Transcript yhteiskunta

ASQ Future Study 2008
“No Boundaries”
Juhani Anttila
Venture Knowledgist, Quality Integration
[email protected] , www.QualityIntegration.biz
October 29, 2008
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ASQ Future Study 2008
- Introduction
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ASQ launched its fifth Futures Study in December 14, 2007:
 ASQ sponsored its first “Futures Study” in 1995 to provide an understanding of the forces
that would shape the future of quality. Implications of these forces in 1995, and outcomes of
the subsequent studies in 1999, 2001, and 2005 profoundly influenced ASQ’s direction.
 In 2008 there was about 90 participants representing 23 countries and different aspect of
the economy from manufacturing, service, healthcare and education.
 Participation took place in an electronically hosted group process to develop, through a
series of progressive sessions, a consensus on a short list of key forces that will affect
quality and the quality profession.
 The involvement required between two and three hours between January 14 and March 3,
2008. Participants signed in three times at times convenient to them. Identifying the forces
of change will complete the first phase of the study and conclude your commitment. (“Delphi
methodology”)
 The study had several additional phases. The completed first phase – “the forces of
change” became the starting point for several discussions exploring the implications of those
forces. The first discussion occurred on May 4, 2008 in Houston, Texas, within a day-long
Futures program hosted by the International Academy of Quality (IAQ) and ASQ.
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First Round
From an initial inventory of more than 100 forces ASQ selected 40+ to the first round.
* Force was defined as “a powerful change or trend in a social, political, technological, or
behavioral area that will impact people’s lives”, and specifically those acting on the future of
“quality” were focused on. * Concept quality was not defined. For purposes of this study,
quality is what you think it is. * The future was defined as the next 15 years
Aging Population, High World Population, Global Citizens, Safety, More Disposable Income, Consumer Sophistication,
Ethical Considerations, Spiritual Renewal , Mass Medium , Internet Commerce, Innovation Slows, Social Responsibility,
Ethics and Quality Standards Merge, Knowledge Work Dwindles, Outsourcing, Labor Shortages,
Genetic Advances, Biotechnology, Distance Learning, Personal Manufacturing, Core Competencies, Telecities, Smart Dust,
Greenhouse Gases, Global + Local = Glocal, Corporate Corruption, New Traders, ISO, Decentralization, Quality Standards,
Economics, New Ideas, Meaning Matters, Generational Synergy, Learning Culture, Transparency, Associations,
Mass Customization, Waste, Globalization, Innovation/Creativity/Change, Value Creation, Changes in Quality
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In the first round
1) Select up to 10 forces you think are the most likely to shape quality in powerful and
forceful ways and tell us why.
2) Improve the inventory with forces you observe that are not on this list, or may be better
stated in other words and tell us why.
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From Round #1 to Round #2
Result of the Round 1 included following 95 items plus many pages of explanations:
Aging Population, High World Population, Global Citizens, Safety, Consumer Sophistication, Ethical Considerations, Mass Medium, Internet
Commerce, ocial Responsibility, Ethics and Quality Standards Merge, Outsourcing, Labor Shortages, Genetic Advances, Biotechnology, Distance
Learning, Core Competencies, Greenhouse Gases, Global + Local = Glocal, New Traders, Decentralization, Quality Standards, Economics, New
Ideas, Learning Culture, Transparency, Mass Customization, Waste, Globalization, Innovation/Creativity/Change, Value Creation, Changes in
Quality, Organizational Social Responsibility, Value Trends, Competitive Advantage, Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy, Emerging
Economies, Quality Management, Ethics, Customer Expectations, New Market Niches, Nanotechnology, Quality of Life, Global, Local, &
Globalization, Khronos to Kairos, Politics/Terrorism, Pharmacogenetics, Political Corruption, Generation Motivational Differences,
Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value Creation/Learning Culture/New Ideas/Changes in Quality, Identity/Security/Alternative Lives & Identities
Environmental Concern, Aging Population/Labor Shortage/Healthcare Crisis, Privacy, Aging Population/Labor Shortage, Internet Media,
Shortages of Specific Skilled Workers, 21st Century Technology, Scarcity of Resources, Rise of Information Services Economy, Agility,
Social/Professional Virtual Networking, Global Citizens/Internet Commerce/Outsourcing/Global+Local/Globalization/Knowledge Work
Dwindles, Quality/Innovation, Unforeseen Catastrophic Event, Ideological/Cold War Between U.S. and China, Biotechnology/Genetics/Ethics,
Geographical Preference, Informal Learning/Social Collaboration, Sense of Meaning, Exponential Growth of Information, More Demanding
Society, Appreciative Inquiry, Consumer Sophistication/Mass Customization/Value Creation, Global Quality Movement, Less Powerful U.S.,
Global Labor Price, Powerful Companies, Market Reconfiguration, Communities of Tolerance, Information Security, Healthcare, Product
Safety, Speed, Differentiation, Widening Have/Have Not Gap, Eco-efficiency, Management Competence, ISO, Virtual Offices, Service Industry
Sector, Long-term Profitability, Service-Profit Link, Quality Integrated into Education Curriculum Design
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For the next Round:
1) Select up to 10 forces you think are the most likely to shape quality in powerful and forceful
ways and tell us why.
2) Improve the inventory with forces you observe that are not on this list, or may be better stated
in other words and tell us why.
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From Round #2 to Round #3
Summary of the Round 2:
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1. Aging Population
14. Globalization
2. High World Population 15. Innovation/Creativity/Change
3. Global Citizens
16. Value Creation
4. Safety
17. Climate Change
5. Consumer Sophistication 18. Customer Expectations
6. Ethical Considerations 19. Quality of Life
7. Internet Commerce
20. Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value
8. Social Responsibility
Creation/Learning Culture/New
9. Outsourcing
Ideas/Changes in Quality
10. Biotechnology
21. Environmental Concern
11. New Traders
22. 21st Century Technology
12. Economics
23. Consumer Sophistication/Mass
13. Waste
Customization/Value Creation
24. Healthcare
Additionally a lot of explanations
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In the third phase:
1. You should select 10 of
the 24 forces and rank
order them – 10 being the
most significant, 9 the
second most significant,
and so on.
2. You should tell us why
you selected your 10
forces
Force
Results from the Round #3
 Scoring of the ranked 10 forces that
participants think are most likely to
shape the future of quality in powerful
and forceful ways. 1 - least
significant to 10 - most significant.
 57 pages explanations of why
participants selected the force.
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Total
Globalization
255
Social Responsibility
228
Innovation/Creativity/Change
208
Aging Population
174
Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value Creation/
Learning Culture/New Ideas/Changes in Quality
165
Healthcare
161
Environmental Concern
155
21st Century Technology
152
Internet Commerce
145
Customer Expectations
144
Consumer Sophistication
130
Ethical Considerations
126
Outsourcing
122
Quality of Life
118
Consumer Sophistication/Mass Customization/ Value Creation
116
Safety
114
High World Population
113
Value Creation
109
Economics
108
New Traders
98
Biotechnology
91
Climate Change
85
Global Citizens
80
Waste
48
The fifth Futures Study (*) of the American Society
for Quality in 2008
Forces that most likely shape the future of quality
in powerful and forceful ways
1. Globalization (#1 in 2005)
2. Social Responsibility (#8 in 2005)
3. New Dimensions for Quality (#2 in 2005)
4. Aging Population
5. Healthcare
6. Environmental Concern
7. 21st Century Technology
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No boundaries – The old
boundaries have been
obliterated.
These trends increase
uncertainty, variety,
variability, dynamics in
all areas of business
management.
The fifth ASQ Futures Study
– Another insight of the results
Rank of forces that most likely shape the future of quality in powerful and
forceful ways
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Relative
scoring
1. Aging population, Healthcare, Quality of life, Safety, High world population
680
2. Innovation/Creativity/Change/Value creation/Learning culture/New
ideas/Changes in quality
482
3. Globalization, Outsourcing, Global citizens
457
4. Customer expectations, Consumer sophistication/Mass customization/
Value creation
390
5. Social responsibility, Ethical considerations
354
6. Environmental concern, Climate change, Waste
288
7. 21st century technology, Biotechnology
243
8. Internet commerce
145
9. Economics
108
10. New traders
98
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Scenarios and effects on key forces
A. Utopian scenario:
- Global transformation: Innovation of a complex system
B. Preferred scenario:
- Global adaptation: Evolution toward a synergistic society
C. Business-as usual scenario:
- Global stagnation: The halt of human progress
D. Doomsday scenario:
- Global disintegration: The crisis of environmental collapse
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Implications of the preferred scenario
Implications for quality
Implications for organizations
Implications for the profession
The “Next Exit” to future success:
- Global, social, environmental scale
- Getting the message heard
- Process to systems (Call it the “Big Q”)
- Speed
- Relevance, knowledge, and learning
- The bottom line, the top line, and
the triple bottom line (“People, Planet, Profit”)
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Reference
ASQ (2008): ASQ’s future of quality study
http://www.asq.org/quality-progress/2008/10/global-quality/futures-study.pdf
What other material is available for the issue?
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