Global Warming and Science

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Transcript Global Warming and Science

Global Warming and
So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public
There is at least one alternate hypothesis
and a new theory
Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto
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What is Climate Change?
Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied
Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30
glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration
with interglacial periods warmer than now between them
Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a
year (arithmetic average).
IPCC recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down.
The world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they migrated around
the world and lived upon the continental shelves
Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal
influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for
example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that
relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the
Milankovich orbital cycle.
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Pennekamp Park – Key Largo
SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre
sea level rise”
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Sea Level Rise Is Slowing Down
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Athabasca Glacier has been
receding since the Little Ice Age
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Moraine From the Little Ice Age
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Sea level Rising – not as fast as
the Land!
 Earth’s crust floats on the mantle like ice in
 Pushed down by ice – it is now rising
 Vivid examples of residual rebound are
Scandinavia and central Canada
 The northern Baltic countries are rising
nearly 1 metre per 100 years
 The Hudson Bay region still needs to rebound as
much as 150 m. in order for isostatic equilibrium to be
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Relax, the planet is fine…
The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate
Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason
University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns
Hopkins University
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Solar System Perspective
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What If?
 If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would
roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like sun-dried
 Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC
 Mars - temperate zone soil
+ 27 to – 80 ºC
 Moon - + 107 to - 153 ºC
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What is the Greenhouse Effect?
It is an analogy to a garden greenhouse
 Certain gasses in the atmosphere are alleged to absorb heat
energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space
 This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the
Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse
 The ‘greenhouse’ effect is a hypothesis
 This hypothesis (or the equally valid cloud cover hypothesis)
gives us a global average temperature of +15°C rather than 18°C if we had no water vapour or CO2
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Important Facts
 Water vapour is the most important agent ~ 60 - 98% of the heat trapping is due to
water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still
 CO2 and other minor gasses account for the
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Contribution to the ‘Greenhouse
Effect’ (including water vapour)
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Is Global Warming Happening?
 Lets examine some very wiggly curves
 Death Valley California (not much urban growth here) -
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Berkeley California
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No global warming here
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Blaine Washington
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New York NY
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Albany NY
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Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”,
December 2004, Harper Collins
 New York city has a fever then
why not Albany?
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Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap
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Chicago Illinois
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Buffalo NY
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Key West Florida
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Global Warming
 Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data
 Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far
from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of
increasing human density
 Death Valley, Key West, and Blaine are far (remote) from urban centres
and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs.
New York City?
 Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not
surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming.
 Most of the graphs show little or no warming since 1950
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 The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the
alarmists claim
 There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling
 I accept slow climate change but not the drama
 I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO2
 Why are the graphs so wiggly?
 Because climate is not weather
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Niagara Falls NY – 1911
The next Ice Age predicted…
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Relax, the planet is fine…
The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate
Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason
University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns
Hopkins University
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Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543
Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia].
Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ???
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Kamél, 2003
 “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis
of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time
resolution, have shown that first temperature rises,
and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the
temperature increase which causes the increase in
CO2 and not the other way around.
 The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra
warming to what is going on, but not even that is
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CO2 increase in the atmosphere is
a trailing phenomenon
Throughout the greatest temperature transitions
experienced by the planet over the past 420,000
years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been
proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of
climate change, rising from one to five thousand
years after major increases in air temperature, and
falling in similar manner throughout the course of
the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee,
M., 2001).
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CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid
 Solubility of solids increases directly with
temperature of the solvent
 sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than
 Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold
water and evolves rapidly out of warm water
 Don’t shake your Doctor Pepper!
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 Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due
to warming of the oceans
 CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your
Guinness to see this effect)
 CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse
gas effect – more CO2– less effectiveness
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 You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day,
that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the
industrial revolution is tipping the climate over
into uncontrollable heating…
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Water vapour is the most
important greenhouse gas
 The most variable component of the atmosphere is
water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud
droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the
strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and
because the transition between the various phases
absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is
central to the climate and its variability and change.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Section 1.1.2 The Climate System
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Absorption wavelength
CO2 vs. H2O
Three CO2 absorption wavelengths at 1.4, 1.9 and
2.4 μm cannot compete with nine H2O bands
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Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by
Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
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Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by
Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
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UN IPCC 1740 – 2000
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CO2 data used by the UN IPCC has fatal flaws
 Beck shows several instances when CO2 was
higher than today at Mauna Loa
 Most recently (1942) CO2 exceeded 400 ppm
 Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are
regionalized variables and realists might say
“Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that
emits CO2?”
