Transcript Nessun titolo diapositiva

The contents of the Copenhagen Accord
on climate change
Valentino Piana
Rome, 23nd March 2010
Contents
1. The climate debate
2. The Copenhagen Accord: the components and the positive elements
3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs
4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
5. Finance
6. Next steps
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
1. The climate debate
Sustainability
Climate
change
Development
Food
security
World
financial
architecture
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
2. The Copenhagen Accord: the components
The Accord is constituted by:
1. The list of countries that associate themselves with it
2. Twelve articles about
Below +2o Degrees
* A shared vision of the future
Mostly
developed
countries
Mostly
(e.g.
developing
EU,
countries
USA,
Japan,
…)
107 until now, of which
28 African countries
* Adaptation
* Annex I countries commitments about reduction of greenhouse gases emissions
* Non-Annex I countries Nationally appropriate mitigation actions
* Deforestation and forest degradation actions
* Incentives to low emitting economies
* New and additional, predictable and adequated funding with improved access
* A High Level Panel to study the sources of funds
* The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
* A country-driven Technology Mechanism
* The next steps, including the assessment of the implementation of the Accord
3. An appendix containing the commitments of Annex I countries
4. An appendix containing the mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries
5. A Registry of the mitigation actions seeking international support
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
2. The Copenhagen Accord: the positive elements
The Accord will test the effectiveness of an approach focused on immediate actions and
verification of commitments, through alternative moves from all countries (bottom-up
approach). It can fail and under-deliver but it is worth trying. In particular, CA is characterized by
the following elements:
1. All major GHG emitting countries involved, generating specific pledges from 73 countries that together
account for more than 80 per cent of global emissions from energy use
2. “Operational immediately”
3. 30 billion dollars committed by developed countries for the first three years
(of which 2.4 billion euros committed by EU countries yearly 2010-2012)
4. A steep rising pathway of funding up to 100 US billions in 2020, where the sources will be studied
by a High Level Panel (co-chairs and members already chosen)
5. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions by non-Annex I countries both unilateral and conditional
on obtaining international support in terms of technology, funding and capacity-building (art. 5)
6. Technology Mechanism selected, linked to NAMAs (art. 11)
7. Annex I Kyoto Protocol parties “further strengthen” their commitments (art. 4)
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs
Art. 3 of the Copenhagen Accord:
“Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the potential
impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries.
Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently
required to ensure the implementation of the [UNFCCC] Convention by
enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions
aimed at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing
countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, especially
least developed countries, small island developing States and Africa.
We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and
sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to
support the implementation of adaptation action in developing
countries.”
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs
Well in advance to Copenhagen conference, most Least Developed
Countries prepared programs for adaptation, the so-called National
Adaptation Programmes of Actions.
Their cumulative cost is about 1 .7 billion US dollars.
32 African countries have so far presented NAPAs, for a total of about
1.350 billion US dollars (about the 80% of the total).
The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) required long procedures to access
the funds as well as large co-financing.
Until recently, GEF has disboursed only about 60 millions dollars.
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview
NAMAs are schematic texts submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat by national
focal points, to be collected in Appendix II of CA and in a special
Registry (if looking for support).
The 32 countries that have presented official NAMAs before 7th March
2010 have interpreted “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions” in a
wide range of ways:
* carbon-neutrality declaration;
* economy-wide commitments of reducing emissions in percentage
with respect to a baseline of Business-as-Usual trajectory;
* absolute reductions of CO2-eq emissions;
* sectoral preferential directions of development;
* specific goals and actions;
* localized projects with specified technical parametres.
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview
The geographical distribution of NAMAs
14
12
10
Africa
Asia
Latin America
Europe
Oceania
8
6
4
2
0
N. countries
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview
The sectoral distribution of NAMAs
25
Forestry
20
Transport
15
Renewable
energies
Agriculture
10
Waste
5
Building
0
N. countries
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
4. NAMAs in national planning
UNFCCC, MEF/G8/G20
Low-emission development strategy (art.2 CA)
Climate Action Plans
(BAP six pillars: Shared Vision, Mitigation, Adaptation,
Technology, Finance, Capacity building), e.g. National Adaptation Strategy
NAMAs
NAPAs
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
Local
Adaptation
Plans
….
4. The process of devising NAMAs and obtaining international support
In the country
International interface
Abroad
Analysis of existing and
forthcoming laws
and policies
Existing funds
Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
Mitigation potential
and international
best practices
Economic mechanisms
of activation
Submission of NAMAs
to UNFCCC
Inter-governmental organizations
Private investors
Detail design
of measures
Technology / Solution providers
Research centres
National stakeholders
Matching mechanism,
dynamics and events
Local stakeholders
Localisation and
implementation
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
NGOs
4. An evaluation of the existing NAMAs
Positive features
Wide variety
Usually reflecting the national
circumstances, existing laws and
policies
Fairly aware of international best
practices
Many sectors mentioned (e.g. energy,
transport, building, agriculture,
forestry, tourism,…)
Concise documents
Better than CDM as for broader
transformational potential
Negative features
Not clear the kind and features of the
international support looked for
No economic mechanism of activation
Not mobilizing the private investors
No legal guarantees for investors
No appeal to research centres and NGOs
Unexplored connection with the
Technology Mechanism
Often lacking CO2 reduction
quantification
Always lacking estimated costs, thus
also the cost per avoided ton of CO2eq
Transformational effects (e.g. green
jobs, competitiveness, tax revenue,...)
not expressed
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
5. Finance
How much
is raised
10 billions a year in 20102012
up to 100 billions in 2020
Who pays and
by which source
What to fund
High level panel
will make a proposal
How and who manage
the funds
Existing institutions +
Copenhagen Green
Climate Fund
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
Balanced allocation
between adaptation and
mitigation
(for the first 30 billions)
6. Next steps
High Level
panel on
finance first
meeting
29th March
UNECA
joint
session
with
finance
ministries
in Malawi
UNFCCC
session on
9th-11th
April
(Bonn)
UNFCCC
session in
May-June
(Bonn)
G8/G20 in
Toronto - launch
of the
Copenhagen
Green Climate
Fund?
UNFCCC
session in
Sept/Oct ?
Further NAMAs and NAPAs submissions,
updated communications, matching events
Raising the international support of
inter-governmental organizations, multilateral
and bilateral donors, research centres, NGOs, etc.
www.economicswebinstitute.org
Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting
G8/G20 in
Korea
(November)
COP16
in Cancún
(Mexico)