Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Climate Analysis and Modeling in

Climate Science Research
in Support of the Wind
Power Industry
Prepared for Visit to ISU by Florida Power and Light
• Wind resource
availability
• Seasonal prediction
• Impacts of climate change
• Environmental impacts
In the Upper Midwest, Wind
Resources are Influenced by:
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Seasonal pressure patterns
Diurnal temperature stratification
Buffalo Ridge
Low-level jet
El Niño/La Niña (?)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (?)
North Atlantic Oscillation (?)
Climate change (??)
“Given that a 1% error in wind speed
estimates for a 100 MW wind generation
facility can lead to losses approaching
$12,000,000 over the lifetime of that plant,
a better understanding of the physical and
dynamic processes across the range of
scales that create a particular wind climate
is needed.”
Draft recommendations, DOE Workshop on Research Needs for
Wind Resource Characterization, 14-16 Jan 2008, Broomfield,
CO
Seasonal
and
Interannual
Variability of
Wind
Speeds
Wind Speed (m/s)
departures from
monthly means from
70-m tall towers in
Minnesota
Klink, K., 2007: J. Appl. Meteor.
Clim. 46, 446
Seasonal
and
Interannual
Variability of
Wind
Speeds
Wind Speed (m/s)
departures from
monthly means from
70-m tall towers in
Minnesota
Klink, K., 2007: J. Appl. Meteor.
Clim. 46, 446
Seasonal
and
Interannual
Variability of
Wind
Speeds
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Seasonal
and
Interannual
Variability of
Wind
Speeds
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Seasonal
and
Interannual
Variability of
Wind
Speeds
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Seasonal Climate Prediction
Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling
(MRED) of Multi-GCM Seasonal
Forecasts*
- Iowa State University
- Experimental Climate Prediction Center (UC San
Diego)
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
* NOAA funding 2008-2011
Trends in
Wind
Speeds,
1973-2005*
Observations
do not agree
with
reanalysis
* Pryor,Barthelmie,
Takle, Anderson,
2008. EGU Annual
Meeting, Vienna
North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment
Program (NARCCAP)
An international, multi-agency program
to produce multiple realizations of
future scenario climates at regional
scales by use of global climate models
(GCMs) and regional climate models
(RCMs)
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
1960-1990 current
CCSM
HADAM3
link to EU
programs
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
Iowa State/
PNNL
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
Contact information:
Eugene S. Takle
[email protected]
515-294-9871
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Professor of Aerospace Engineering (courtesy appointment)
Director, ISU Climate Science Initiative