Transcript Adaptation & Mitigation Agriculture and Climate Change

Adaptation & Mitigation
Agriculture and Climate Change
Presented to: Senate Standing
Committee on Agriculture and Forestry
April 29th, 2003.
By: Siân Mooney
University of Wyoming
Climate, production, prices,
economic outcomes
 Biophysical/production changes
Yields and total production
Suitable crop varieties and crop choices
Production area
 Market prices
Will change in response to changes in global
production
 Economic Outcomes
Combination of biophysical changes and market
price changes
Possible Climate Change
 Global average temperatures will increase by approx
2oC by 2050
 Regional and local changes most important
 Canadian Prairies (GCGM1, Hadley, CSIRO, GFDL)
2-3oC increase in summer temperatures
2.5-4.5oC increase in winter temperatures
Small increase or decrease in summer precipitation
Increase in winter precipitation
Climate predictions
T e m p e r a t u r e ( C)
M e a n S u m m e r T e m p e r a t u r e Ch a n g e f o r 2 0 5 0
GCGM 1
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
H ad CM 2
CSIRO
GD FL
S. Alb e r t a
Yu k o n
S. O n t ar io
Elle sm e r e
Is.
Flo r id a
Calif o r n ia
Lo ca t i o n
T e m p e ra t u re ( C)
M e a n W in t e r T e m p e ra t u re Ch a n g e fo r 2 0 5 0
GCGM 1
6
H ad CM 2
5
CSIRO
4
GD FL
3
2
1
0
S. Alb e r t a
Yu k o n
S. O n t ar io
Elle sm e r e
Is.
Flo r id a
C alif o r n ia
Lo ca t i o n
Source: H. Hengeveld. 2000. Projections for Canada’s Climate Future. Environment Canada.
Biophysical/Production Changes
 Yields
Possible yield increase in major crops as a result of CO2
fertilization
This could also improve water use efficiency
Precipitation uncertainty – quantity and timing
 Land area
Possible for agricultural production to increase in Northern
Canada – however limited by soil availability
– Estimate additional 1.44 million ha (north of 55oN)
– Possible expansion of southern areas too
Market Prices – Overall Economic
Outcomes
 Prices for agricultural commodities – globally
determined
Global production patterns
– Changes in Canadian productivity RELATIVE to the rest of the
world are important
 Overall economic outcome is determined by
biophysical and economic conditions
E.g high yields and very low prices might not be as
beneficial as low yields and high prices
Overall outcome is dependent on relative changes
Adaptation?
 Adaptation response is likely to be very spatially
variable – unlikely to be a universally “best” response
 Economic outcomes will be driven by biophysical
capability (local) and pricing changes (global) – need
to maintain an industry that is flexible
 Economic incentives – aimed at encouraging
adaptation based on current knowledge could be
misplaced – could reduce the incentives to make
necessary changes
Adaptation assistance
 Producer education
 Technological/Informational
Development of crop varieties
Improvements in forecasting (medium-long term)
Risk management tools
GHG Mitigation - opportunities
 Agricultural soils can sequester soil C – reducing
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs
 Estimates between 0.1 to 0.6 MT C/ha/yr
 Possible to sequester C in agricultural soils at
Prices competitive with forestry
 Although possible to sequester a small quantity per
hectare, Canada is land rich - millions of hectares
so overall could sequester a large quantity
Relative Cost of sequestration
120
Dollars per tonne
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
MMT Carbon per year
MC per tonne - Montana
MC per tonne - Iowa
Source: Antle, Capalbo, Mooney, Elliott and Paustian 2001.
0.8
0.9
Designing a C trading scheme
 Two main trading designs, payment for practice
or payment per credit
 Payment per credit is the most economically
efficient – however will have measurement and
monitoring costs
 These need not be prohibitively costly
Benefits from C sequestration
 Improvements in soil fertility
 Increased diversification for producers
 Could reduce the rate or amount of climate
change