Transcript 2005 EPRI PowerPoint Template

Clean Renewable
Energy Technologies
Tom Key
EPRI Technical Lead Renewable
and Distributed Resources
[email protected]
865-218-8082
Prepared for:
APPA Workshop
on CREBs and REPI
February 9, 2006
Recent Push toward Renewable Energy
• Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices.
• Extreme weather has increases
debate about link between buildup of
greenhouse gases and storms.
• Energy Policy Act extends tax credits
(PTCs) for clean energy, provides 30%
Investment credit for Solar thru 2007.
• RPS’s in 22 States plus Washington
DC, more on the way…some
standards also address CHP, energy
efficiency, and waste fuels.
• Potential for future carbon caps and
and/or taxes.
Increasing need to develop
balanced and sustainable
generation portfolio
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Hurricane Katrina
2
Summary
• What is “Clean
Renewable”
• Technical Criterion
• Political Criterion
• Federal Policy Treatment
• States RPS Treatment
• Where do we expect to go with Clean
and Renewable Technologies
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3
Fuels use for US Electric Energy Generated
(from EIA-2003)
Capacity MW
Energy MWH
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Capacity Pie Shows
our Preference to
Build but not to
Operate
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Technically speaking, exactly what energy
resources are renewable?
1. Used for many years, by all of us, "renewable" is not a
clearly defined term and it can be somewhat misleading,
when applied to energy.
2. Given that energy is always conserved according to the
first law.... Energy is not renewable in any literal terms.
3. Never-the-less it is true that day to day sunlight, geothermal, and tides are expected to just keep on coming.
• this is because they are based on very large energy
resources rather than a renewable one.
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Some Technical Criterion for what we want
1. limited to the forms of energy that are so large we
can't imagine or calculate when they might be
depleted…..including fundamental energy sources of
solar, earth geothermal and tides (driven by
gravitation forces).
– Note that derivatives of solar..... hydro, run of river,
biomass, wind, wave, and ocean thermal.... also
qualify for this criterion.
– And, recognize that these resources are limited by
the need to find suitable locations to harvest the
energy....which can be a significant issue, as in the
case of conventional hydro-electric.
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More Technical Criterion for what we want
2. Energy resources with low emissions, including CO2
and other Green House Gasses, and over the life cycle
3. Sustainability and a small contribution to climate
change are also criteria
– Sustainable is more or less analogous with a large
and clean energy resource.
– Resources such as municipal solid waste, waste-toenergy, landfill gas, wood, and farm wastes....all are
derived from biomass/solar and fit on the fringe of
our renewable definition, especially when we include
significant recycling with MSW, which supports
concerns for climate change.
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An Energy Budget Model for the Globe
from Prof. Dean Patterson, Univ of NE
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The Second Law
"The total entropy of a closed system increases
over time."
Examples:
– We burn coal, stored energy is turned into heat and
dissipated
– We operate a hydro-electric facility, water at higher
level drops to lower level.
– We generate electricity in a nuclear facility and the
reaction uses up nuclear fuel and results in creating
heat….and so on.
……You can’t win, you can’t break even and you can’t
get out of the game…..
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Electric Energy from Renewable Resources
2003 total was ~ 360B kW-Hs
Sector/Source
Total
Biomass
Wood/Wood Waste
MSW/Landfill Gas
Other Biomass
Geothermal
Conventional
Hydroelectric
Solar
Wind
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2003
359,181,305
59,761,936
36,951,201
19,680,263
3,130,472
13,149,041
275,006,940
534,781
10,728,607
Percent of Total
100%
17%
10%
5%
1%
4%
Biomass
Breakdown
77%
0.15%
3%
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Political Criterion
• Depends on Region
• Demographics
• Availability of Renewable
Resources
• Public Opinion
• Political Objectives
• Other Political Forces
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Eight Task Forces Reports:
• Advanced Coal
• Biomass
• Energy Efficiency
• Geothermal
• Solar
• Transmission
• Wind
• Quantitative
http://www.westgov.org/wga/initia
tives/cdeac/index.htm
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Two White Papers:
• Combined Heat and Power
• Hydropower and Ocean Energy
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Energy Tax Incentives Act of July 2005 and
Treasury Department Notice 2005-98, Dec 2005*
Qualifying Facilities
1. Wind Facilities
2. Geothermal or Solar Energy Facilities
3. Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Biomass Facilities
4. Landfill Gas Facilities
5. Small Irrigation Power Facilities
6. Refined Coal Production Facilities
7. Trash Combustion Facilities
8. Qualified Hydropower Facilities
* Form Orrick Memo to APPA, 12/15/2005
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Technologies in State RPS
(23 states, ~1-20% by 2020)
Solar PV
22
Hydro conventional
12
Wind
22
Ocean
10
Biomass
21
Digester Gas
10
Land Fill Gas
17
Tidal
9
Solar Thermal
16
Wave
9
Misc…. H2, CHP, CoGen, Solar 16
hot water, Co firing, etc.
Geothermal
15
MSW
7
Hydro small
4
Fuel Cells (Renewable fuels)
Fuel Cell (any fuel)
4
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From http://www.dsireusa.org/
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Renewable Energy Technologies
Solar Thermal
Wind
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Solar Photovoltaic
Biomass
Green Buildings
Ocean Energy
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EIA Fuels for Electricity - History and Forecast
(1999…something wrong with this forecast?)
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Most Important & Uncertain Drivers
Evolution of Primary Fuel Markets
Low Gas Prices
High Gas Prices
Changes in Societal Values Regarding Global Climate
Changes
Low Prices for CO2
High Prices for CO2
(Public Perception that global climate
change is a low priority)
(Public Perception that global climate
change is a high priority)
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Current Situation
Increasing
Slightly
Uranium Prices
Aging and
Stressed
Declining
T&D Infrastructure Domestic Gas Supply
Abundant
Continued
Tightening
Coal Supply
Environmental
Regulation
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Proliferating
Renewable
Portfolio Standards
Continued
Impact on Monopolies
Commodities
China & India
Local
Distribution
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Scenario will determine our Energy Future
Biting the Bullet
Double Whammy
Supply to the Rescue
Digging in Our Heels
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New Generation based on recent events
and best estimate on levelized energy cost
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The Promise of Renewable Energy
An Important Option
considering Customer
preference, public policy,
environmental concerns, and
technological progress are
converging to make renewables
an essential energy resource.
EPRI carries the responsibility to
look for technological solutions that
can meet future energy needs while
protecting the environment, even if
they are still beyond today’s
economic horizon.
© 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NREL
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