Transcript PROMISE Predictability and variability of monsoons and the

PROMISE
Predictability and variability of monsoons and the
agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change
A 3 year research project funded under Framework 5 of the
European Union (grant number EVK2-CT-1999-00022)
For more information see http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise
Talk outline
•Goals and structure of PROMISE
•Examples of PROMISE research
•International conference we are planning
for 2003
World population prospects …
Source: United Nations Population Division 1998
 India predicted to be the most populated country by 2050
PROMISE Partners
Bologna
University of Reading
CIRAD
CNRM
DMI
ICTP
CEH
LMD
MPI
The Met Office
ECMWF
CRC
CINECA
IITM
Goals of PROMISE
PROMISE aims to improve understanding of:
•The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits
that would accrue in terms of the management of
water resources and agriculture
•The impacts of climate change on tropical
countries, in particular on the availability of water
resources for human use and on the productivity of
crops and the potential changes in natural
vegetation
Links with end-users
•Development of a data archive
•Visits to CGIAR centres
•ICTP workshop (held in 2001)
•International conference to be held in 2003
For more information see:
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise/research/endusers
PROMISE Research and Support
Natural variability and
predictability of current
monsoon climates
Assessment of
anthropogenic climate
changes for monsoon
climates
Impact of climate
change on ground
hydrology and
agriculture
+
Development of a database
of observed and simulated
data on meteorology,
hydrology and agriculture
Establishment of
active links with
climate scientists in
monsoon affected countries
Main areas of PROMISE research
Sensitivity of
monsoon variability
to sea surface
temperatures
ERA-40
Seasonal
predictability and
natural variability of
monsoon climates
Hydrological and
agricultural impacts
of climate change in
monsoon-affected
countries
Sensitivity of
monsoon variability
to land-surface
processes
Impact of land-use
changes on future
monsoon climates
DEMETER
Assessment of
future monsoon
climates
ERA-40
Integrated climate modelling
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be
integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be
integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield
estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that
can be combined with GCMs to produce long
term forecasts of yields that can be used for
planning (HAPPY)
GWAVA
Global Water AVailability
Assessment
Jeremy Meigh
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
(Institute of Hydrology)
Wallingford, UK
in conjunction with
British Geological Survey
Overall objective
• Develop a methodology for the assessment of
water resources in relation to water demands
which can be applied globally
GWAVA Detailed Objectives
• Consistent methodology at the global scale
• Representation of spatial variability in water
availability and demands
• Representation of seasonal and year-to-year
variability in water resources
• Accounting for the real properties of water
resources systems
• Tackling problems of international basins
• Combined treatment of surface and groundwater
• Ability to take into account scenarios of
population growth, urbanisation, economic
development and climate change
General approach
• 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid for both water availability and demands
• Linking grid cells to simulate river network
• Models to account for effects of:
• lakes, reservoirs and wetlands
• abstractions and return flows
• inter-basin transfers
• Water demands based on current and projected population and
livestock numbers, information on irrigation and industrial use
• Indices of water availability versus demand derived at the grid cell
scale
Inputs and data sources
• Physical and water resources data




