Transcript Slide 1

THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE
CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF
POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES
XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET)
Rome, 17-18 June 2010
Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis
Image source: www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/
18-7-2015
Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics
1
Overview
1. The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy Project
(ABC) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)
2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC
project
4. Conclusion
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
2
Climate system elements
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
Image source: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan; A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change
Research (July, 2003), modified by MOSI-T
1. The ABC project and MCA
ABC 
Policy options groups:
 Technology R&D investments
 Operational efficiencies/Infrastructures
 Market based measures
MCA 
Provides a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of those climate policy options
(alternatives) through a set of criteria:




Climate performance
Feasibility
Large scale implementation
Socio-economic impact
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
4
2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
MCA 
 definition of the problems/goals to be achieved
 identification of the criteria
 prioritization of the alternatives
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
5
2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
PROMETHEE & GAIA, developed by Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal at the (U.L.B. and
V.U.B., 1983), Prof. C. Macharis, Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal, PROMETHEE GDSS,
(1998)
PROMETHEE 
 allows the user to directly exploit
the data (alternatives an, criteria fk)
of the problem in a simple
evolutive multicriteria table (Performance Matrix)
 extensive sensitivity analyses as well as visual representations
(GAIA) of the data are available to the decision-maker
 particularly userfriendly software D-Sight, used for the ABC Impacts
policy options assessment
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
6
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
Goal
Policy options to reduce the total aviation climate impact
Criteria
Alternatives
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
7
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
The ABC consortium expert assessment of all the alternatives on all the criteria
Performance Matrix with high scores
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
8
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
PROMETHEE I
0
1
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
PROMETHEE II
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
Walking Weights
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
4.
Conclusion
 ABC Impacts project second phase. Ranking of the policy
measures is still under discussion within the ABC research
consortium
ABC Stakeholders feedback assessment to determine the
respective criteria weights
 By applying a MCA it is possible to some extent to delineate an
appropriate platform for future climate policy options compromises
 D-Sight software application has shown to be a valuable tool
related to a complex decision problem on behalf of sustainable
transport policy support
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek
12
Thank you for your attention
More ABC details and information available on:
http://www.climate.be/abci
http://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T
VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek