Transcript Opportunities for Green Engineering in Public Policy and

Perspectives on Environmental Regime in
Nepal: Climate Change & Issues in
Governance
Bhupesh Adhikary
World Conference on Recreating South Asia:
Democracy, Social Justice and Sustainable Development,
IIC, New Delhi,
24-26 February 2011
Overview

Atmospheric Science – Climate Change


Historical Perspectives
Scientific Assessment: Nepalese Atmospheric Environment




Environmental Policy Formulation and Governance




Observations
Models
Uncertainties/Recommendations
Sound environmental policy
Issues in climate change and governance
Nepal’s current model of action in climate change
Conclusions and recommendations
Historical Perspectives

Developed Nations









Svante Arrhenius, 1896 - CO2 and
warming

Simple model, Low CO2 levels, did
not anticipate exponential rise
1957 – International Geophysical Year
1962- Silent Spring Book
1970- Earth Day
1972- UNEP
1987- Montreal Protocol
1992- UNFCCC
1997- Kyoto Protocol
COP meetings

Nepal







Opened to the outside in 1950s
Modern Economic Development
Planning 1956

Environmental degradation- Soil
and Water Conservation
Department of Hydrological Survey –
1965, DHM -1967
Atmospheric composition and air
pollution 1980s
MOPE-1995, Acts-1996, 1997.
Signed treaties before focused
ministry, and regulations.
2000 – Studies on urban air and
limited to Kathmandu Valley
Climate Change issues in policy
documents 2000.
Historical Lessons

World has pondered on environmental issues
for more than a century and created a vast
amount of knowledge base.

Nepal has very limited and fragmented
knowledge about environmental issues and
climate change.

Documentation and knowledge about indigenous survival skills
degrading
Scientific Assessment: Nepalese
Atmospheric Environment

Summer Monsoon


Agricultural production and daily subsistence of
millions
Climatic Variables- Observations, GCM models



Temperature Distribution
Precipitation Statistics
Glacier Studies

snow cover, source of water during dry period
Scientific Assessment: Observations

Shrestha et al., 1999

Maximum Temperature trends – 1971 to 1994


Rise in maximum temperature trends
Altitudinal variation in rise of maximum temperatures.


Seasonal variation



High altitude showing higher rise
Highest rise in the post monsoon (October – November)
Aerosols??
Shrestha et al., 2000

Precipitation 1948 to 1994


Highly variable, show decadal variability, no clear trend
Decadal variability seen in different altitudes
Scientific Assessment: Observations Continued

Glaciers


Issues



In general are retreating from the Middle of 19th century to much of 20th
century (Mayeski et al, 1979, Raina 2010)
Is the rate of melt faster in the last several decades?
Is this accelerated melt due to global warming
Uncertainties



Limited peer reviewed papers, IPCC retracting the statements.
Work of NGOs such as ICIMOD are helping to create inventory
Work of Kulkarni et al., using remote sensing techniques , suggest that
small glaciers are melting faster and is due to global warming.
Scientific Assessment: Models

First usage of GCM in Nepal 1997



Handful more global model ensembles



Crude resolution, 2.22° x 3.75° complex topography
Limited physics and chemistry, no aerosol, step function CO2
Agrawala et al., 2003
NCSVT, 2009
Regional model



Shrestha et al, 2010
HADRM2 and PRECIS
GCM driven, unclear about regional emissions, aerosols?
Scientific Assessments: Lessons

GCM and regional models

Temperature over Nepal is warming




Rise in temperature varies 1.2 to 4.7 °C
Seasonality in warming, winter months more then others
Higher elevation warming more than lower elevation
Precipitation


Cannot satisfactorily reproduce observations
Variable, with no clear trend
Uncertainties/Recommendations

Nepal – LDC


Aerosols





Limited financial and technical resources, learn from world and region
High spatial and temporal variability
High loading in the winter months (ABCs)
BC second to CO2 in contributing to global warming
Seems to perturb monsoon circulation
“NO Regrets Development Policy”


Tie climate change mitigation with other co-benefits, such as indoor air
and health
Reduce BC emissions
Environmental Policy Formulation and
Governance

Environment – Government, Public Good, Cannot be
resolved by private sector alone

Sound Environmental Policy (Vig et al.,)





Problem recognition, different stakeholders definition and
perception
Scientific knowledge and solution possibilities
Role of media in awareness
State of economy and strength of opposing groups
Montreal Protocol
Climate Change issues in governance

Betsil et al., (2007), Decade of cities and
climate change research




Interface between knowledge and policy
Multi-level governance and policy fragmentation
Rhetoric versus reality on the ground
Applicable to Nepal as well
Nepal: Governance and Climate Change


Environment pollution: relatively new area, governance in
climate change has ways to go
Frequent structural changes in institution




INGOs / NGOs are the main drivers of environmental
policies


Ministry
Personnel
Outsourcing of work, 1st CDM project- consultant- baseline study
Government accepts their role

eg. “Mountain Alliance Initiative”

Cabinet Meeting at Everest, Rally in NYC and Copenhagen (COP)
Attract world attention, but will the Nepalese poor benefit?
Recommendation: Way Forward for Nepal

Government has to take the driver’s seat




Define lively-hood drivers and act to reduce poverty
Understand and document indigenous knowledge and survival
skills, enhance these further
Negotiations are taking place in national/international scale
impacts are on a local level
GLOF



“What flood risks one is actually trying to adapt to and what risks are seen as reasonable
is far from evident”
“No Regrets Development Pathway”
Instead of capacity building of everyone and everything, decide
the depth of training in the government, and instead provide
policy alternatives (BAT, BAU) and let the people decide.
Thank You !!
Questions ??