Elevation, River network
Vegetation, Soil type
Lakes, Reservoirs and Wetlands
Aquifer properties
• Climate
 Rainfall - 30 year time series, Evaporation
• Demand related information
 Population, Livestock numbers, Industrial and
Irrigation demands
River network and cell linkages
Indian Ocean
Change in annual water demand, 2050
Change in water availability index
2050, taking in to
account:
 Supply changes due to
climate change
 Demand changes due to:
 increasing population
-2.00 to -1.90
 population distribution
-1.75 to -1.50
 increasing per capita
-1.00 to -0.50
-0.20 to 0.20
0.50 to 1.00
1.50 to 1.75
1.90 to 2.00
demands (improved
living
standards and
industrialisation)
Application of model to West Africa
River network
Density of trees
Soil type
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be
integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be
integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield
estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that
can be combined with GCMs to produce long
term forecasts of yields that can be used for
planning (HAPPY)
DHC_CP
Diagnostic Hydrique des Cultures
Champs Pluviométriques
Crop Water Balance Calculation
Using Satellite based Rainfall Estimates
Presented by :
Abdallah SAMBA, Agrometeorologist
AGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGER
Trieste, June 2001
AGRHYMET
CIRAD
Introduction
• Need to forecast the yields of food
crops in order to :
• best manage the cereal stocks
• control the distribution of food
• start food aid in time
• Using water balance simulation to
obtain parameters which enable
estimation of yields.
Water fluxes and their effects
on agricultural hydrosystem (
(
)
)
Agricultural
production
Precipitation
Soil
evaporation
Crop
transpiration
Runoff
Erosion
Drainage
Capillary rise
Ground water
Lixiviation
Simplification for Water Balance simulation
(The DHC4 model )
Agricultural
production
Precipitation
Crop
transpiration
Soil
evaporation
Drainage
Ground water
METEOSAT
Satellite
WATER BALANCE
SIMULATION
n years
x stations
Rainfall data
n stations
 File
 Screen
 GIS
 Spreadsheet
 Printer
RESULTS
Stochastic Rainfall Generation
Parameter Calibration
DATA BASES
 PET
 Historical rainfall data
AGRHYMET
Agrometeorological
Stations
CIRAD
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be
integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be
integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield
estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that
can be combined with GCMs to produce long
term forecasts of yields that can be used for
planning (HAPPY)
Combined weather/crop
forecasting for
groundnut in India
Andy Challinor, Tim Wheeler and Julia Slingo
University of Reading
Weather


Soil
Farm

- management
- decisions
Crop
Genotype
Country +
district
field
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
T
i
m
e
s
c
a
l
e
GCM
Crop
models
Country +
district
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
T
i
m  rainfall
e
s  groundnut
c
a
l
e
field
Country +
district
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
T
i
m  rainfall
e
s  groundnut
c
a
Large area
l
model
e
field
Huge Area Potential Peanut Yield
(HAPPY!!) model
Pod yield
Biomass
transpiration
efficiency
Leaf canopy
Development
stage
Transpiration
temperature
rainfall
Root system
RH
Soil water
Calibrating and testing HAPPY
• Calibrate using field/district data.
• Test in hindcast mode using ERA-40
data to drive HAPPY.
• Compare predicted crop yields with
observed crop yields.
• Re-calibrate HAPPY?
General Circulation Model
weather
Large area model
spatial
parameters
Crop model
Crop model
(HAPPY)
uncertainties
Probabilistic outputs
forecast
output
crop
processing
forecast
International PROMISE
conference
24th – 28th March 2003
ICTP in Trieste
currently sponsored by
EU PROMISE, ICTP, WCRP,
START/CLIMAG
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological
impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological
impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Conference topics
•The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology, agriculture
and natural vegetation in monsoon-affected countries
•Seasonal predictability of monsoon climates and the management of
water resources and agriculture
•Data provision for scientists from monsoon-affected countries using the
PROMISE data archive as an example.
•Use of seasonal forecasts as an operational tool
•Applications of crop and hydrological model output to decision-making
processes in developing countries
•Future of integrated climate/impacts modelling
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological
impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Planned sessions
1. Seasonal predictability and natural variability of
monsoon climates
2. Assessment of future monsoon climates in
response to anthropogenic climate change
3. Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface
processes
4. Agricultural impacts of climate change
5. Hydrological impacts of climate change
6. Bringing together scientists and end users
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological
impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Participants
•PROMISE partners
•Representatives from aid agencies
•Climate scientists from developing countries
•Policy makers / people involved with long term
planning
•European and American scientists working on
PROMISE-related topics
Summary
•PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project which aims to
improve understanding of the impacts of climate
change on monsoon environments
•An international conference is planned for March 2003
which we hope will involve both researchers and endusers of research
•FAO’s involvement in PROMISE and particularly the
conference would provide an exciting opportunity for
collaboration
Further information
Find out more about PROMISE:
•web site: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise
•brochure – a few copies here also download from the
web site
•E-mail or phone me: [email protected]
+44 118 9316608
•attend the next annual PROMISE meeting in mid-May
in Paris