Transcript Document

Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the
manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1750
from solid fuel burning
from liquid fuel burning
from gas fuel burning
from cement production
from gas flaring
1800
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
1850
Year
1900
1950
2000
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.html
Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the
manufacture of cement (in million metric tons of carbon)
9000
Total emissions
6000
3000
0
1750
1800
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.html
Global Carbon Cycle
(in billions metric tons carbon)
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
391.5 ppmv in 2011
400
(in ppmv)
375
350
325
300
275 ppmv in preindustrial time
275
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/
Global Carbon Emissions: present & future
(in millions metric tons of carbon equivalent)
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
including Carbon dioxide
GHGs are gases in an
atmosphere that absorb and emit
radiation within the thermal
infrared range.
This process is the fundamental
cause of the greenhouse effect.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
The Greenhouse effect
A
SUN
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
T
M
O
S
P
H
E
R
E
The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere
are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, and ozone.
Without GHGs, Earth's surface
would be on average about
33°C colder than at present.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Rise in the concentration of four GHGs
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Global Warming
The burning of fossil fuels, land use
change and other industrial activities
since the industrial revolution have
increased the GHGs in the atmosphere
to such a level that the earth’s surface
is heating up to temperatures that are
very destructive to life on earth.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
The global temperature has risen
by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century
(from 1906 to 2005).
Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Compare the above with the fact that
the global temperature has not
varied by more than 1 or 2oC during
the past 100 centuries.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Global warming has begun,
and so has the Climate Change.
Consequences…………
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Consequences…………
World’s first environmental
refugees
from Carteret Islands,
Papua New Guinea.
• Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the
Carteret Islands.
• Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands
freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops.
• The islands were declared uninhabitable by the
government in 2005 and expected to be completely
submerged by 2015.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/
Consequences…………
• death of coral reefs
• fewer cubs for polar bears
• spread of dengue and other diseases
• heavy rains & severe draughts
• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes
• changed rainfall patterns
• warming and aridity
• loss of biodiversity
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Rate of increase of CO2 concentration
(in ppmv/year)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1.8 ppmv/year
in 2011
0.5
0
1960
1970
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
500
475
450
actual value
at 1.0 ppmv/year
at 1.5 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
425
400
global temperature
may be up by 2oC
375
350
2000
2010
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per
year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2017,
and it is probable that the global temperature
o
would go up by 2 C
(compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).
-Accelerated Climate Change
-Mass extinctions
-Ecosystems breakdowns
-Large scale discontinuities
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Some say, forget about the 2oC.
The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.
It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly
twice the pre-industrial value),
which we may reach not.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
600
550
500
actual value
at 1.0 ppmv/year
at 1.8 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
450
We are lucky.
Are we?
400
350
2000
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
2025
2050
Year
2075
2100
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP):
Computer models of future CO2 emissions and controls on
atmospheric CO2 have been developed by CCSP.
These models indicate that projected annual global
emissions during the next century would need to be
reduced by more than 75% in order to stabilize
atmospheric CO2 at about 550 ppm.
According to the CCSP, stabilizing atmospheric CO2 would
"require a transformation of the global energy system,
including reductions in the demand for energy, and
changes in the mix of energy technology and fuels."
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
Discussion Point 5:
Should we place a upper sealing limit on the
global CO2 emissions to ensure sustainable
development?
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Sustainable Limit
Calculations
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
1. Virgin material supply limit:
To stabilize the atmospheric CO2
concentration below approximately 550
ppmv by the year 2100, global
anthropogenic emissions must be limited
to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga
tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996).
Prof. R. Shanthini
Source:
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
2. Allocation of virgin material:
Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the
planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal
share of carbon emissions.
That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents
per person per year,
which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per
person per year.
Prof. R. Shanthini
Source:
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
10
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI (defined on next page)2005
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
10
9
8
7
6
5
Singapore
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
USA
Norway
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
HDI (defined on next page)2005
1
Iceland
Japan
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)
HDI =
LI
3
+
2
EI (Education Index) =
3
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
+ GDPI
3
Life Expectancy - 25
85 - 25
LI (Life Index) =
GDPI (GDP Index) =
EI
3
Adult Literacy
1 School Enrollment
+
100
3
100
ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100)
ln(40000) - ln(100)
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
HDI > 0.8
10
Unsustainable amount of
per capita CO2 emissions
are required to reach
super high HDI (> 0.9)
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI 2005
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
Discussion Point 6:
How to limit the CO2 emissions below the
sustainable limit?
