Transcript www.parl.gc.ca

RESILIENCE AND
ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE:
EXPERT TESTIMONY
PRESENTED TO THE
SENATE OF CANADA
BY: Mohammed Dore, Brock
University & CWN
Abstract:
• This testimony covers (a) the impact of
Climate change and natural hazards; and (b)
the threat posed by the use of coal and its
vast reserves in three countries that control
over 80 percent of the coal reserves. On
adaptation, I argue that the main impact of
climate change is likely to be on Canadian
water resources. Such impacts could
compromise Canada’s ability to meet the
need of its citizens with safety and security.
Objectives
1. To complement other testimony, so that I do
not repeat what the Committee has already
heard
2. To persuade Senate, because only Senate
can take a long-term view of the well-being
of Canadians
3. To concentrate on my own research and
expertise
4. To leave you with a short list of policy
priorities
Two Premises:
1. I would like to persuade you that water is a
rural resource.
2. The main impact of climate change on
Canada is likely to be on its water
resources.
Climate Change & Natural
Hazards
• You will note that geophysical disasters have
been stationary over the last hundred years
but Hydrometeorological disasters have been
rising from about 1942.
N A T U R A L D IS A S T E R S IN C A N A D A 1 9 0 0 -2 0 0 0
18
16
14
10
8
6
4
2
G E O P H Y S IC A L D IS A S T E R
H Y D R O M E T E O R O L O G IC A L D IS A S T E R
Figu re 1 : A T im es S eries D escription o f N atu ral D isasters in C an ada
99
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
YEAR
19
84
19
81
19
75
78
19
19
69
72
19
19
63
66
19
19
57
60
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19
54
19
51
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48
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42
45
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19
39
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36
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30
33
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19
27
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24
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21
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12
15
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09
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03
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00
0
19
N U M B ER
12
Some Summary Facts
• The most important GHGs are: Carbon
Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous
Oxide (N2O) and CFCs.
• CH4 from past emissions contributes 20%
• N2O, other industrial gases and ODS
contribute 20% (CFCs are stabilizing under
MP)
• CO2 is currently responsible for over 60%
of the enhanced greenhouse effect
Summary Facts, cont’d
• Current annual emissions amount to over 23
billion metric tons of CO2 or 1% of the total
mass of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
• CO2 levels appear to have varied by less that
10% during the 10,000 years before
industrialization - in the last 200 years levels
have risen by over 30%
• Even with half the emissions absorbed by
oceans and vegetation levels, CO2 levels
will rise by greater than 10% every 20 years
• Some 77 percent of the annual carbon
emitted into the atmosphere is from the
burning of fossil- fuels
World Carbon Accounts
Reservoir
Gt C
Atmosphere
750
Forest
610
Soils
1580
Oceans
39120
Fossil-fuels:
Coal
4000
Oil
500
Natural gas
500
TOTAL FOSSIL-FUEL
5000
World Coal Resources and Reserves, by Major Coal-Producing
Countries (in 106 metric tons of coal equivalent)
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
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Geological Resources
Technically and Economically Recoverable Resources
Who wields the biggest threat of
global warming?
• Just three countries have 82% of the world’s
coal:
• China
13%
• USA
24%
• Russia, Ukraine
• & Kazakistan
45%
• Share of World
82%
Policy Consideration
• Current political and economic influences
mean that the use of coal is likely to rise,
possibly even in Canada.
• The use of coal is most likely to increase in
developing countries
• A key priority at the next amendment under
UN FCCC (of say the Kyoto Protocol, or its
successor) should be focused on
discouraging the mining and use of coal.
Climate Change & Water
• We used CGCM1-GG1 climate change
model for predicting changes in climate
variables.
• The model gives precipitation projections
that do not take local features into account,
and hence ‘downscaling’ is carried out which
incorporates locational features particular to
the region.
• We illustrate by using Niagara as a case
study.
• The main impact in Niagara is expected to be
on wastewater.
Precipitation Projections
CGCM1-GG1 Proportional Downscaled Precipitation Statistics
for Niagara in Millimeters, Monthly Average Data
19612099
19611990
20102039
20402069
20702099
Maximum 1310.92
247.5
1310.92
933.93 881
Minimum
3.61
12.9
6.45
3.61
Mean
104.33
88.58
110
105.25 113.49
Standard
Deviation
89.44
37.11
114.04
92.01
6.75
94.07
Precipitation Projections (continued)
• The table indicates that there is an increase in the
precipitation mean as well as an increase in its variance.
• Maximum precipitation, a variable that reflects extreme
events also increases dramatically from the baseline period.
• By 2040, the mean could rise by 6% and the standard
deviation by 28% from the baseline period.
• We find that 118mm precipitation in a single month will
force the treatment plants to operate at 100%.
• Precipitation beyond 118mm a month will cause storm
water to overflow into the ecosystem, and wastewater
treatment capacity will have to be expanded.
