Transcript Climate change

Belgian global change
research 1990-2002
Climate change
Pr. J.P. van Ypersele,
Université catholique de Louvain
With support from: Ph. Van Haver,
S. Van Homwegen, E. Vanvyve, V. Coulon,
and Ph. Marbaix
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
[email protected]
Questions 1-5
1.How is the earth’s climate changing now?
2.Is present climate change different from past
climate change?
3.Why has the climate changed in the past?
4.Why is climate changing now?
5.How will climate likely change during the
21st century?
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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Questions 6-10
• 6. Are unexpected climate events possible in
the longer term?
• 7. Will climate change affect atmospheric
ozone?
• 8. Will the Kyoto Protocol save the climate?
• 9. Where has Belgian research made a
difference in the international effort?
• 10. Key uncertainties to be adressed
12 years of researches can not be summarized in 10 minutes,
only limited snapshots will be shown.
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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How is the climate changing now ?
1833
2002
Annually-averaged surface air temperature at BrusselsUccle, 1833 > 2002 (IRM) (fig 2.5, p67)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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How is the climate changing now ? (2)
Sea-ice thickness decreases as well:
(b)
(a)
1980
1990
2000
In the Arctic Ocean, the sea-ice surface is decreasing
at an average rate of 25.000 km2 / year
(nearly the surface of Belgium)
(fig 2.10, p70)(Source: ULB-GLACIOL)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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How is the climate changing now ? (3)
Tropical regions :
Rising temperatures at
Bujumbura,Tanganyika
lake.
Links with ENSO (El Niño),
lake productivity studied
by ENSO and CLIMLAKE
teams (RUG, MRAC, UCL,
FUNDP, ULg).
(fig 2.12, p71)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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Is present change different from past ?
+0.4C
0C
-0.2C
1000
1500
1800
Climate of the last millennium :
. climate reconstructions (dark and light blue)
. global 3D atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean model (grey;
red=mean) (UCL-ASTR) (fig 2.17, p73)
2000
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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Is present change different from past ?
Model simulation over the last glacial cycle (VUB)
ice-covered area :
at the last glacial maximum,
time evolution (last 120 000 Y,
change connected with earth
orbit)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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How will climate change
during the 21st century ?
•In addition to
researches seeking to
better know and
understand the “global
picture” of the
anthropogenic warming,
other studies involves
more detailed and
regional aspects.
Model results for the retreat of the Sofiyskiy
Glacier (Altai Mountains, South Siberia),
which may completely disappear (VUB-DG)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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How will climate change
during the 21st century ?
3 hydrological models / Gete basin
Total basin discharge (mm/month)
(IRM, KULeuven, FUSAGx, ULg)
0
with T and precip from model 1 (CGCM1)
with T and precip from model 2 (ECHAM4)
0
(fig 2.35, p91)
• The more
greenhouse
gases, the more
warming and
damages
• Uncertainties are
still large and
relates to serious
issues, e.g.
flooding and/or
drought severity
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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Unexpected longer-term events ?
(fig 2.28, p82)
- Atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions around Antarctica
involve complex processes.
- The West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially unstable; its melting
may contribute to a large long-term sea-level rise (ULB-GLACIOL)
Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change
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Conclusions
• Belgian climate research has contributed
significantly to international research efforts
such as WCRP, IGBP, and to the IPCC.
• It has contributed to show and quantify the
sensitivity of the earth’s climate to natural
and human factors
• It is time for action, way beyond Kyoto, and
research is needed also about solutions,
and obstacles to their implementation
• BUT fundamental climate research
continues to be essential for providing the