Transcript No Slide Title

Putting the Brakes on
Climate Change
15th October 2003
Introduction
• Based on ippr report
• Malcolm Fergusson, IEEP
– Balance of fuel efficiency versus traffic growth
– Trends and future prospects
• Julie Foley, ippr
– Need for continuing efforts
– New policy measures including road pricing
Car dependency and road freight
• New car sales in 2002 - 2.5 million
• Since mid 1980s:
- 24% increase in average number of car trips per person
- 60% increase in distance travelled by car
- 40% increase in goods traffic
• Lorries account for 2% of vehicles
but 13% of motorway traffic
(DfT Transport Statistics, 2003)
Road traffic trend and forecast
600
2000-2010
20-25%
550
All motor traffic (bvkms)
500
1990s
14%
450
1980s
400
51%
350
300
250
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
(DfT Transport Statistics & NTM, 2003)
2000
2005
2010
Road traffic CO2 trend
120
Million tonnes of CO2
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Years
(Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2001)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
The National Transport Model
• New model predicts traffic, emissions
• Improvement on previous forecasts
• Key assumptions
–
–
–
–
20% improvement in car fuel economy
12.5-15% improvement for vans and trucks
Car fuel cost falls by 30% 2000-2010
20-25% traffic growth to 2010
• Predicts CO2 level or falling to 2010
IEEP’s road transport CO2 model
• Used similar model to test results
• Key differences
– Slightly less optimistic on car fuel economy
– Much less optimistic for vans and trucks
• Also projections to 2020
• Compared to emissions from other sectors
Projected UK CO2 emissions
Climate
Change
Programme
DfT
baseline baseline
1990
2000
Industry
49.8
40.1
Domestic
42.6
39.8
Services
23.3
22.8
Road Transport
33.3
34.5
Other Transport
4.3
4.4
Other
14.7
13.0
Total
168
154.6
Road Transport
as % Total
19.2%
22.3%
(Measured in MtC)
% change
2000-2020
2010
32.7
33.6
19.1
37.0
4.8
9.2
136.4
2020
29.1
33.1
21.3
39.6
5.1
8.9
137.1
27.1%
28.9%
-27.4%
-16.8%
-6.6%
+14.8%
+15.9%
-31.5%
-11.3%
Implications for UK Climate Programme
• Transport CO2 could resume growth
• Will grow as a share of total
• Could jeopardise the 20% CO2 target
• Transport CO2 reductions not assured
• Traffic growth is still an issue
Mitigating road transport’s
contribution to climate change
• A reduction (reduced growth) in
CO2 emissions from road transport
should be a new PSA
• Price signals, voluntary measures
and low carbon technologies needed
• Congestion charge research
undertaken by Imperial College
Congestion charge results
Year
Charge
type
Change in
total traffic
(Bn vehicle
km per
year)
2000 Revenue + 14.7
neutral
2010 Revenue + 36.3
neutral
2010 Revenue - 36.6
raising
%
change
in total
traffic
Change in bus
patronage
(Bn passenger
km per year)
%
change
in
carbon
+ 0.7
% change Change in
in bus
CO2
patronage emissions
(Mn tonnes
of carbon
per year)
+ 4.2%
+ 0.7
+ 3.4%
+ 6.7%
+ 1.6
+ 8.6%
+ 1.7
+ 5.0%
- 6.7%
+ 2.1
+ 11.4%
- 2.8
- 8.2%
+ 2.6%
Average money cost for rural
versus urban motorists in 2010
2010
Average money cost (pence per kilometre)
Rural areas
Large urban areas
(pop. 250,000)
9.5 p
11.7 p
Business as usual
(without congestion charging)
Revenue neutral charge
6.9 p
17.8 p
(offsetting fuel duty)
Revenue raising charge
10.4 p
20.4 p
(added on top of fuel duty)
The money cost (including fuel and operating costs) is based on a weighted
average cost across all times of the day
Winning over the motorist
• Little extra money for transport in
the next spending review & beyond
• A national revenue raising charge
introduced in 2010 could raise an
extra £16 bn per year
• Revenue from charging should pay
for better roads & public transport
• Government should abolish Vehicle
Excise Duty (£4.5 bn in 2002/3)
Voluntary agreements for
improving fuel efficiency
• Further target of 120g/km CO2 for the
average new car fleet by early in the
next decade
• EC should adopt a more ambitious
target for 2020 of 100 g/km CO2 or less
• New measures for improving the fuel
efficiency of good vehicles needed
Report available at:
www.ippr.org/sustainability