Transcript Vulnerability of water and electricity supply towards

Vulnerability of water and
electricity supply towards natural
hazards
Claudia Bach, UNU-EHS on behalf of GIZ
ekDRM, 11.05.2011
17.07.2015
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KIBEX project
 Critical infrastructures and
civil protection
 Climate change related
extreme weather events
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Concept of vulnerability
 “the characteristics and circumstances of a community,
system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging
effects of a hazard.” (UN/ISDR 2009)
 f (vulnerability) = Exposure x Susceptibility x Coping Capacity
(see e.g. Birkmann 2006)
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Critical infrastructures
 “Critical infrastructures (CI) are organizational and physical
structures and facilities of such vital importance to a nation’s
society and economy that their failure or degradation would
result in sustained supply shortages, significant disruption of
public safety and security, or other dramatic consequences.”
(Federal MOI, 2009)  important topic for Federal MOI
 Technical infrastructure:
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Water supply
Electricity
Waste water management
Transport
IT
 Socioeconomic service
infrastructure
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Health and nutrition
Disaster reduction and
emergency services
Parliament, jurisdiction,
public administration
Finance and insurance
Media and cultural heritage
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Vulnerability of societies toward critical
infrastructure system failures
Vulnerability I
Critical Infrastructure
(physical assessment of components)
Vulnerability II a
Root causes and
interconnectedness with
other infrastructures
Vulnerability II b
Population
(Dependency and Coping
Mechanisms)
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Vulnerability of critical infrastructure (components)
Source: Krings (2010)
 Exemplary components of water supply systems:
 Wells
 Water works
 Pumping station
 Blending stations
Information on processes
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 Assessment for components is especially
relevant for natural hazards…
 … with limited/ clearly assessable geographical
extension
 … that physically destroy components (e.g. by
the intrusion of water)
e.g. flooding, flash floods
 For heat waves/ multi-hazard approaches (+ dry
spells), the physical destruction of infrastructure
components does not play a major role
 Instead, several processes have to be
considered
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Functional chain population– KRITIS for heatwaves/ dry periods
Population
Selected KRITIS-sectors
Traffic
Increase of road acidents
Damage on streets
and rails
Stoppage/ lack of labour
Secondary
effects
Disaster protection
Delays (Transport of people
and goods)
Malfunctions in
trains
Destruction of livelihood
Overburdening of
disaster management
Disruptions in
shipping
Increase of rescue service
operations
Water
Increase of fires
Health
Decrease in
quality and
quantity of
drinking water
Impact on
sanitation
systems
Threat for hazardous
industries
Impact on the human heallth
Heat stress
Increase of forest
fires
Energy
Fatalities and injured
Direct
effects
Destruction/damage of private property
Slow down coal and
nuclear power stations
Destruction/damage of public facilities and
companies
Heat/ dry period
Cut off customers
Shortage of energy supply
Decrease of coal supply
Decreasing water
supply
Increasing water
temperature
Declining
river levels
Blackout
Hydroelectric plants become less
productive
Rückgang der Produltion
Shortage of cooling
durch Wasserkraftwerke
water
Increasing ozone and
fine dust
concentration
Increasing outdoor
temperature
Shortage of
fire water
Vulnerability
Exposition
Susceptibility and coping capacity
Susceptibility and coping capacity
Construction standards and building conditions
Settlement/ Activities
in risk areas
Position of the flat
(attic vs. basement)
Redundancy, buffer capacity
Human behaviour/ self-help capacity
Exposition
Structural flood measurements
Transparency
Insurance
Activities
inside/outside the
building
Fundamental
changes
Position in risk
areas(city climate)
Early warning and its handling
Dependency on environmental conditions
Existing standards
Land use
Restoration effort
Dependency on other KRITIS/ manpower
Dependency on KRITIS
Climate Change
Adaptation ability, leven of protction
Political and
economic system
Technology
Demography
Claudia Bach, UNU-EHS
ekDRM , 11.05.2011
17.07.2015
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Vulnerability factors of critical infrastructures for
heat waves
 Demographic changes, urbanization (long-term changes in
demand and supply)
 Peak demand during heat waves (short-term changes in
demand and supply)
 Overall availability of (drinking) water
 Interrelations of critical infrastructure sectors (e.g. water
and electricity)
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Interrelation of critical infrastructures
 Production of electricity depends on water
 for hydro-electric power plants
 for cooling power plants (e.g. coal and nuclear)
 in rivers for shipping materials such as coal for
energy production
 Electricity shortfalls can be caused by dry spells
 nuclear and coal-fired power stations in
Germany in 2003 had a reduced output by
between – 15 % to – 100 %
(BfG 2006; Lönker 2003)
 Shortfalls can be accompanied by an increase in
demand
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Interrelation of critical infrastructures
 Failures in the electricity supply system can
cause the malfunction of drinking water supply
 e.g. pumping stations and water works depend
on electricity supply
 A shortfall furthermore has influence on critical
(disaster risk management) infrastructures such
as telecommunications etc.
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Vulnerability of the population toward
malfunction of infrastructures
 Exposure towards malfunction
 Suceptibility – e.g.:
 High level of supply leading to a lack of
provisions
 Inability/ lack of knowlegde to deal with a
shortfall
 Socio-demographic factors such as age, illness
etc.
 Lack of generators (e.g. elderly homes, small
hospitals/ emergency facilities, components for
drinking water supply etc.)
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 Coping capacity – e.g.:
 Experience with shortfalls  improved provision
and knowlegde
 Socio-demographic factors
 Availability of external/ independent electricity
supply facilities
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Transferability
 Method is being developed for German/
European infrastructure systems with the
following preconditions
a. Overall availability of water resources
b. A high level of access to the infrastructure services.
c. Infrastructure services meet the demand and have a very low
probability of failure.
d. Major parts of the supplied population are not aware of the
probability of a major failure of infrastructure systems and
cascading effects and are hardly prepared. They are thus
vulnerable to failures in supply.
 Concept has to be adapted for regions with
other preconditions
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Conclusion and next steps
 Development of indicators for the vulnerability
assessment of critical infrastructure systems,
e.g. level of interrelatedness, dependency of
the electricity sector on water etc.
 The possible shortfall of electricity (by
different sorts of hazards) has to be taken into
accoutn for DRM
 Further discussion of the transferability
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Thank you for your attention!
Claudia Bach
Research Associate
United Nations University – Institute for
Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Contact Details:
Hermann - Ehlers – Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
[email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Tel.: +49 228 815 0230
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