Transcript CCC Communications Strategy

www.theccc.org.uk
Building a Low-Carbon Economy –
Tackling Climate Change: the
Business Opportunities
Professor Julia King
Climate Change Committee Member
Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham
Be Birmingham Summit 26th June 2009
In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging
targets for Government…
Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by
2050
Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020...
And by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal
Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the
legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its
recommendations following a global deal
These challenging targets will drive major new
business opportunities across a range of sectors
2050 - the scale of the UK challenge
695 Mt CO2e
International aviation
& shipping*
42
UK non-CO2 GHGs
98
Other CO2
Industry (heat &
industrial processes)
108
Residential &
commercial heat
103
77% cut
(= 80% vs. 1990)
134
Domestic transport
159 Mt CO2e
184
Electricity generation
2006 emissions
* bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Application of
power to transport
and heat
Reducing transport emissions:
• Fuel efficiency
• Electric/plug-in hybrids
• Sustainable biofuels
Reducing heat emissions:
• Energy efficiency
• Behaviour change
• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)
• Biomass boilers
• CCS in industry
POWER SECTOR: required reductions
Emissions intensity to 2050
Power generation to 2050
600
TWh electricity generation per year
600
g/CO2 per kWh
500
500
400
300
400
200
300
100
200
2000
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
2050
90% path
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
HOMES: emissions reduction from energy
use in homes, MtCO2
HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical
potential in 2020
TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon
vehicles in achieving CO2 targets
Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using
electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the
long term
MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport
sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids,
second generation biofuels and hydrogen.
Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car
sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids.
Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.
Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency,
primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no
penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.
Industry view of the high-level technology &
R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport
Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009
EVs: new technologies – new opportunities
New car sales by year
(extreme range scenario)
Number of cars in the
UK car parc
(extreme range scenario)
Arup/CENEX report
for BERR and DfT 2008
Electric vehicles are feasible now
►
The infrastructure is almost in place
►
Some vehicles are already available
► highly efficient
► ranges of 60 to 200+ miles
► some are glamorous!
►
Additional power system load is easily
manageable
► 17% additional generation capacity
► exploit night time trough and day
time dips with smart metering
New business opportunities: POWER
New initiatives in power generation
Renewable Obligation Certificates: 1.5 -15% renewables by
2020
bioenergy
combined heat and power
major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020
CCS, new nuclear build
New business opportunities: HOMES
DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation
Feb 09)
by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered ‘whole house’ packages
if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business
new types of business, new business models
employment and skills
High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground
source heat pumps…
New business opportunities: CARS
Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstrator
announced 23rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the
UK
the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry
EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by
2023: 1.4 million vehicles
Skills for maintenance and repair
New infrastructure
High efficiency electric motors, AC…
The low carbon economy will offer a
lot of opportunities: how can we make
sure we are ready for them?
Thank you
www.theccc.org.uk