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Sustainable Agriculture Policy Climate Change Hunger Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri Sustainable Development Policy Institute Islamabad, Pakistan Non Sustainable CP - High population growth (185 million) increased resource demand—energy exhaustive production; increased input for HRV; non sustainable extraction of ground water - Subsistence agriculture farm poverty - Urbanization, peri urbanization, deforestation - Monsoon, floods, droughts, water scarcity, sea water intrusion most significant climatic event in region (70% of annual precipitation in 3 month’s period) - Solid waste management - Energy (77% thermal) - Glacial Melting Floods and drought - International Trade: Eco dumping IPCC last report acknowledged that – "there are considerable evidences to suggest that human activities are responsible for climate change. • Socio-economic issues should also be given preference. Climate Change-Agriculture Linkages - Rise in temperature Changed rainfall patterns Seasonal extremes and variations Glacial melting Floods Sea Water Intrusion Agriculture-Climate Change Linkages - Energy exhaustive food production - Increased input for high responsive varieties - Non sustainable extraction of ground water - Increased financial resources • Agriculture is at the nexus of three of the greatest challenges of the 21st century – – achieving food security – adapting to climate change, and – mitigating climate change while critical resources such as water, energy and land become increasingly scarce (CGIAR,2012) Two important challenges!! • To Ensure Food Secure Pakistan – 80 million Hungry and malnourished population – Increase in food production and productivity – Income diversification • Adapting to climate change – Strengthen resilience and coping mechanism for growing population and unsustainable resource use – Sustainable agriculture, especially for low and marginalized areas for more food supply and reduction in environmental damages Hunger in Pakistan Malnourished in Pakistan increased to 35 Million during 2010-12 from 30 Million during 1990-92 (FAO, 2011-12). Global Hunger index (GHI) 2012, Pakistan stands at position 57 in the list of 79 countries Child Development Index (CDI) 2012 places Pakistan at number 120 among the 140 nations Global Food Security Index 2012’ Pakistan at number 75, among 105 countries, with a score of 38.5/100 (The Economist, 2012) The National Nutrition Survey 2011 for Pakistan: food insecure population has increased by 12 million since 2006 severely food insecure population has risen from 9.6 million to 45.3 million that is 28% of the population In 2008 almost 51% of the population (72 million) survived at less than 2100 calories per day (NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY, 2012) Why sustainable agriculture? • Agriculture sector in Pakistan is main source of livelihoods • Sustainable agriculture growth is essential not only for sustainable food production but also to increase access and absorption of food by increasing incomes • Agro-based GHG emissions can be mitigate by itself -agriculture adaptations techniques and methods Uncertainties in Sustainable agriculture development and climate change to achieve food security • How much and at what scale climate change in diverse climatic regions in Pakistan will affect agricultural productivity? • How climate-compatible approaches be used and incorporated in agriculture development goals for food security and sustainable agriculture? • What are the bottlenecks of capacity, financial resources, technology, political, institutional and economic policies that hinder in scaling-up climate-compatible to marginalized poor and most vulnerable? ‘Identification of hotspots’ where threats are higher Knowledge Generation and Dissemination • Need for national agriculture policy integrating food security issues and sustainable agriculture Decision support systems Integrate information about land use and land change, food production, climate, demographics, and ecology etc. for proper and informed decisions. Priority setting Individual Security? National Security? Regional Security? Global Security Their interconnectedness makes it difficult to address the security of state if security at one of the other levels has been compromised. Ignoring SA is increasing individual securities. Policy led vulnerabilities that reduces our resilience