Transcript The Congressional Institute

Climate Change
Michael McKenna
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Methodology
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Focus Groups
• Eight groups consisting of 10-12 registered voters in the
middle of the political spectrum
• In 2, majority identified climate change as “immediate threat”
• In remaining 6, majority identified it as “major problem”
• Locations
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Atlanta
Tampa
Detroit
Minneapolis
LA
Denver
Houston
Philadelphia
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Nationwide Survey
• 1000 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error
• Conducted March 10 to March 14, 2008
• Random digit dialing to home phones
• Stratified for region, gender
MWR Strategies
April 2008
The issue context . . .
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Where do we fit in?
• Environment is a third tier issue
– It is tough to identify a candidate who has lost because of
environmental attitude/votes
• Climate change has become most important issue within the
set, but even that has diminished somewhat recently
• Reducing dependence on imported energy much more
important.
• Global warming not identified as most important global issue
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
60%
50%
40%
44%
30%
20%
19%
6%
10%
5%
5%
0%
Iraq
Economy
nat'l sec.
energy
health care
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most/second most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
80%
70%
68%
60%
50%
40%
45%
30%
20%
11%
10%
10%
15%
0%
Iraq
Economy
nat'l sec.
energy
health care
MWR Strategies
April 2008
What about the environment?
– 2% identified as most important
– 2% identified is as 2nd most important
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What would you say is the most important
environmental issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
40%
30%
25%
20%
16%
13%
10%
7%
4%
0%
global
warming
clean water
clean air
alternative
energy
energy ind.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What will be the most important environmental issue
or challenge facing the US in the long-term? (open code)
40%
30%
28%
20%
15%
10%
10%
7%
4%
0%
climate
change
clean water
clean air
alternative
energy
energy ind.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Wait a minute . . .
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is the most pressing or important
environmental issue facing the United States right now? (closed code)
(from February 2007)
40%
37%
30%
20%
13%
12%
10%
9%
10%
0%
global air pollution toxic or
warming
hazardous
waste
population
growth
water
pollution
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What will be the most pressing or important
environmental issue facing the United States in the long-term? (closed code)
(from February 2007)
50%
40%
38%
30%
20%
9%
12%
11%
6%
10%
0%
global air pollution toxic or
warming
hazardous
waste
population
growth
water
pollution
MWR Strategies
April 2008
. . . how does the
priorities argument do?
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which of the following is the most pressing or urgent global problem?
50%
40%
30%
32%
25%
22%
20%
16%
10%
0%
curing disease feeding the hungry safe drinking
water
global warming
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How important is affordable energy to our economy?
90%
80%
89%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
8%
10%
2%
1%
a little
not at all
0%
very
somewhat
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most important aspect of the energy we use? (open code)
40%
30%
24%
20%
13%
12%
11%
10%
0%
cost/affordability country of origin
environmental
effect
reliability
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming
or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
80%
70%
72%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
20%
0%
addressing global warming
reducing our reliance on foreign
sources of energy
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming
or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
80%
70%
60%
72%
50%
52%
40%
30%
36%
20%
10%
20%
0%
addressing global warming
all
reducing our reliance on foreign
sources of energy
liberals
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Would you support a global warming plan that resulted
in increasing our dependence on foreign sources of energy?”
80%
70%
71%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
22%
10%
0%
yes
no
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“America should put more emphasis on domestic energy sources like coal, even if that
means we move more slowly on meeting environmental goals.”
80%
70%
60%
50%
58%
40%
30%
39%
20%
10%
0%
agree
disagree
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Economics
• Voters have no illusions about who pays for things
• They have limited appetite for increased costs
• And very nearly no appetite for job losses
– females, self-identified liberals and those who voted
against Bush tend to care more about job loss
• The tenuous economy overhangs the entire
conversation
“If the federal government requires companies to take actions that cost them money, how likely is
it that those companies will pass along increased costs to consumers in electric bills, gasoline
prices, and home heating bills?”
90%
80%
70%
81%
60%
50%
40%
30%
13%
20%
3%
10%
3%
0%
very
somewhat
not very
not at all
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur
the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
80%
70%
60%
65%
50%
40%
30%
20%
28%
10%
0%
yes
no
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur
the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
80%
70%
76%
60%
65%
50%
40%
30%
20%
28%
20%
10%
0%
yes
no
all
Midwest
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year either in
higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices, or higher heating bills,
to address global warming?”
Mean
Median
=
=
554 dollars
50 dollars
*70% of respondents responded $500 or less
*18% responded more than $500
*35% responded zero
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher
gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
600
500
554
556
400
300
339
293
200
100
0
all
whites
AAs
<40K/yr
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher
gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
700
600
671
500
554
400
439
300
345
200
100
0
all
men
women
evangels
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher
gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
1100
1000
900
800
1026
700
600
500
400
300
554
286
200
100
0
all
the EU is doing better
the US is doing better
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of
increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be
1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?”
