Transcript Corn Crap
Modeling Species’ Distributions with Applications to Agriculture Víctor Sánchez-Cordero Instituto de Biología, UNAM, México A. T. Peterson The University of Kansas, USA Agroecosystems and Biodiversity Systems of interacting species – Crop organisms – Pest organisms (rodents, insects, weeds) – Invasive species – Pollinators Behavior of such systems can be simulated via detailed understanding of the ecological requirements of each component of the system Case Studies Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural areas from advancing agricultural frontier, and climate change effects Risk assessment of potential for invasion by a new pest, a vector for Xylella fastidiosa Risk assessment for crop damage by rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico Modeling Corn Ecology in Mexico Points where maize is planted without irrigation are used to create an ecological niche model and geographic projection of potential distribution Inventario Forestal Nacional is used to locate areas actually (2000) planted in maize and areas holding natural vegetation Comparisons used to assess areas of potential expansion of the ‘frontera agricola’ Climate change predictions used to assess how this scenario will change over next 50 yr Points Where Maize Planted without Irrigation Ecological Niche Model Based on Points Ecological Niche Model Without Points Independent Data: Distribution of Maize Actual Distribution (GREEN) Overlaid on Potential Distribution (BLUE) Areas Suitable for Maize but Currently with Natural Vegetation (= Possible Expansion of Agricultural Frontier) Protected Areas Vulnerable to Expansion Protected Areas Most Vulnerable BAHIA DE LORETO LA PRIMAVERA SELVA EL OCOTE SIERRA DE ALVAREZ EL CIMATARIO NAHA RIA LAGARTOS LOS PETENES MONTES AZULES EL TEPOZTECO SIERRA DE QUILA CAÑON DEL SUMIDERO CUMBRES DE MAJALCA EL CHICO EL VELADERO COMPLEJO LAGUNAR OJO DE LIEBRE SIAN KA'AN CHAN-KIN LOS NOVILLOS CERRO DE GARNICA BONAMPAK CERRO DE LA SILLA CHAMELA-CUIXMALA LACAN-TUN MESETA DE CACAXTLA ZOQUIAPAN Y ANEXAS LA SEPULTURA LA MICHILIA CALAKMUL LAGUNAS DE MONTEBELLO SIERRA DEL ABRA TANCHIPA LAGUNA DE TERMINOS LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA ISLAS MARIAS UAYMIL EL TRIUNFO GOGORRON CORREDOR BIOLOGICO CHICHINAUTZIN HUATULCO YUM BALAM LAGUNAS DE ZEMPOALA LA ENCRUCIJADA RIA CELESTUN LOS TUXTLAS VOLCAN TACANA OTOCH MA_AX YETEL KOOH PANTANOS DE CENTLA BARRANCA DE METZTITLAN ARRECIFES DE XCALAK ANPs completely within the ecological niche of maize Protected Areas Least Vulnerable MAPIMI CASCADA DE BASSASEACHIC CONSTITUCION DE 1857 MAVAVI CAÑON DE SANTA ELENA SIERRA DE SAN PEDRO MARTIR SIERRA DE AJOS/BAVISPE MADERAS DEL CARMEN ISLA TIBURON EL PINACATE Y GRAN DESIERTO DE ALTAR ANPs outside of the ecological niche of maize, or mostly outside Vegetation Types Most Vulnerable Comunidad Damage SELVA BAJA PERENNIFOLIA 100 MATORRAL DE CONIFERAS 100 PALMAR 100 SABANA 100 SELVA BAJA ESPINOSA 100 SELVA BAJA SUBPERENNIFOLIA 100 SELVA ALTA Y MEDIANA SUBPERENNIFOLIA 99.9 SELVA ALTA Y MEDIANA PERENNIFOLIA 99.8 POPAL-TULAR 99.5 SELVA MEDIANA CADUCIFOLIA Y SUBCADUCIFOLIA 99.4 MANGLAR 99.2 MATORRAL ESPINOSO TAMAULIPECO 98.2 MATORRAL CRASICAULE 97.3 MATORRAL SARCOCRASICAULE DE NEBLINA 96.0 BOSQUE MESOFILO DE MONTAÑA 95.7 SELVA BAJA CADUCIFOLIA Y SUBCADUCIFOLIA 94.0 MATORRAL SUBMONTANO 90.9 Maize and Climate Change Maize and Climate Change: Difference Maps DX scenario then AX scenario Red = worsening for maize Blue = improving for maize Maize Plantations that Are Becoming Inviable Case Studies Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural areas from advancing agricultural frontier, and climate change effects Risk assessment of potential for invasion by a new pest, a vector for Xylella fastidiosa Risk assessment for crop damage by rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico Glassy-winged Sharpshooter Homolodisca coagulata Homalodisca and Xylella Known Points – Native Distribution GARP Model Inferred from Points Projection to California Test Model Predictions Risk Assessment in Brazil Case Studies Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural areas from advancing agricultural frontier, and climate change effects Risk assessment of potential for invasion by a new pest, a vector for Xylella fastidiosa Risk assessment for crop damage by rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico PREDICTIVE DISTRIBUTION OF RODENT PEST SPECIES AGRICULTURAL CENSUS DATA ESTIMATED CROP LOSS IN EACH MUNICIPALITY: PLANTED MINUS HARVESTED AREA IS CROP LOSS RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DISTRIBUTION OF RODENT PEST SPECIES? CROP RICE BEANS SUGARCANE CORN OAT COFFEE GRASSES SORGHUM WHEAT Total area (ha) 21,920 57,988 213,221 514,213 1,198 175,027 1’322,985 5,676 1,822 Area lost (ha) 1,359 9,426 69,670 49,189 239 9,427 5,315 555 378 CROPS RICE BEANS SUGARCANE CORN OAT COFFEE GRASSES SORGHUM WHEAT NATIVE RODENT PEST 1 SQUIRREL 13 RATS AND MICE 3 POCKET GOPHERS Stepwise multiple regression analyses Dependent variable: crop damage in each crop in the 207 municipalities for Veracruz. Independent variable: proportional predicted coverage of that municipality by each of the 17 rodent species CROP RICE BEANS SUGARCANE CORN OAT COFFEE GRASSES SORGHUM WHEAT r2 0.65, 0.07, 0.04, 0.11, 0.35, 0.04, 0.12, 0.07, 0.22, P < 0.0001 P < 0.05 P < 0.05 P < 0.05 P < 0.01 P < 0.05 P < 0.001 P < 0.1 NS CONCLUSION: Areas of crop damage are not distributed at random with respect to distributional areas of pest rodents … risk of crop damage can be predicted based on the ecological potential of the species causing the damage …. Summary Agroecosystem behavior can be predicted based on the ecological requirements of component species Risk of crop loss, crop inviability, and other phenomena can be predicted Economic importance of biodiversity informatics … dead animals in museums can inform human economies! Muito Obrigado [email protected]