Transcript Slide 1

What is Climate Change?
• A combined long term effect of rising global
temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic
circulations and consequently rainfall patterns over
time and space
• Global mean temperature rise is due to
concentration of CO2, methane, N2O and other
gases, often called green house gases, caused
mainly by fossil fuel use, deforestation and to an
extent due to wet paddy cultivation
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Global Worming and Climate Change
Ainun Nishat, Ph. D
Senior Advisor, Climate change
IUCN The International Union for Conservation of Nature
Email: [email protected]
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Is Climate Change real …..?
•
Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. G-8 has
agreed to reduce green house emission by 50% by 2050. Is it enough?
•
IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably changed on
both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era. The IPCCFAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally the result of human
activities.
•
CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about
380 ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global average
temperature is already up by 0.8C.
•
Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and
most’.
•
Scientific consensus is clear; now we need to urgently focus on what to do
about it. Attempts are being made to fix the ceiling at 500ppm and at 2.0c.
Is it likely to happen?
•
Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not
likely to be achieved soon.
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I. Major Climate Change concerns
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Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature
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Role of Human Systems on Global Warming
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Blue Band - natural; Red band – Man made
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Global
Warming
Sea Level
Rise
Snow
Cover
SPM (IPCC, 2007)
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Year
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
-0.4
0.2
1963
-0.2
0.4
1961
-0.1
1959
0.0
1957
0.1
1955
0.2
1953
Global
Deviation (°C)
0.6
1951
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
0.3
1967
0.4
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
Deviation (°C)
Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature
0.8
0.5
0.6
Northern
Hemisphere
0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
Year
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Temperature Trend in Maijdee Court
Trend of Annual Average Temperature
Maijdee Court
27.50
27.00
AnnualTavg
Linear (AnnualTavg)
26.50
Annual Average Temperature
The regression equation
shows that annual
average temperature
has an increasing
tendency and has
increased by 0.86ºC
from 1952 to 2001
26.00
25.50
25.00
Source: Study report on
Extreme Hydrological events
y = 0.0176x - 9.2354
R2 = 0.2771
24.50
24.00
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Years
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Projected impacts of climate change
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
0°C
Food
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in
developed regions
some high latitude regions
Significant fall in water
Small mountain glaciers
availability e.g. Mediterranean
disappear – melt-water
and Southern Africa
supplies threatened in
several areas
Water
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Weather
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
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Flood
Flood
Inundation
Inundation
Depth
Depth
Map:
Map:
Projection
Projection
Year
2030
Year
Flood
Inundation
Depth
Map:
Projection
Year
2050
Flood
Inundation
Depth
Map:
Projection
Year
21002015
Flood Inundation
Depth
Map
Existing
Sea
Level
Sea
Level
Rise
Rise
cm
10 cmCondition
Sea
Level
Rise
3214
cm
Sea
Level
Rise
88
cm
No Sea Level
Upstream
flow:
Upstream
flow:
Upstream
flow:
Rise
Average
Year
Average
Year
Average
Year
Upstream
flow:
(Year
2000
flow)
(Year
2000
flow)
(Year
2000
flow)
Average
Year
(Year 2000 flow)
Land
Level
PWD)
Land
Level
(m(m
PWD)
(m)PWD)
PWD)
Land Level (m
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
7.00-19.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
4.007.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
2.004.00
0.002.00
0.002.00
0.002.00
0.00- 2.00
Inundation Depth
(m)
Inundation
InundationDepth
Depth(m)
(m)
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0.000.15
0.000.15
0.000.15
0.00- 0.15
0.150.30
0.150.30
0.150.30
0.15- 0.30
0.300.30- 0.60
0.60
0.300.30-0.60
0.60
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.600.90
0.901.80
0.901.80
0.901.80
0.90- 1.80
1.803.60
1.803.60
1.803.60
1.803.60
Above
3.60
th
Above
3.60
Above
3.60
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2009
Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Temperat
ure
Sea Level Rise
Drought
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
Erosion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
River
Flood
Flash
Flood
+++
+++
++
+++
-
Crop Agriculture
+
++
++
+
+
-
Fisheries
++
+++
+
+
+
+++
-
Livestock
+
++
-
-
++
+
+
+++
++
+++
++
-
++
+
++
-
Industries
+++
+++
+++
+
++
+
+
-
Biodiversity
+++
+
+++
++
++
-
++
-
Health
-
-
-
-
+
+
+++
+++
+
-
+
-
Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
+++
++
+++
++
+
++
International Union for Conservation of Nature
++
+
-
+
Infrastructure
Human Settlement
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Energy
Comments of Rural Communities (IUCN 2003)
Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and irregular heavy rain,
Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of cyclonic
conditions, variation in tidal flow
Increase in frequency of flash flood,
Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle, cloudy and
cold winter,
increase in droughts and dry spells,
Storms and hailstorms,,
Increased surface temperature,
Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.
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Options for Adaptation
FLOOD MANAGEMENT
• Flood management
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–
–
–
–
–
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Dams and reservoirs
flood management infrastructure
dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund
sluices,
pump stations,
flood Evacuation shelters
• Evacuation
• Shelter management
Flood forecasting system
– Lead time,
– Language
– Dissemination
Drought Management
•
•
Barrages
Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells.