80%
70%
71%
60%
61%
58%
50%
56%
40%
30%
38%
36%
35%
26%
20%
10%
0%
all @ $1000
all @$3000
more likely
libs @$1000
libs @$3000
less likely
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of
increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be
$1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?”
70%
69%
60%
64%
50%
40%
48% 47%
48%
43%
30%
20%
31%
26%
10%
0%
post-grads@ post-grads@$3000>80K/yr @$1000 >80K/yr@$3000
$1000
more likely
less likely
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared
to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as
much as 80%?”
Mean
Median
=
=
426,000
1,000
*65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less
*5% responded more than 1 million
*35% responded zero
* among those who think the US is doing better, 50%
responded zero.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How
many jobs nationwide should we be prepared
to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as
much as 80%?” (mean in thousands)
700
600
500
594
400
426
300
200
245
100
0
all
men
women
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“I am going to read you five statements about the legislation. For each one, I
would like you to tell me whether it makes more . . . to support the legislation.”
80%
72%
71%
70%
58%
60%
50%
45%
40%
44%
43%
33%
36%
30%
20%
60%
49%
26%
21%
10%
0%
job losses
$3000 extra costs
more likely
$1000 extra costs govt' gain revenue
reduce global
temperatures
less likely
reduce carbon
emissions
“What percentage of our energy do you think comes from renewable or
alternative energy sources?”
Mean
Median
=
=
23.6
18
“Can you tell me the how many billions of dollars the US government
is spending each year to address climate change?”
Mean
Median
=
=
21.67
3.0
*42% didn’t know or refused
“Do you think carbon emissions have . . . in Europe/the US in the last 10 years?
70%
60%
63%
50%
40%
30%
37%
20%
21%
17%
10%
16%
16%
0%
increased
decreased
EU
same
US
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Who is doing a better job of addressing global warming?
60%
50%
44%
56%
37%
40%
32%
30%
32%
31%
25%
25%
20%
18%
10%
0%
EU
all
US
not Bush voters
don't know
Bush voters
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“I am going to read you a list of actions that the US government is currently
doing to address climate change. For each one I would like you to tell me
whether it is . . . important.”
better tax treatment for new
technologies
research into alternative energy
tax credits for renewable
sources
new standards for appliances
efficiency standards for building
increased fuel mileage
0%
10%
very
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
somewhat
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On a scale of 1 to 10,
where 1 is not at all certain and 10 is completely certain,
how certain do you think the science of global warming is?”
Mean
Median
=
=
5.8
6.0
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On a scale of 1 to 10,
where 1 is not very urgent and 10 is extremely urgent, how urgent
is it that we address global warming?”
Mean
Median
=
=
6.5
7.0
* self-identified liberals and those who voted against
Bush had medians of 10 and 9
“On that same scale, if you knew that efforts by the government to
reduce global warming would result in the loss of some jobs nationwide,
how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those
job losses to be justifiable?”
Mean
Median
=
=
7.4
8.0
* The means among females, self-identified liberals and
those who voted against Bush in 2004 were above 8.0.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On that same scale, if efforts by the government to reduce global
warming resulted in higher prices for things like gasoline, electricity,
and natural gas, how certain would the science of global warming have
to be for those higher prices to be justifiable?”
Mean
Median
=
=
7.6
8.0
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version A
“Which of the following is most likely to lead towards solutions to
global warming and other environmental challenges?”
50%
40%
37%
35%
30%
19%
20%
10%
0%
consumer demand
scientists dev. better
technologies
govt policies
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version B
“Which of the following is most likely to lead to the
technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
60%
50%
57%
40%
30%
37%
20%
10%
0%
consumer demand
govt policies
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version B
“Which of the following is most likely to lead to the
technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
60%
50%
57%
54%
40%
43%
30%
37%
20%
10%
0%
consumer demand
all
govt policies
liberals
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Solutions
“And which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution?
(from February 2007)
50%
40%
30%
33%
29%
28%
20%
10%
0%
consumers demanding more
environmentally sensitive products
scientists and engineers developing governments requiring reductions in
technologies
carbon emissions
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Solutions
“Which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution?
(from January 2006)
60%
50%
50%
40%
28%
30%
20%
6%
10%
0%
force nations by companies by law, invest in new technologies, and
treaty, or regulation to reduce
develop processes that reduce
carbon emissions
place an economy-wide tax on
carbon emissions
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“The US should show leadership on global warming,
even if nations like China and India do not follow our example.”
80%
70%
78%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
agree
disagree
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“To help reduce carbon emissions, which of the following would you prefer?”
40%
30%
33%
20%
19%
20%
21%
10%
0%
taxes on energy, gov't regulations taxes with the none of the above
with the revenue on companies revenue used to
going to efficiency
offset other taxes
and research
MWR Strategies
April 2008