space Centre
 “An essential role for remote stars in everyday weather on Earth has been
revealed by an experiment at the Danish National Space Center in
Copenhagen. It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which
are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the
Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial
amounts of ions and release free electrons.
 Now, results from the Danish experiment show that the released
electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building
blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to
make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can
facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been
experimentally identified for the first time.”
 http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-thecosmic-connection-to-climate
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Danish Space Centre Theory
 ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar
wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level
clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer
climate
 Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux =
reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops →
galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds → More
snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) → colder
climate
 That's how the bulk of climate change works
 Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are
cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in
the ocean
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Potentially large sources of cosmic
radiation when stars supernova
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CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen
(Science, 1991)
www.friendsofscience.org
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CO2 and Temperature Anomaly
 Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890
to 1950
 CO2 does not correlate with temperature
anomaly from 1940 to 1970
 Temperature rise does correlate with solar
activity
 CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming
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Water vapour is the most
important greenhouse gas
 The most variable component of the atmosphere is
water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud
droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the
strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and
because the transition between the various phases
absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is
central to the climate and its variability and change.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Section 1.1.2 The Climate System
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We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle
since sunspots were first recorded
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Cycle 23
 The cycle was short - 10 years (out of 11)
 Bimodal peak is interesting (cycle 22 was bimodal too)
 We are experiencing the sunspot minimum this fall and
winter
 Anecdotally, this is consistent with both a warmer
than usual climate and also the result of the Danish
cloud chamber experiment
 High precipitation in humid regions of the planet like the
Great Lakes Region and NA west coast
 Desertification in regions of low humidity
 El Nino
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Why? Realistically?
 Is CO2 the target?
 CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
 Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’
 Repetition of stale ‘science’
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Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!
Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!
Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
Research grants? – Tied to outcome
 All of the above?
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Original Sin
Gracious no! Humans can only claim
responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4%
of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere
annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC,
Woods Hole)
Anthropogenic 0.11% of the global CO2 cycle
www.CO2Science.org
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My hypothesis is very weak
 Eruption of Krakatau, 1883
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Skepticism or Objectivity
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Moving to higher ground above
An Inconvenient Truth
"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental
testing becomes a scientific theory"
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Key References
Friss-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an
indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, New Series,
Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.
Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff,
and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in
particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal
Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.
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References
Temperature
Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate research
pseudo science?
Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a
few updates made since.
http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm
United States Historical Climatology Network dataset
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html
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References
CO2 as plant food
Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO2
enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.
Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends
for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research
Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.
Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and
forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere. New
Phytologist 139: 395-436.
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References
CO2 Saturation
Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of
Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)
Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO2,
Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala,
Sweden
http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm
CO2 Trailing effect
Mudelsee, M., 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO2
content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420
ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.
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Other Reading
deFreitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50,
No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science,
Auckland, New Zealand.
McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components,
and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710,
doi:10.1029/2004GL021750
Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee
report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the
Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on
Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.
The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four
sub-reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) Climate Change
2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change 2001:Mitigation,
and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.
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Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)
[email protected]
323 Blantyre Avenue
Toronto Ontario
M1N 2S6 Canada
416-698-6291
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Acknowledgements
 Jim Tilsley
 Les Manns
 Richard Bedell
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