Transcript Slide 1

- Farming
coming to a planet near you
Dave Gustafson
Senior Fellow
Monsanto
8 November 2013
Third Lemann Dialogue
Agricultural and Environmental
Issues in Brazil
“X-Farming”
FARMING
• What is it?
– Farming to meet rapidly accelerating
demand, within an increasingly extreme
environment
• Advances in climate science are
clarifying likely future scenarios
– Extreme weather makes farming harder
• Challenges and opportunities
• Conclusions
2
Farming is at the Center of
Multiple Global Megatrends
• Growing world
population
•Supply/Demand
imbalance
•Nutrition, health,
& well-being
•Depletion of
natural resources
• Food and water
safety
FARMING
•Climate change
& impacts on
ecosystems
•Extreme weather
events
•Reduced
research
spending
•Agricultural
sustainability
•Decreased food
security
3
Rapidly Accelerating
Global Grain Demand
By 2030…
Corn
Wheat
FARMING
Soybeans
Cotton
Rice
3,000
2,500
2,000
+28%
+102%
+125%
1,500
1,000
+40%
500
1.4 B
MORE
PEOPLE
2X Global
GDP
30%
INCREASE IN
MEAT
CONSUMPTION
0
+76%
2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
GLOBAL GRAIN DEMAND (MMT)
Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture Division
4
Monsanto Fellow Assessments
FARMING
Climate Change Symposium (2007)
Climate Science Workshop (2013)
Andrew Leakey
Barry Goodwin
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Donald Ort
Mark Taylor
Nicholas Piggott
Steve Schneider
Steve Long
Thomas Zacharias
• Climate change is happening and
will impact agriculture
• Current business model is secure
– Well positioned for expected rate of
change
– MON technologies helping with
adaptation and mitigation
• Sustainability should become an
even greater focus for MON
Don Wuebbles
Lewis Ziska
Mike Castellano
David Lobell
John Trumble
XB Yang
• Evidence for accelerating climate
change has grown since 2007
• Climate is changing faster than the
more conservative model
predictions
–
Reinforces previous conclusions, but
near-term impacts greater than
previously concluded
• Little known about how climate
change will impact pests & disease
5
Temperatures are Increasing
FARMING
US Climate Change Science
Program Report (27 May 2008)
Complete summertime melt of
Arctic ice cap now imminent
• All temperature measures agree
surface warming is underway
• Unanimous corroborative data
(glaciers, migration dates, etc.)
• Unprecedented rate of warming
began in late 1960’s, linked by
modeling to man-made causes
6
Increases in Frequency and
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Pakistan (2010)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Floods
Drought
Des Moines (2008)
Heat waves
St. Louis (April 10, 2013)
Wind-storms
Severe t-storms
Tropical cyclones
FARMING
Texas (2011)
St. Louis (May 31, 2013)
Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012)
7
GHG Concentrations Linked to
World Population Growth
FARMING
World Population (billions)
7
6
5
4
Fastest growth occurred in 1962
(doubling time of 32 years)
3
2
1
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
8
GHG Forcing, Significance
Forcing Relative to the Year 1750 (W/m2)
Carbon Dioxide
3
Nitrous Oxide
Methane
FARMING
Man-Made GHG
Direct forcing only, minor GHG
gases not shown (CFC’s etc.)
2.5
This amount of added
radiational forcing already
equates to a nearly 2% increase
of absorbed solar radiation. That’s
like moving the earth a million miles
closer to the sun. Natural changes
in solar intensity (due to sunspot
activity, etc.) are on the
order of 0.1%.
