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Impacts and responses concerning Global climate change in Hungary a Joint Research Project of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry for Environment and Water The World’s climate has not been constant. We know, it has gone through dramatic past changes, but there is an increasing evidence that human activities are altering our climate at an unprecedented rate. The Carpathian Basin The Greenhouse Effect Incoming Energy Reflected Energy Outgoing Energy Energy Trapped by Greenhouse Gases Global temperature change (1860-1999) relative to 1961-1990 average temperature Average temperature changes in East Europe 2 warm 1,5 1 -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 „Little glacial” cold oC VargaVarga-Haszonits, Haszonits, 2003. www. www.vahava.hu vahava.hu year 2000 - 1900 - 1800 - 1700 - 1600 - 1400 - 1300 - 1200 - 1100 - 1000 - 900 - 800 1500 mean temperature 0 - 1,5 oC interval 0,5 Trends in CO2 concentrations for past 1000 years (parts per million by volume, ppmv) Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/) Changes in the annual precipitation of Hungary 900 mm 800 700 600 500 400 300 y = - 0,8313x + 2223,9 200 100 0 1900 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 trend Varga-Haszonits, 2003, [email protected] 2000 Water budget of the Earth 97.41 % sea water 2.59% is sweet water 99 % of sweet water is ice, snow or underground 1% is available soil atmosphere rivers, lakes The VAHAVA project vahava Change – Impact - Response (Változás - Hatás – Válasz) vahava [email protected], http//www.vahava.hu The main task of the project is to provide a large scale synthesis in the field of • Exploration of complex impacts of reliable scenarios on climate change; • Response suggestions and proposals, as well as emergency programmes which may prevent or minimalize undesirable effects on national and regional levels. Research fields Agriculture and forestry • • • • • • • • • • • • Crop production, plant breeding. Pastures and grassland management. Horticulture. Forestry. Agricultural water management. Seed production and propagation. Production and storage of fodder crops. Problems related to the husbandry of grazing animals. Pond fisheries. Chances and boundaries of flood-plain farming. Wildlife management. Development in yield estimation methods. Nature conservation and climate change • Predictable problems of protected areas. • Predictable problems of „Vulnerable Natural Areas”, areas of NATURA 2000, and areas of the Ecological Network. • Effects of climate change on birds’ migration and wild life habitats. • Harmonization of proceses of agriculture and forestry with the protection of biodiversity. • Stability of natural ecosystems and populations and their response related to climate change. Special scientific problems • Climatic sensitivity of field crops. • Abiotic stress tolerance of crop plants (cold tolerance, frost tolerance, heat tolerance, drought tolerance etc). • Effects of climate change on the spreading of pests and diseases. • Land use problems in relation with water logged areas. • Land use problems related to drought areas. Tasks of water management • Effects of climate change on water storage capacities of soils. • Effect of climate change on surface and subsurface water sources. • Effect of climate change on water quality and water remediation. • Effects of floods and water logging on small water catchment areas in certain climate scenarios. • Predictable problems of communal water supply in relation with climate change. Economic and social consequences • • • • • • • • Adaptation of disaster rescue systems. Effects of climate change on transport and traffic. Predictable impacts on tourism. Effects of climate change on energy consumption. Revision of agricultural subsidy systems. Revision of insurance systems. Foresight in telecommunication. Comprehensive evaluation of institutions affected by climate change, and adaptation proposals. • Review and evaluation of legal systems, and adaptation proposals. • Public health impacts and their consequences. Synthesis In 2005 specialist working groups process research results and reports, and elaborate a synthesis in favour of program proposals in the following fields: Nature conservation. Economic systems in agriculture and forestry. Water management. Communal systems, transport, traffic and energy consumption. Human dimensions (health, education, communication, legal system). Social aspects. The structure of the project The project is iniciated and supervised by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry for Environment and Water. The Steering Committee of the project: István Láng Márton Jolánkai László Csete The project is supported by the Scientific Council. Project participants: Research institutions (institutes, universities) Scientific committees of the Academy Governmental bodies and organizations Commercial companies Non-governmental organizations Individual specialists Expected results • Hopefully new scientific results in certain disciplines. • Comprehensive evaluation concerning the impacts and consequences of climate change. • Elaboration of complex program proposals for prevention or reduction of harm on national and regional level. • Scientific support to future strategic plans and implementations of the Government. Thank you vahava http://www.vahava.hu