• Such a critical capacity is shown in each of the following
graphs, along with the mean and the 95% confidence
interval for precipitation for 1961-2099:
Figure 1: Results for Niagara (1961-1990)
Figure 2: Results for Niagara (2010-2039)
Figure 3: Results for Niagara (2040-2069)
Niagara 2040-2069
180
160
P re c i pi ta ti on i n
140
120
mm
100
80
60
40
20
0
JA N
FE B
MAR
APR
MAY
C rit ic a l P re c ip it a t io n L e ve l
JUN
JUL
M o n th s
Lower
Mean
A UG
Upper
SEP
OCT
NOV
DE C
Figure 4: Results for Niagara (2070-2099)
Nia g a ra -o n-the -La ke WWTP
Pt. We lle r WWTP
Ba ke r Rd . WWTP
Town of
N iagara-on-the-Lake
Pt Da lho usie WWTP
Town of
G rim sby
C ity of
St. Catharines
Town of
Lincoln
C ity of
Thorold
Township of
W est Lincoln
C ity of
N iagara Falls
Town of
Pelham
We lla nd WWTP
Township of
Wainfleet
C ity of
W elland
C ity of
Port C olborne
Pt. C o lb o rne WWTP
Wa ste wa te r Pla nts
Nia g a ra Fa lls WWTP
Town of
Fort Erie
Ang e r Ave. WWTP
C rysta l Be a c h WWTP
Impacts on Wastewater Infrastructure
• The precipitation projections outlined will
have noticeable impact on all of the systems,
but most significantly on areas with
combined sewer systems.
• Systems include some older areas with
combined sewers and areas developed later
with separated sewers.
• Combined sewers are designed for both
sanitary or sewage flow and storm water.
• Combined systems are directly impacted by
high precipitation due to storm runoff.
Impact of Climate Change on
Wastewater Infrastructure (continued)
• With combined sewers, wet weather flow
and peak flow conditions can easily exceed
the capacity of the transport system resulting
in surcharge conditions or basement
backups.
• Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) are
designed to reduce risks.
• CSOs are of prime concern as they release
water pollutants to natural environment.
Impact of Climate Change on
Wastewater Infrastructure (continued)
• Another critical issue with respect to
water pollution is by-passing of flow at
wastewater treatment plants.
• High wastewater flows during
precipitation and spring runoff result in
both CSO and by-passes.
Impact of Climate Change on
Wastewater Infrastructure (continued)
• As a result of an increase in the projected
precipitation, it is estimated that the design
capacity will increase from 32% to 47%.
• The storage control costs will also increase
from the “present needs” by an estimated
$54 to $80 million.
• The total cost (storage + treatment) for the
wastewater infrastructure will be between
$74 million to $110 million.
Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on
Wastewater Infrastructure (continued)
• Variability in precipitation has pronounced
impact on water supply.
• Niagara’s water demands are a mix of
domestic, tourists, industrial, commercial,
institutional and agricultural needs.
• Vineyard, tender fruit and greenhouse
operations in north Niagara, create peak water
demand conditions in the summer.
• Prolonged hot, dry summers result in
increased peak water system demands
Capability to Adapt to Climate
Change
• In order to adapt to climate change, Niagara
will need the financial resources to increase
its capacity to process wastewater, mostly
stormwater due to increased precipitation in
eastern Canada, as a consequence of global
climate change.
• Indeed it is the lowest level of the
government that now faces the most severe
challenges, thanks to the process of
“downloading.”
Adaptation at the Local Level
• We can see from the above chart that the
municipalities are in no position to respond
to the challenges of climate change. If the
Government of Canada wishes to increase
the adaptability of Canadians, then action
must be taken where the adaptation
expenditures are most likely to be required.
For water, those adaptations must be made at
the local municipal water and wastewater
utility. If in addition, you are persuaded with
the recommendations of the IPCC to follow
a “no regrets” policy then the Government
must enhance the resilience of Canadian
infrastructure.
Conclusions
1. Hydrometeorological disasters are
increasing in Canada, and their severity is
likely to increase too, imposing huge
damages on the Canadian public
infrastructure and private property. Senate
may wish to consider increasing funding for
the natural hazard portion of OCIPEP.
Funding for research into the connection
between climate change and increased
Hydrometeorological disasters should also
be considered.
Conclusions, cont’d.
2. Canada should draw the attention of the
international community that the next
negotiations on a revision of an
international protocol under the UN FCCC,
should focus of the global threat from the
mining and use of coal, so that some early
action on discouraging the use of coal is put
in place soon.
Conclusions cont’d
3. To increase the resilience of Canada and
Canadian infrastructure, funding must be
directed where is it most needed, but where
the fiscal capacity is also the lowest, thanks
to downloading. The lowest fiscal capacity
is at the municipal level.