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1968
1973
source: NOAA GHG Inventory
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
9
Climate Cycling of the Late
Pleistocene (glaciation events)
agriculture
developed
0
270
CO2
These swings are due
to “Milankovitch” orbital
forcings of a very small
magnitude (<0.5 W/m2)
240
-3
T (°F)
-6
210
180
-420000
420
420
-350000
350
350
-280000
280
280
-210000
210
210
-140000
140
140
-70000
70
70
Global Temperature Anomaly (°F)
3
300
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)
FARMING
-9
000
Years
BCEBefore Present
Thousands of
Years
Thousands of Years Before Present
source: Vostok ice cores
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Future Climate Assessment:
Adaptation in Ag is Essential
FARMING
Small changes in Earth’s average
temperature have significant impact
Current
trajectory
Impact of
immediate
mitigation
Challenge of increasing yields of key crops to support global food demand
becomes more difficult with climate change.
Significantly expanded research programs, as well as adoption of
agriculture technology, are needed to drive yield gains in staple crops.
11
Crop Impacts Globally
FARMING
Crops initially benefit, but
those in drought-stressed
areas projected to
decline
Heat and drought
stress during the
summer (esp. E, S)
Asian coastal
systems vulnerable,
especially megadeltas
Africa suffers
most, due to
drought, low
adaptive
capacity
Eastern Amazonia
becomes a savanna,
stress on some crops,
but temperate-zone
soy is helped
Severe
drought
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Impacts of Increased Frequency and
Intensity of Extreme Weather Events
Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: Wheat
2010 Drought and Heat Wave
United States: Corn, Soy
2012 Drought
Mexico : White Corn
2009 Drought
2011 Freeze
China: Wheat
2011 Drought
Colombia: livestock
Wheat
2010 Flood
Paraguay: Soybean
2008 Drought
Brazil : Soybean, Corn
2008 Drought
Argentina: Soybean, Corn
2008 Drought
FARMING
Sri Lanka: Rice
2011 Cyclones
Corn
South Africa: Corn
2011 floods
Australia: Wheat
2006 Drought
Source: World Bank
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13
Temperature Sensitivity of
Corn & Soy
FARMING
• Panel analysis of US rain-fed corn and soybean yields
identify strong role of time above 29°C (~84 °F)
source: Schlenker and Roberts, PNAS (2009)
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Predicted Livestock Impacts
FARMING
•
Forage quality generally declines
with increasing CO2
•
Increased heat, disease, and
weather extremes likely to reduce
livestock
productivity
15
Indirect Climate Impacts
FARMING
Weeds
Range and reproductivity increases
Pathogen and insect host implications
Insects
Lepidopteran and Coleopteran range expansion
Insect-vectored mycotoxin increase
Potential new pest targets (aphids, spider mites, etc.)
Diseases
Nematodes under hot dry conditions
Foliar and stalk diseases under hot and wet conditions
Soil Health
Changes in micronutrient content due to droughts
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Staple Crop Yield Gains Vary
with Level of Investment
FARMING
Impact of Reducing Rate Needed to Double
Food Wastage by 30%
Yields by 2050
Maize
Soybeans
Rice
Wheat
Sweet Potatoes
Pulses
Millet
Cassava
Sugar cane
Sorghum
Potatoes
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Annual Rate of Yield Gain (%)
Global rates of yield gain (1961-2011), based on data available
from FAOSTAT
2.5
17
Maize Yield Gaps Vary with
Level of Ag Intensification
source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press)
FARMING
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Ag Intensification Needed to
Reduce Maize Yield Gaps
FARMING
16
14
12
10
MT/HA 8
Breeding Trials
6
National Averages
4
Individual Country
Averages
2
0
High
Medium
Low
Country Level of Intensification
source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press)
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New Technology Combinations
are Needed to Successfully Adapt
FARMING
NEW HYBRIDS/VARIETIES
GERMPLASM IS THE CENTERPIECE
OF PERFORMANCE
BREEDING TRAITS
DISEASE, NEMATODE AND INSECT
PROTECTION
CROP PROTECCTION
AG BIOLOGICALS
SEED TREATMENTS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
INSECT PROTECTION
HERBICIDE TOLERANCE
DROUGHT TOLERANCE
IMPROVED YIELD POTENTIAL
AGRONOMIC SOLUTIONS
PRECISION AGRICULTURE
INCORPORATION OF I.T.
SOLUTIONS, COVER CROPS
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THANK YOU!
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