Transcript EU climate mitigation action - EU

EU Climate Action
EU – Central Asia Working Group on
Environmental Governance and Climate Change
2nd Meeting
13-14 September 2012, Almaty
DG Climate Action
European Commission
Climate
Action
EU climate mitigation action: Where
do we stand?
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
GHG emissions
Population
Real GDP
110.0
Primary energy
100.0
90.0
Climate
Action
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
80.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
• EU27 emissions
have decreased by
15.5% below 1990
• Decoupling of
economic growth
and GHG emissions
is happening
EU climate policy objectives
• First step: EU15 Kyoto objectives for 2008-12
• Long term objective: avoiding dangerous climate
change, 2°C target; science as orientation
• 2020 EU target: reduce GHG emissions by 20%
below 1990 (30% if the conditions are right)
• Core element of Europe 2020 strategy for smart,
sustainable and inclusive growth
• 2050 EU objective: reducing greenhouse gas
emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to
1990, in the context of necessary reductions by
developed countries as a group
Climate
Action
EU policy making process:
relevant policy objectives
• Environmental effectiveness: reduce emissions
• Economic efficiency: least cost, thus preference for marketbased instruments, including co-benefits, technology neutral
• Financial feasibility: additional investment needs
• Energy security: diversification, reduce import dependence,
esp. renewables
• Competitiveness: market liberalisation, level playing field
(internal and external)
• Employment: impacts on jobs
• Subsidiarity: EU-wide vs. Member State
level/regions/communities
• Solidarity: wide disparity in standard of living across Europe
Climate
Action
What to do to reach our objectives:
from modelling to policy making
• Supporting EU policy making by sound socioeconomic analysis
• Impact Assessments are obligatory (and published)
• Baseline trends: how does the problem evolve
• Assessing impact of different policy options
• Importance of modelling due to future orientation
and broad impact of climate policy objectives
• Ensuring consistency of the analysis
• Quantifying key relationships and impacts
• Choice and use of models depends on purpose
and geographical/ sectoral focus of the analysis
Climate
Action
The Climate and Energy Package
• Combined economic analysis for -20% GHG
target and 20% renewables target
• EU Emissions Trading System reducing overall emissions
from industrial installations by -21% in 2020 below 2005
• Effort Sharing Decision: National GHG emission targets
cover other sectors: e.g. buildings, services, agriculture,
transport (except aviation): -10% in 2020 below 2005
 Respective efforts informed by model-based analysis
• Renewable Energy Directive: national targets to increase
share of renewables in EU’s energy mix to 20% by 2020
6
Climate
Action
Fairness: reassessment of costs of the
Climate and Energy Package with crisis
Reference 2020 GDP
Additional
system costs
Including
redistribution
EU27
0.28%
0.28%
Higher income group
0.27%
0.29%
Lower income group
0.35%
0.23%
Climate
Action
EU Roadmap 2050 on the basis of
science and informed by economics
• Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy as framework for
longer term action
• Need to fix intermediary stages towards the 2050 objective
• Science: globally halving of emissions by 2050 cp to 1990
• Global economic modelling to inform about EU contribution
• EU scenarios how to achieve 80% domestic reduction
• Consistent sectoral roadmaps for energy and transport
• Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis
Climate
Action
EU Roadmap 2050 - a cost-efficient
pathway
80% domestic
reduction in 2050
feasible
• with currently
available
technologies
• If all economic
sectors contribute
100%
80%
100%
Power Sector
80%
Current policy
60%
Residential & Tertiary
60%
Industry
40%
40%
Transport
Efficient pathway:
-25% in 2020
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
1990
2000
2010
Climate
Action
2020
2030
2040
0%
2050
EU Roadmap 2050: Benefits for
energy security, growth and jobs
• Energy savings
GDP and GHG decoupling
• >30% primary energy savings
• Approx. € 400 billion per year
in 2050
• Innovation in key growth
sectors crucial for future
competitiveness
• Potential net job creation up to
1.5 million by 2020
• GDP more secure from energy
price shocks
• Reduced economic risks from
climate impacts
Climate
Action
200
180
1990 = 100%
• Shift from fuel costs to investment
expenditure
220
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990
2000
GDP
2010
2020
GHG emissions
2030
Adaptation as an increasingly
important EU policy strand
• Climate change is already happening, we can
only influence its extent
• 2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation
• 2011 Commission Proposal for next EU budget:
mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation
• 2012 March: Launch of the European Climate
Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT)
• Planned for 2013: EU Adaptation Strategy
Climate
Action
International: Durban outcome
Implementation
• Kyoto Protocol continues
2nd Commitment period, LULUCF rules, scope, improved CDM
• Cancun agreements are operational
Pledges, Transparency, Climate Technology Center Network, Adaptation
Committee, New Market Mechanisms, Green Climate Fund
Negotiation
• Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
• Negotiating a new legally binding agreement by 2015
applicable to all countries;
• Right forum to address national circumstances
• Addressing the ambition gap until 2020
Climate
Action
International: Next steps
Implementation
• Kyoto Protocol
Commitment Period: Define QELROs, carry-over of AAUs,
length of commitment period
• Cancun agreements made operational
Progress on implementing pledges
Sources of funding up to 2020
Negotiation
• Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
Work plan until 2015, efficiency of negotiation process
Identify additional short-term mitigation action
High ambition alliance
Climate
Action
Thank you!
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm
Climate
Action