Transcript Document
Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in Mitigation Brian S. Fisher CRA International Greenhouse gas stabilisation scenarios Scenario Category Radiative Forcing CO2 Conc. CO2-eq Conc. Global mean temp rise above preindustrial Peaking year for CO2 emissions W/m2 ppm ppm °C Year I 2.5 – 3.0 350 – 400 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 6 II 3.0 – 3.5 400 – 440 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 18 III 3.5 – 4.0 440 – 485 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 21 IV 4.0 – 5.0 485 – 570 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 118 V 5.0 – 6.0 570 – 660 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 – 2080 9 VI 6.0 – 7.5 660 – 790 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 – 2090 5 Total No. of assessed scenarios 177 Source: IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report World transport energy use in 2000, by mode Projected growth in vehicles 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 million 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Vehicle ownership as a function of per capita income Data Source: World Bank 2004 Note: plotted years vary by country depending on data availability Projections for transport GHG emissions in 2020 for some cities of developing countries Source: Sperling & Salon, 2002 Historical & projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970 - 2050 Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b Projection of transport energy consumption by region & mode Source: WBCSD, 2004a The effect of a scenario postulating the market penetration of all technologies Source: WBCSD, 2004a Key conclusions • Global energy consumption will grow rapidly over the coming 50 years – Much of this growth will occur in developing countries • Rapid advances in energy technology and diffusion are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Global greenhouse gas emissions will only peak by 2050 if global income growth slows substantially or with the deployment of unforeseen amounts of non-carbon energy • Technological change and deployment of new energy technologies together with unprecedented global political cooperation are the keys to the solution of the climate change problem • All transport modes have a part to play but road transport will need to be a major focus Definition of scenarios Partnership technology Major technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries in Partnership economies by 2050 thermal efficiency of black coal power stations 65% thermal efficiency of gas fired power stations 74% 80% of motor vehicle fleet non-conventional engines 45% reduction in energy intensity in cement industry 18% reduction in energy intensity in aluminium 30% reduction in energy intensity in pulp and paper 30% reduction in energy intensity in iron and steel Partnership technology + CCS As above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Australia, Japan and United States and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea Source:ABARE Definition of scenarios Global technology Major technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries as set out for Partnership economies fully diffused throughout the world Global technology + CCS As above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Annex B countries and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea Source: ABARE Source: ABARE Source: ABARE Source: ABARE Source: ABARE