Transcript Powerpoint

SCIENCE AND THE CITY
Alan Wilson
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
University College London
SYSTEMS OF INTEREST
• systems of cities:
– global
– national
– regional
• city regions, cities, towns, villages
• inner cities, suburbs,…..
A CITY SYSTEM
Population
Employment
Use of services
Economy
Jobs
Products and services
Interactions
(Transport and Communications)
statics/steady state ‘physiology’/dynamics-DNA
QUESTIONS
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role in the national (or regional) economy?
is it competitive with other cities?
does it offer adequate jobs for its population?
good economic development policies?
skill base?
is it prosperous and sustainable?
transport and telecomms?
stable or shifting population? Migration?
housing supply?
health, education, environment?
safety? Care for the elderly?
Questions for research
• take any of these questions, or a group of
them, and ask how to make them specific.
Measures? Beginnings of analysis?
• disaggregate: break them down into more
detailed questions
• ask about the roles of Government agencies:
– central government
– local government
– quangoes
The P-D-A framework
• policy-design-analysis
• e.g. Heathrow third runway
– policy: on capacity
– design: invent the alternatives: Heathrow,
Stansted, Luton, Thames Gateway
– analysis: model existing demand and supply; make
some predictions; set up a framework for costbenefit analysis
Interdependence
• many of the questions are linked
• for example, housing problems, which are
often seen as problems of housing supply, are
actually usually income problems, and income
problems are often education/skill problerms
THE SCIENCE
• what is needed has various names:
– a decision support system
– an analysis system
– a planning system
• but must be underpinned by an effective information
system
• a GIS can be an effective organiser for this – but this
implies taking a wider view of GIS: a table-top GIS with
a hierarchical system of pull-down menus to access all
the information that is needed?
• a CityIS or a GovIS?
The analytical base
• economic development: input-output models
– a city’s balance of payments?
• population: demographic models – migration
particularly difficult
• spatial interaction models
• structural dynamics: urban DNA
• microsimulation, ABM
• analysis; tests of alternatives; all outputs to the
CityIS or the GovIS
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
• no good CityIS or GovIS anywhere?
– so research the structure of one?
• most Government approaches in silos:
– Government Departments
– professions in the Civil Service
• local government?
• typically:
– alternatives not systematically explored
– no effective cost-benefit analysis
WHAT COULD BE DONE?
• examples follow
– first, in terms of one or two central departments
– then in terms of more potentially joined-up issues
Regional and urban growth (BERR,
HMT)
• PSA target to equalise GDP per capita across
regions
• what would be the maximum rate of UK
growth if London and the SE were allowed to
grow unconstrained?
• regional growth targets depend on the big
cities; can the cities achieve their targets
without progressing inner city issues?
• what would a system of targets look like?
Migration (Home Office)
• very poor data on international migration
• differential impacts on each of 160 local
authorities
• could the Government do sample surveys
ahead of a 2010 Census?
• is there a mini research project collating
evidence from individual local authorities?
Education (DCSF, DIUS)
• a rich data base now potentially available
• policy question: how to combine secondary
schools into ‘federations’ to embrace ‘failing’
schools
• analysis to explore the Government’s ‘choice’
agenda?
• what does the Government’s HE widening
access agenda mean for schools, choices of Alevels etc?
Health (DoH)
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the sector is data rich but disorganised
the geography of GP delivery?
the polyclinics controversy?
the hierarchy of tertiary (university hospitals),
secondary (general hospitals) and primary (GP
surgeries
– in terms of accessibility, emergencies vs elective etc.
• performance indicators two ways round: the
delivery unit and the residential area – e.g. dental
services
Housing (CLG)
• home ownership: the housing market, the
planning system etc.
• the private rental market
• the social housing market
• do we understand the balance between these
sectors?
Others…….
• food and environment (DEFRA): food prices,
petrol prices, supermarket deserts,…
• benefits, pensions, care of the elderly (DWP,
DoH): staggering costs to the Government;
some good reports (Turner, Sutherland);
microsimulation?
• criminal justice system (HO, DoJ, DCSF, DIUS):
CJS information after NOMIS?
• transport DoT), energy (DEE), culture (DCMS)
Joining up
• income-employment-education-skills: poor
income generates poor diet, poor health, poor
performance in education, inadequate
housing, need for social welfare support, and,
at the extreme, drugs-related crime: so???
• the planning system: connects transport and
land use with economic strategies and service
provision. Does it?????
• social mobility – see ‘income’ above
MORE SCIENCE
• insert diagrams from URD-I:
– system diagram
– list of interaction variables
– model equations
– input-output diagram
– zone focus, sector focus….
CONCLUDING COMMENT
• who will design, produce and use a good City
IS, or a GovIS????