Transcript TOR: Socio-Economic Factors of KSA Present and Future

First Generation Vulnerability Assessments:
What can/should they do?
25 July 2012
Prof. Burkhard von Rabenau, Ph.D.
GIZ
Environmentally and Climate-Friendly
Urban Development in Da Nang (ECUD)
Motivation
Da Nang Vulnerability Assessments
• PEMSEA (2004) focused on Disaster Risks
• DaCRISS, JICA (2007-2010) focused on Urban Strategy
• ACCCRN, Rockefeller (2008-2010) CC Adaptation
• City/CCCO, Da Nang PC (2011) CC Adaptation
Based on existing experience
• How should small communities prepare CC assessment?
• How can they do so w/o assistance?
• What parts of Da Nang methodology should be adopted, what
discarded?
• What should the objectives be of a 1st Generation Assessment?
• For action planning, what should be done now, what should be
postponed for later?
Key Messages
First Generation Assessments
 Principal purpose is Mobilization and Start-up. There are many iterations
to come.
 Major concrete decisions come only after mainstreaming
 Climate change adaptation is one of many objectives, must be balanced
against others of equal importance
Replication with lesser resources is possible
 Often CC Assessments do both too much and too little
 Limit objectives to awareness, exploration, work program
 Use existing regional CC rather than own forecasts
 Be incomplete, limit analysis to priority hazards
 Avoid detail not later used
 Cooperate with others
 Focus on plausibility and story line, quantify later
 Use indicators rather than abstract concepts
 Use disaster risk and DRR as starting point, is already familiar
Urban Vulnerability/Risk Assessment (Illustrative Only)
A
Vulnerabilities
Primary CC Factors
General Impacts
Climate Change
Trends
40 Yr Climate Change
• Sea Level Rise
30cm
• Temperature
Increase 2Deg C
• Avg Precipitation
up
• Seasonality more
pronounced
Assets
Human, ManExposure Assumptions
Made, Natural
40 Year Exposure
Changes
• Population doubles
• Income pc triples
• Direction of land
devlpt unchanged
Increased Storm
• Current regulations
Frequency & Severity • Current DRR level
•
Type of Hazard
Increased flooding
(area, depth)
Rising drought
condition
• Continued flood
plain settlement
• Warning system
improving w time
• Awareness rising
• Water demand
doubles in 40 years
• No conservation
policies
• No new reservoirs
• No groundwater
protection
•
Rising Land Erosion, No protection of land
Saline Intrusion
No sea walls
No change in
Income
Quality of Life
Risk
Indicator
(Intensive Form)
Risk Today
Current
Risk in 40 YearsAdaptive Capacity
• Increased energy
consumption due to
rising temps
• Loss of land, infrastr
• Loss of factories
• Livestock loss
• Fishing vessel loss
Capacity to decide weak
• Data base weak
• Hazards models none
• Planning/coordton weak
• Governance (regulation
&enforcement ltd
• Finance for CC limited
• Policy framework
Willingness to decide weak
• Wrong incentive structure
Adaptation Options
Immediate Priorities
Upgrading Governance and
Knowledge Base
• Data base dvlpt
• Planning, coordination
• Participatory methods
• Scientific know-how
Awareness Raising
Infrastructure Hardening
Mainstreaming
• Rationalize decisions
• Use objective ctiteria
• Data base dvlpt
• Awareness raising
• Mainstream into SEDP
• Adjust Master Plan
• Project risk assessment
• M&E
• Worker days lost
• Earnings lost
• Labor income lost
• Crops damage (has)
• Livestock loss
vessel
• Loss of land, infrastr •• Fishing
Work days
lostloss
• Damage to buildings • Business Earnings
• Damage
lost
• Labor income lost
• Crops damage
• # lives lost/100,000 Loss High
• # housing units
Prob Low
damaged/100,000
Risk Medium
Loss High
Prob Medium
Risk High
• Strengthen codes
• Offer finance
• Upgrade preparedness
• Codes
• Enforcement
• Project CC risk
assessment
• # lives lost/100,000 Loss High
• # housing units
Prob Low
damaged/100,000
Risk Medium
• Avg # of days
housiing units are
flooded pa
Loss High
Prob Medium
Risk High
• Data collection
• Flood modeling
• Drainage modeling
•M& E
• Master Plan Review
• Infrastructure project
review
• Loss of agric/forest
land
• Loss of city trees
• Crop loss
• Output loss
• Rising cost of
production
• Reduced quality of
life
• Customer days of
water curtailment
per 100,000
Loss low
Prob Low
Risk Low
Loss Medium
Prob Medium
Risk Medium
• Alter flood plain dvlpt
• Resettlement
• Build Reservoirs, Dikes
• Integrated river mgmt
• Elevate infrastructure
• Improved drainage
• Modeling
• Upgrade preparedness
• Change building codes to
reduce water consumption
• Construct reservoirs
• Shadow price water
• Incentives to conserve
• Curtailment planning
• Water management system
• Loss of land (has)
• Land productivity
decline
• Loss of wells
• Relocation of water
intake
• Loss of income
• Loss of production
• Loss of water
•
• Loss of land (has
equivalent, of value
in VND)
Loss low
Prob Low
Risk Low
Loss Medium
Prob High
Risk Medium
Land Erosion
• Abandon eroding land
• Reforestation
• Mangrove preservation
• Dune fortification
• Reduced beach urbanization
Salinity Intrusion
• Adjust crop type
• Reduce well abstraction
• Build sea gates
• Price Well Water
• Monitor wells
• Monitor salinity
• Monitor erosion
• Map data
• Prepare salinity model
• Adjust building codes for
water conservation
• Indicator preparation
•M& E
Climate Change and Its Impacts
Scenario Analysis (exists)
 Use MoNRE Regional scenarios: Sea level rise, change in temperature and
rainfall
 Variations from regional average too small to matter
Identify secondary/tertiary hazards
Type of hazards
 Flooding, inundation: area, depth, frequency, location
 Saline intrusion: area, impact
 Storms, tai
Source of Information
 Use data from DRR action plans/Flood Committee
Identify Historical Disasters
Mostly exists for major disasters
Use ‘Climate Plus Approach’ – current hazards + things will get worse
• Rely on current situation as starting point
• Limited exposure forecasts, vulnerability horizon non-specific
• Uses capacity experience with recent disasters
Exposure Analysis
Cause/Effect
 Exposure determines vulnerability and risk
 Reverse also holds: risk changes how people behave
Time Horizon
 Identical to climate change scenario
 In Climate Plus Approach say city & income grow or say double in 20-40
years
 In Full Approach specify time, say t = 0, 20, 40 years
Key elements
Base the elements on indicators used in vulnerability analysis and the need
of the risk analysis
 Scale: Population, employment
 Unit Values: Income, assets (relate value land, life GDP pc)
 Land Use: Direction of growth relative to hazards, density
 Policies: Conservation policies, building regulations
Vulnerability Assessment
Cause Effect
 Depend on two scenarios: Hazards and Exposure
 Vulnerabilities can impact policies and hence exposure
Types
 Capital Cost ($): Human, Man-made, Natural resources (Loss of
housing, infrastructure, forests, land, quality of land etc)
 Current Operating Losses ($/unit time): Loss of wages, output,
productivity, etc)
Vulnerability Descriptors
 Scoring: Abstract, difficult to give meaning, difficult to aggregate
 Verbal explanation: Intuitive, concrete,
 Indicators: Can be quantified; can be in intensive form
• Loss of life (in VND) due to storms per 100,000 population
• Income loss from flooding as % of monthly GDP
• Hectares of land lost (in has or VND) due to erosion
Risk Assessment: Qualitative
Illustrative Risk Analysis: Current
Vulnerability
Unit Value
High
Low
High
Low
Exposure,
# of Units
High
High
Low
Low
Impact
High
Medium
Medium
Low
High
High
High
High
Likelihood
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
High
Medium
Medium
Risk
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
High
High
Medium
Risk
Medium
Medium
Low
Illustrative Risk Analysis: 20-40 Years from now
Vulnerability
Unit Value
High
Low
High
Exposure,
# of Units
High
High
Low
Impact
High
Medium
Medium
High
High
High
Likelihood
Low
Low
Low
Risk Analysis: Quantitative Illustration
Loss of Life
 From exposure analysis: Population 1,000,000; income pc pa $1,000
 From vulnerability analysis annual loss of life per 100,000 population: 0.5
 Value of life: 100 times annual income (based on people’s own risk behavior and
revealed preferences)
 Current annual risk: $1,000x100x 0.5 x 1,000,000/100,000 = $500,000
 Future annual risk (40 years hence):
•
•
Population 2m, income pc pa $3,000, future loss per 100,000 is 0.6
Annual Expected Loss: $3,000 x 100 x 0.6 x 2,000,000/100,000 = $ 3,600,000
 Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF
Loss of Land (due to salinity, erosion, sea level rise)





