Transcript Document

Energy-Environment
Modeling
Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group
300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL
February 22, 2007
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
Why model?
• Examine different policy scenarios, including sensitivities
• Examine the cost of policy packages
• Assess interplay between policy options
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
2
What gets modeled?
Power
- dispatch
- electricity prices
- new builds
Energy
Prices
New
Policies
Energy
Demand
Transport
GSP
Employment
- VMT
- mode switching
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Agriculture
Emissions
- reductions
- cost of reductions
- production
- efficiency
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
3
Some modeling already done
Illinois GHG Emission Trends with Energy Plan Reductions 1990-2020
Energy Plan
emissions
reductions
from BAU
Need to model
policies that can
reduce these
emissions
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
4
Examples of models:
• Multi-sector
- Energy 2020
- Markal
- National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
• Power sector only
- IPM
- Haiku (Resources for the Future)
- Regional dispatch models
• Transport sector only
- UC Davis
• Economic Impacts
- REMI
- state-level input-output models
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
5
Key model attributes to consider:
• Analytic capabilities
-
Energy prices, demand, efficiency
Policy design variables
Multi-regional interactions
Inter-sectoral dynamics
Emissions benefits
Economic
• Time horizon and solution intervals
• Operation
-
Licensing
Customization tasks
Lead time to develop
Running the model
Cost
Sensitivity analyses
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
6
Next steps and discussion:
Input from IL CCAG
• Define key policies and their attributes
• Assumptions for reference case
(e.g., fuel prices)
Identify a modeler
• Interview modelers and assess
capabilities, turnaround time, fees
• Contract modeling work
Process and timing
• Bring initial results to May meeting
• Determine need for revisions or testing of
sensitivities
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group
7