Transcript Koko Warner: Advancing human security through knowledge

Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
“Advancing human security through knowledge-based
approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental
risks“
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Environmental change, and migration:
Policy options for Europe
Dr. Koko Warner
Section Head Social Vulnerability and Environmental Migration
UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
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Overview
 Part 1: Does environmental change and
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
migration affect Europe?
 Trends
 Migration as adaptation or measure of last
resort?
 Part 2: Global challenges, European
policy alternatives
 Act now: address problems at the source
 Act later: humanitarian crisis
 Outlook
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Does environmentally induced
migration affect Europe?
• 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
– Climate change and environmental degradation
– Migration
– How are they linked?
• How many will migrate?
– Estimates vary from at least 24 million today to 700 million by 2050
• Climate change & migration challenge
– The IPCC says less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts
of environmental change
• „Climate change has serious implications on
international peace and security, including
migration.“
– UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Environmental change
and migration: Hotspots & Trajectories (WGBU 2007)
Main
trajectories
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)
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Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
What does environmental change
& migration mean for Europe?
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
7 November 1998 The Guardian, London
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
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What has changed in 10 years?
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
The danger of „Us“ vs. „Them“
Who stands to lose more?
Source: Material World: A Global Family Portrait (Menzel 1994)
• People worldwide face risk of losing life, livelihoods, home.
• The ability to cope with these risks differs from place to place.
• Some people migrate, some try to stay and „muddle through“.
• What are the options?
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Europe is at the forefront of
environmentally-induced migration.
There is no turning away from the
problem, but there are choices to be
made how to move forward.
Here are two alternatives.
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Act now: Address environmental
change at the source
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
1. Help people
•
•
Stay at home (?)
Find a new place (?)
2. Help improve
environmental conditions
3. Help manage risk
4. Help foster sustainable
development
Source: EACH-FOR project, Marc Stal 2007
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Act later: Humanitarian crisis
Photo courtesy of Thomas Loster, Munich Re Foundation
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
What actions must be taken?
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Europe has the opportunity to lead in policy
and practice:
1. Science
2. Awareness
3. Legislation
4. Humanitarian assistance
5. Institutional
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Conclusions
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Environmental factors currently contribute to
migration, this affects Europe.
• Europe can choose to act now, and stem a tide of
environmental change and migration.
• Alternatively, Europe can choose to act later, and
deal with humanitarian crisis on a large scale.
• We must address migration in the face of climate
change TODAY for human security in Europe and
for Europe´s neighbors tomorrow
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Thank you.
Dr. Koko Warner
[email protected]
Tel: +49 228 815 0226
www.ehs.unu.edu
EFMSV Germanwatch Session
“Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”
Bonn, Germany
Thursday, 9 October, 2008
[email protected]