Exposure analysis: Avg value of eroding land $10,000/ha; $30,000/ha in 40 yrs
Vulnerability analysis annual loss of land: 6 hectares now, 10 has in 40 years
Current annual risk: $10,000 x 6 = $60,000
Future annual risk (40 years hence): $30,000 x 10 = $300,000
Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF
Adaptive Capacity
Da Nang Typology
Differentiated by type of hazard and type of capacity. Seems too detailed and
not sufficiently intuitive
 (i) Regulations, policies; (ii) Capacity Building (iii) Promotion, education; (iv)
Scientific research; (v) Construction, infrastructure; (vi) Tree planting
Modifications
 Add capacities:
•
•
•
•
Governance
Planning and coordination capacity
Finance
Willingness to act
 Many capacities cross hazard, no need to evaluate by hazard
Strategic Options
For each hazard review Instruments for protection, preparedness,
coping, recovery
 Policies, regulations to modify behavior
 Direct interventions through infrastructure, risk management
 Adaptive capacity (knowledge systems, planning, governance,
management, resources)
Example Drought
Supply Side Instruments
 Reservoir construction, evaporation control, water storage systems
 Water management
Demand Side Instruments
 Price, shadow pricing for resource value
 Regulation of indirect demand: Appliances and Fixtures, landscaping
 Building codes
 Incentives, penalties, fees, surcharges
 Curtailment, rationing
Short-Term Actions
Reasons for Postponement of Immediate Action




Impact of Discounting: Benefits are far in the future, cost is now
Uncertainty declines
Productivity gains from technical change available to postponement
Idle capacity cost offsets economies of scale
Reasons for Immediate Action




Long gestation period
No regrets
Irreversibility, foreclosure of opportunities
Gains from economies of scale exceed idle capacity cost
Focus on building adaptive capacity
 Knowledge systems
•
•
•
Data and indicator development, monitoring and evaluation, data management
Building scientific capacity
Preparation of models, what if questions
 Planning, management and governance systems
 Resources and Finance
THANK YOU