Transcript Professor Mark Maslin, Head of Geography and

UCL Environment Institute
Climate Change and Complexity
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21stC Challenges: Climate Change and Global Poverty
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10 million children starve to death each year
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Communicate the basic science – it is simple physics
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Stored
Sunlight
COAL and Oil
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80% from industry and 20% from deforestation
but half is absorbed by the biosphere and oceans
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UCL Environment Institute
2005
Hacking into scientists emails does not make the evidence go away!
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UCL Environment Institute
How ‘super’ are the models?
Depends on the data you put
In the model.
Cooling and warming factors
Science is good, but predictions
concerning society are not …
Think 1910 or even 1980?
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General Circulation models
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Society is the biggest unknown - so we build scenarios
More economic
A1
B: balanced
Fi: fossil-intensive
T: non-fossil
A2
More global
More regional
B1
More environmental
B2
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UN Predictions of global population in billions
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6oC warming and 1 metre sea level rise by 2100
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Climatic Variability, Change and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
Coping Range
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Summer 2003: Not Anomalous by 2040
Stott et al., 2004 Nature
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Flood risk
Change in storm surge height
Height for 50yr return period;
2080s A2 emissions
Sea Level Rise
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What are the effects of climate change
more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat waves
- may leading to food and water insecurity,
- may leading to migration and conflict
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How can we deal with uncertain climate change?
Twin Approaches
What ever we do now, there will still be climate change
So we need to
1. Mitigate (reduce our carbon foot-print)
2. Adapt (protect our people)
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What is dangerous climate change?
• Exeter Meeting Feb 2005
• G8 9 July 2009
• Agreed at Copenhagen
2°C
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CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
Source: Hadley Centre
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Contraction and Convergence
Global
Deal?
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Total and per capita emissions – target is 2 tons/capita
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What is the UK plan
1. Decarbonise electricity generation
2. Increase energy efficiency
3. Move to electric dominate transport
4. Adapt to predicted climate change
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Domestic fossil fuel & industry process CO2 emissions
Domestic fossil fuel and industry process CO2 emissions
year)
(MtCO
2 per
(MtCO2
per year)
UK possible path to 80% cut by 2050
Services
Services
500
500
Residential
Residential
400
400
Tran
sport
Transport
Hyd
rog en
Hydrogen
300
300
Electricity
Electricity
200
200
Upstream
and&
Upstream
non-sector
sector
100
100
Indu
stry
Industry
0
2010
2000
non-
2010
2010
2020
2020
2030
2030
2040
2040
2050
2050
Agricu
lture
Agriculture
31
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Growth in UK living standards: with 80%
emissions cut
GDP per capita 2006=100
250
0.5 – 2.0%
lower
200
150
100
0
2006
2020
2030
2040
Business as usual
80% emissions cut
2050
32
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GOOD NEWS 1
70% of the World Energy
requirements for 2030 has yet
to be built
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GOOD NEWS 2: Carbon Trading - ETS and Future US systems
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UCL Carbon Auditors Limited
US Patent for calculating annual carbon flux at a 250m resolution for
Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Grid for Terrestrial Carbon Credits
Annual
Carbon Flux
?C_AFOLU
534.1
0
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Gabon Annual Carbon Flux
Example of Gabon
Customers obtain:
Certainty of carbon stock and
carbon stock changes, which are:
1. Assessed and monitored
against international standards
and procedures, providing –
2. Confidence in the accuracy of
the data obtained,
underpinned by –
3. Highly reputable expertise from
the CAL team based at UCL
ĘC_AFOLU
198.9
Gabon
Gabon Nature Reserve
0
UN REDD+ we need to make a tree worth more
standing up and being cut down
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s to prepare for
Adaptation – aim for 2˚C but plan for 4˚C
ply
nity
nal
Adaptation essential to
protect the people
Science can give broad
picture of what the future
may hold to design
policy
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Some thoughts
1.Policy makers need to understand
uncertainties in the science so they
can make informed decisions
2. Climate change is just one of many
problems that must be tackled, but it
can make other problems worse
3. Alternative Energy .. essential as
development needs power and
we must alleviate global poverty
4. Natural resources such as forest
need to commodified to finance
development
5. Global deal must include
Developing countries – can not
fail again like Copenhagen
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Ethics and morals
“The poorest and those who have contributed least
to climate change will be first affected”
“The carbon footprint of the poorest 1 billion people is
around 3% of the world’s total footprint……loss of life will be
500 times greater in Africa”