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IPCC CO2 data is
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Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses vs. increasing CO2 content
- Willis Eschenbach
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CO2 Feedback effect
 Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)
 Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
 Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the
same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking
outgoing light
 More CO2– less additional greenhouse effect
 Increase in CO2 has less effect because
 Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one
important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This
line is clearly saturated.
 If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere,
not much will happen
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Well then what is the likely cause ?
Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003
y = 0.1139x + 32.886
R2 = 0.061
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Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit
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CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen
(Science, 1991)
"Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991"
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CO2 and Temperature Anomaly
 Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890
to 1950
 CO2 does not correlate with temperature
anomaly from 1940 to 1970
 Temperature rise does correlate with solar
 CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming
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Friis-Christensen and Lassen
(1991) Science Magazine
 95% correlation between sunspot peak
frequency and the temperature anomaly
 Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the
temperature curve
 But, correlation is not causation
 What is the cause?
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The subtle part…
 It is not only the number of
 It is not only the heat flux…
 It is not only the peak
 It’s all of those plus …
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Danish National Space Centre
 “It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed
atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way,
penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions
and release free electrons.
 …results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play
a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud
condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds.
Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the
production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally
identified for the first time.”
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Danish Space Centre Theory
 ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind →
geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo
(less heat reflected) → warmer climate
 Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar
wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more
low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected)
→ colder climate
 That's how the bulk of climate change works
 Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of
global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean
 When the waves are closely spaced, the planet warms
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Potentially large sources of cosmic
radiation - our star is one pixel
Betelgeuse is 427 light years away; Antares 600 light years away.
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We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle
since sunspots were first recorded
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Why, realistically, conspiracy theories
 Is CO2 the target?
 CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
 Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’
 Repetition of stale ‘science’ sells paper
Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!
Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!
Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
Research grants? – Tied to outcome
 All of the above?
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Original Sin
Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if
that's the word, for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide
emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all
natural (IPCC, Woods Hole)
Anthropogenic is 0.11% of the global CO2 cycle
Better term is ‘Anthropocentric’ implying narcissism
of the environmental lobby groups
Was that not the Galileo-Copernican dilemma?
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My hypothesis is volcanic
 Eruption of Krakatau, 1883
 Key West time series – There has not been much warming of the Gulf
of Mexico in modern time
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Skepticism or Objectivity
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Moving to higher ground.. Here is
An Inconvenient Truth
"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental
testing becomes a scientific theory"
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Take this test!
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Ad Hominem - ICPP
Intercontinental Conspiracy Perhaps Political
 Main players will not debate
 The world would watch
 They have a weak argument
 The anthropocentric bloggers will not talk about scientific issues
 Don’t have science knowledge
 Flawed data
 Generalizations from particular
 Polar ice and bears
 Local weather
 Hurricanes
 Argumentum ad Hominem too common
 ‘Precautionary Principle’ USED against all odds
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Albert Einstein said:
" If you succeed in using the nuclearphysical findings for peaceful purposes,
it will open the way to a new paradise".
Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)
[email protected]
323 Blantyre Avenue
Toronto Ontario
M1N 2S6 Canada
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Key References
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analyses by Chemical
Methods, Energy and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2 2007.
Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator
of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, New Series, Vol. 254,
No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.
Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff,
and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in
particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal
Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.
Jaworoski, Zbigniew, 2007: CO2: the Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time, EIR
Science, 16 March 2007.
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Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate research
pseudo science?
Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a
few updates made since.
United States Historical Climatology Network dataset
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CO2 as plant food
Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO2
enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.
Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends
for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research
Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.
Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and
forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere. New
Phytologist 139: 395-436.
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CO2 Saturation
Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of
Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)
Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO2,
Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala,
CO2 Trailing effect
Mudelsee, M., 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO2
content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420
ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.
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Other Reading
deFreitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50,
No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science,
Auckland, New Zealand.
McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components,
and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710,
Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee
report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the
Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on
Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.
The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four
sub-reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) Climate Change
2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change 2001:Mitigation,
and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.
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 Jim Tilsley
 Les Manns
 Richard Bedell
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