Transcript Slide 1

Living with our changing climate
Session:
Adaptation and initiatives supporting
adaptation
CSIRO Climate Research and IOCI
CSIRO Climate Capabilities
CSIRO’s long-standing multi-divisional research and expertise:
 Ocean processes and dynamics
 Atmospheric processes
 Atmospheric chemistry
 Boundary layer and land-surface interactions
 Hydrology
 Climate modelling
 Climate impacts
 Pests and invasive species
 Climate and water
 Climate and ecosystem/agriculture responses
 Mitigation and abatement of greenhouse gas emissions
CSIRO Climate Capabilities
 Core CSIRO Climate Research and Applications: Observations,
process studies, system studies, climate model development,
decision support systems, applications to all sectors of the economy
(from urban to rural, from industry to ecosystems)
 Wealth from Oceans Flagship: Developing Ocean Prediction
Capability
 Water for a Healthy Country Flagship: Ensuring Sustainable Use
of Australia’s Water Resources
 Energy Transformed Flagship: Building Capacity for Greenhouse
Mitigation
 Australian Climate Change Science Program: Building National
Capacity to face Climate Change
CSIRO Climate Partnerships
CSIRO’s key partnerships:
 Australian Bureau of Meteorology
 Australian Universities
Commonwealth Government:
 Australian Greenhouse Office
 Royal Australian Navy
WA Government:
 Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
 Western Australian Marine Science Institution
State and Territory Governments & Industry clients
Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
 Conceived, developed in and for Western Australia;
highly effective partnership (WA State Agencies;
CSIRO; Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre;
Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Office)
 Combines observations, modelling and applications:
creating new knowledge about Western Australia’s
climate
 Focussed on the south-west
 Building regional capacity
Strategic research to assist decision making by the
State partners
Science priorities determined by a user-driven panel
Climate Change Adaptation
Approaches to climate change adaptation:
 Requires research on both climate change and
climate variability
 Requires an integrated multisectoral approach
 Is directed at identifying vulnerability
 Is not a linear process
 We can’t afford to wait until the science is ‘complete’
 We can learn from current adaptive strategies
Moving from past forms of projections to probabilistic
projections and risk assessment methodologies
Climate Change Adaptation
Identifying
vulnerability
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Using
adaptation
to mitigate
vulnerability
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Coping
Range
Planning Horizon
Vulnerable
Climate Change Adaptation
New methodologies do not follow linear,
sequential approaches
Climate
system
Impacted
activity
Socioeconomic
system
Current
climate
Current
adaptations
Future
climate
Future
adaptations
Climate Change Adaptation
Four stages of adaptation:
 Autonomous adaptation (we are still within coping range)
 Generic adaptation (we need interventions, but the generic
level is sufficient)
 Specific adaptation (interventions have to be specific to
industries and to locations)
 Transformative adaptation (when the change is too far
outside the current range, hard decisions will have to be
made)
Mitigation may help stave off the need for transformative
adaptation
CSIRO Climate Change Projections
CSIRO climate projections 2030 & 2070
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of a 1 degree
warming by 2030
9 GCM Patterns
6 IPCC Emission Scenarios
3 Climate Sensitivities
162 Scenarios
P>1oC Warming
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of a
decrease
in rainfall
larger than 0%
by 2030
>0% Decrease
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of a
decrease
in rainfall
larger than 5%
by 2030
>5% Decrease
CSIRO Activities in the West
 Regional climate change, regional climate variability & SW WA
rainfall/water resources
 Gnangara Mound, Avon valley water
 Indian Ocean dynamics, Indonesian throughflow, and impact on WA
climate
 Greenhouse mitigation by reducing methane emissions from livestock
 Livestock and pasture production for the future
 Sustainable plantation forestry, carbon sequestration
 Air Quality investigations for Wagerup, Burrup Peninsula
 Oil & Gas Technology (Energy Research Alliance)
 Marine Research (Strategic Research Fund for the Marine Environment)
 Western Australian Marine Science Institution
WA Stakeholders & Collaborators
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
 WA Government (whole of Gov’t, and specific departments:
Fisheries, Conservation and Land Management, EPA, ...)
 WA Universities
(Curtin, Western Australia, Murdoch, Edith Cowan: 14 students)
 Coastal and Aquaculture CRCs
 Water Corporation
 Woodside Energy
 Alcoa
 Worsley Alumina
 Western Power
 Griffin Energy
Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Report
Priority vulnerable systems and regions
 Ecosystems and Biodiversity
 Agriculture
 Water Supply
 Settlements and Emergency Services
 Energy
 Regions: Cairns & Great Barrier Reef
Murray Darling Basin
South West Western Australia
“regional adaptation planning requires coordination across all
levels of government and the involvement of industry, scientists
and community leaders”
Allen Consulting Group