Transcript Slide 1

Climate Change and Agriculture in
the South-West Coastal of
Bangladesh
Presented ByMalay Krishna Madhu
Student Id:1009282004
&
SK. Abu Jahid
Student Id:1009282005
Introduction
• Climate change (CC) is the most alarming issue facing the
world today.
• The consequences of climate variability and CC are potentially
more significant for the poor in developing countries .
• The impact of CC on agriculture will be huge and substantive.
• Coastal people are highly exposed to a range of natural
hazards, from storms and cyclones to widespread flooding
and coastal erosion
Table: Potential Change of Climatic Variability
Year
Baseline
Average
2030
2050
Mean
Temperature Mean
Change (0C)
Change(mm)
Rainfall Sea Level
Rise(cm)
Annual
Dec, Jan, June, July Annual
Feb
Aug
Dec, Jan, June, July
Feb
Aug
1.0
1.1
0.8
+3.8
-1.2
+4.7
14
1.4
2.4
1.6
2.7
1.1
1.9
+5.6
+9.7
-1.7
-3.0
+6.8
+11.8
32
88
Source: Agrawala et al 2003:IPCC2001, 2007
Objectives of the Study
• To know the present scenarios of the climate
change (CC) impacts on agricultural sector in
the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh.
• To identify the potential impacts of climate
change (CC) on agricultural sector in the
South-West coastal region of Bangladesh
Methodology
• Firstly relevant recent papers,
Journals of the CC and
the report of IPCC are reviewed.
•Then the driving forces of CC have
been identified.
•There after the damaging events
of CC and its associated impacts on
agriculture have been recognized.
• And finally, the potential
impacts of CC on agriculture
mainly crop production are
predicted.
Figure: The overall methodology of study
Results and Discussion
•
Flood affects agricultural
production considerably.
Prolonged floods would tend to
delay Aman plantation, resulting in
significant loss of potential Aman
production
1400000
80
1200000
70
60
1000000
50
800000
40
600000
30
400000
20
200000
10
0
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Crop Damage
Area inundated
Source: Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh:
Consequences on Development, 2009
•
The flood in1988 caused reduction of agricultural production by some
45 percent.
•
In 1998, Aman production potential of some 2 to 2.3 Mha could not be
realized.
Area Inundated (%)
•
Figure : Crop damage (MT) due to historical flood
Crop Damage (MT)
Floods
Results and Discussion (cont….)
Cyclones-Storm Surges
•
In terms of CC, 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures
could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10 percent
• Cyclones bring severe winds, storm surges, and flood that
impact on lives, crops and property.
• Cyclone SIDR, on 15 November 2007, struck the South-West
coastal region of Bangladesh and total damage for the crops
sub‐sector is estimated at about BDT 28.4 billion. The loss of
production in all crops is 1.3 million metric tons, of which 63
percent (0.8 million metric tons) is aman rice.
• Cyclone AILA, which struck the southern coast of Bangladesh
on May 25, 2009 amount of damaged crops is estimated to be
340,660 acres.
Results and Discussion (cont….)
Sea Level Rise-Salinity intrusion
• Salinity intrusion would be a more acute problem in the South-West
coastal region.
• The South-West coastal region of Bangladesh would experience
severe drainage congestion due to 62cm sea-level rise and
embankments will be overtopped due to increased water level in the
peripheral rivers.
• The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be significant on
coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for public water
supply will fall.
• On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction
of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of
Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas.
Results and Discussion (cont….)
The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased
backwater effects would increase frequency of such devastating floods
under climate change scenarios. Prolonged floods would tend to delay
Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman
production.
• On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of
about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro
and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas.
• Changes in climate may affect irrigation requirements for all the three
cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif-I, and Kharif-II. Increase in temperature will
lead to escalating irrigation demands by 200 Mm3 for March only
Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios
The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….)
Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Simulation
HYV Aus
(‘000’
tones)
Percent
Change
HYV Aman
HYV Boro
(‘000’
tones)
(‘000’
tones)
Percent
Change
Wheat
Percent
Change
(‘000’ tones
Percent
Change
Baseline(1994-95)
702
0
4,484
0
6,200
0
890
0
CCCM
512
-27
4,170
-7
6,014
-3
712
-20
GFDL
512
-27
3,901
-13
5,766
-7
347
-61
330 ppmv CO2+20C
569
-19
3,901
-13
5,952
-4
561
-37
330 ppmv CO2+40C
435
-38
3,363
-25
5,766
-7
285
-68
580 ppmv CO2+00C
920
31
5,605
-25
7,626
23
1,228
38
580 ppmv CO2+20C
793
13
4,977
11
7,440
20
881
-1
580 ppmv CO2+40C
660
-6
4,529
1
7,192
16
534
-40
660 ppmv CO2+00C
983
40
5,964
33
8,060
30
1,317
48
660 ppmv CO2+20C
856
22
5,336
19
7,874
27
970
9
660 ppmv CO2+40C
730
4
4,888
9
7,626
23
614
-31
Source: Karim et al., 1998
The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….)
Table: The potential impact of Sea Level Rise and Flooding on Crop Yield
Scenario
Current
Climate
Crop Yields
Sea Level Rise
2020
Based on interpolation of published
data to be consistent with climate
change scenarios; rice yields have
increases of up to 5%.
With less optimistic assumptions
about the CO2 fertilization effect,
generally have yield change -5% to
+1%.
Based on interpolation of published
data to be consistent with climate
change scenarios; rice yields have
increases of up to 10%.
With less optimistic assumptions
about the CO2 fertilization effect,
generally yield changes from few
percent increase to 10% decrease.
Pests and crop disease could reduce
yields further.
Based on interpolation, a 0.1 Monsoonal floods
m SLR would inundate 0.2 increase yield loss.
MMT of production < 1%
of current total.
2050
0.3 SLR inundate
0.5 MMT of production ~
2% of current total.
Flooding
In 1988, yields were down
45% because of flooding.
Monsoonal floods
increase yield loss.
Source: World Bank ,2006
Conclusion
•
Floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges and Sea level rise and Salinity intrusion
are the continuing features of the South-West region of Bangladesh.
•
Crop production is more vulnerable sector in the coastal region. Developing
countries like Bangladesh is not responsible for CC, but they are severely
affected.
•
On the other hand, developed countries are main culprit for CC. If the
situation is continued 17% of the total area of Bangladesh will be inundated.
•
For resolving the potential impact of CC as soon as possible the developed
countries must be reached in a commitment, that they stop the responsible
activities of CC.
•
To cope with the present situation of CC in agriculture sector of Bangladesh,
research should be conducted for introducing of salinity and flood tolerant
variety of rice. Otherwise, the food security will be hampered in the near
future.
Recommendations
• New agricultural practices, such as floating bed cultivation
system
• Carry out research on new varieties e.g. Saline and flood
tolerant crops
• Coastal dykes to protect flood damage
• Conference of the Parties (COP-15) did not provide as our
expectation, in the next conference of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP16 have to raise our voice.
THANKS TO ALL
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