Take 10 mins.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Emissions Reduction Option 1:
Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as
forests where 70% of all photosynthesis
occurs).
But, we replace our forests with cities,
highways & golf courses.
Stop destroying forests,
and grow more trees.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
The forest cover is already too small
to help reducing global warming.
How long does it take to grow
a tree like this?
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Emissions Reduction Option 2:
Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources
What are they?
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (Geothermal, Solar,
Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass
and Biogas)
Muscle Power
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU)
175
Petroleum
150
Coal
125
100
Dry Natural Gas
75
Hydroelectric Power
50
25
0
1980
Nuclear Electric
Power
1985
1990
1995
Year
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
50%
Petroleum
40%
Coal
30%
Dry Natural Gas
20%
Hydroelectric Power
10%
0%
1980
Nuclear Electric
Power
1985
1990
1995
Year
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Fossil fuels
50%
Hydroelectric Power
40%
Nuclear Electric Power
30%
Electric Power from Renewables
20%
10%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
8%
7%
6%
5%
Hydroelectric Power
4%
Nuclear Electric Power
3%
Electric Power from Renewables
2%
1%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
There is no immediate
financial benefits for a
switch to renewable
energy in the profitoriented energy markets.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Projection of World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
100%
Coal
80%
Oil
60%
Natural gas
40%
Nuclear
20%
Renewable
energy
0%
2008
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
United States Energy Information Administration, 2011
Emissions Reduction Option 3:
Reduce Population
More people
More pollution
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Electricity use in 2006
If you are in USA,
you will be lighting
18.5 bulbs, each
with 200 W power
If you are in China,
you will be lighting
3 bulbs, each with
200 W power
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
CO2 emissions per capita
has stronger links
with GDP per capita
than with population.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Emissions Reduction Option 4:
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Controversial since permanent storage of
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012 CO2 underground is not guaranteed
Controversial since the impacts on marine
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012 ecosystem (very fragile) are not known
Advantage
Problems
Oil and Gas
Reservoirs
• Well-characterized volume
• Known seal
• Potential fuel recovery to
offset cost
• Smallest capacity (~25
gigatons carbon)
• Limited in number
• Requires infrastructure to
transport CO2
Formations
Containing
Saline
Water
• Large capacity (~250 to
900 gigatons of carbon)
• Wide distribution
• Poorly characterized
• Greatest geologic uncertainty
• Unknown seal effectiveness
Unmineable • Adjacent to many large
Coal Beds
power plants (CO2 source)
• Potential fuel (methane)
recovery to offset cost
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
• Poorly characterized
• Difficult to define "unmineable"
coal
• Potential coal resources may
be rendered unusable
http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
Environmental issues:
Potential for mobilization of ground-water contaminants;
leakage of CO2 and CO2-saturated saline water;
induced seismicity
Regulatory issues:
Determination of rules affecting injection wells;
multiple regulatory jurisdictions (State, Federal, local);
post-injection ownership and liability
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP):
The CCSP models illustrate the widely held view that
sequestration is necessary but insufficient to control
atmospheric CO2.
Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is likely to require substantial
changes in energy sources and use as well as carbon
management.
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
http://geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
Discussion Point 7:
What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions
below the sustainable limit as an engineer?
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Take 10 mins.
Food for thought:
What are the Engineering Challenges to
sustainability?
􀂃 Global climate change
􀂃 Energy production and use
􀂃 Food production
􀂃 Resources depletion
􀂃 Toxics in the environment
􀂃 Making sustainable lifestyles attractive
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
Base for your CP551 project
“Scientists study the world as it is,
engineers create the world that never
has been.”
- Theodore von Karman
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
“Scientists study the world as it is,
engineers create the world that never
has been.”
- Theodore von Karman
“sustainable engineering is about
taking the world back to where it had
been, while making it more civilized
than it was then.”
- shanthini
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012
The supreme Greek God Zeus
told Prometheus:
“You may give men such
gifts as are suitable, but
you must not give them
fire for that belongs to
the Immortals.”
– Roger Lancelyn Green
Tales of the Greek Heroes
Puffin Classics
Prof. R. Shanthini
updated: 18 Nov 2012