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Options for Adaptation………
Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane
•
•
•
Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee
Coastal aforestation
Cyclone Shelters
•
Cyclone forecasts and Warning
– Lead time,
– Language
– Dissemination
– Evacuation
– Shelter management
Erosion control measures
•
River training
•
•
Capacity of local level institutions
GO-NGO relationship
Capacity enhancement for Disaster Management
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Where are our concerns
North:
Compromise with life style
Snow melting & dry ski-slopes
Floods
Impact on ecosystem
Hurricanes and typhoons
Sea level rise
Health issues
Malaria
Heat waves
Capacity to cope with disasters
Reduction of green house gas
emission level
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South:
Food and livelihood security
Urban drainage problems
Floods and cyclone :
forecasting and warning
dissemination
Improvements in IWRM
including resolution of transboundary waters.
Salinity increase & sea level
rise
River and coastal erosion
Disaster management
Understanding impact on
ecosystem
Question of future survival
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II. Progress up to Bali
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Global Responses
• The international political response to climate change began with
adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change(UNFCCC) in 1992.
• Calls for all signatories including developing countries:
– to develop their inventories of GHG emission;
– formulate and implement national and regional programs related to
mitigation and adaptation;
– Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion,
including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction;
– Promote sinks of Green House Gases;
– Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change;
– Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and
in education training and awareness raising.
• These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications.
Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing
countries have submitted 1st Communication and preparing 2nd
Communication.
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Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC
• Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climatic system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient:
– To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
change.
– To ensure that food production is not threatened,
and
– To enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.
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Global Response
(cont...)
• Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP)
with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of
limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions.
– Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission,
individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first
commitment period of 2008 to 2012.
– Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their
commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No.
– Negotiation for post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali
Action Plan.
– Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24th September 2007; Ministers
and senior officials met on 11-12th February 2008.
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III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)
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Bali action Plan
13th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the
full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through longterm action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed
outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15.
The process will produce:
A shared vision for long-term cooperative action,
Set long term global goal for emission reductions,
To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and
Uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities, and
Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors.
The process will address:
Enhanced national/international action on Mitigation
Enhanced action on Adaptation,
Enhanced action on Technology development and transfer to support action
on Mitigation and Adaptation,
Enhanced action on provision of Financial Resources and investment to
support action on Mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.
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Enhanced action on Mitigation
• By all developed countries
– Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives
– Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or
actions: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable.
• By all developing countries
– Nationally appropriate mitigation actions,
– Supported and enabled by technology, finance and
capacity-building, in the context of sustainable
development : Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable.
– Positive incentives on REDD
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Enhanced action on Adaptation
• International cooperation to support urgent implementation of
Adaptation actions through:
– Assessment of Vulnerability
– Prioritization of actions
– Financial needs assessment
– Development of risk reduction and disaster management
strategies
– Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national
planning
• Support programme for capacity building in formulating programmes
and projects to address the adaptation needs.
• Financial mechanism to support the implementation of activities.
• Development of new and innovative support mechanisms such as
insurance etc.
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Enhanced action on Technology transfer
• Technology development and transfer to support
action on Mitigation and Adaptation by:
– Scaling up of the development and transfer of
technology to developing countries through effective
mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of
obstacles to, and provision of financial and other
incentives.
– Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of
affordable environmentally sound technologies,
– Cooperation in research and development of current,
new and innovative technology.
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Enhanced action on Finance
• Positive incentives for emission reduction
activities of developing country’s.
• Financing for implementation of adaptation
actions.
• Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding
and investment, including facilitation of carbonfriendly investment choices
• Improved access to adequate, predictable and
sustainable financial resources including
concessional funding.
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IV. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
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Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
•
Road Map for long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012 as international
response to Climate Change has been agreed upon.
•
Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1 or developed countries.
•
Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to push for GHG reduction.
China, India, Indonesia etc. are also major polluters.
•
Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term Cooperative Action has been set
up. AWG will complete its work in 2009 and present their outcome in COP 15
in Copenhagen.
•
First session of the AWG was held in Bangkok in March 2008. 3 more
sessions in 2008. ( June, September and December). At least 4 sessions in
2009.
•
Bangladesh submitted Bangladesh’s position on the Bali Action Plan in
February 2008.
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V. What we are doing
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Some negotiation issues at global level
•
A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that
global mean temperature will not increase beyond 2 ºc. ( some countries are
trying to make a realistic estimate of 3 ºc.
•
A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need
to reduce their emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization
at 450-550 ppm. Peaking date is very important.
•
Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation.
•
Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs and it’s disbursement
mechanism.
•
Binding adaptation funds
•
Technology transfer at an affordable price
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Bangladesh’s Climate Change Strategy
Basic premises
– Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while
Adaptation Plan has to be based on national context
– Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks:
adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and
adequate financial flows
– Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must
be inviolate for any climate change strategy and
action .
– Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex
1 countries
• polluter pays principle;
• financial flows to be compensatory grants;
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Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
•
•
Released on 10th September in London 2008; revised and updated in July
2009; waiting for approval
6 Thematic Areas
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–
–
–
–
–
•
Food Security, Social Protection and Health (9)
Comprehensive Disaster management (4)
Infrastructure (7)
Research and Knowledge Management (5)
Mitigation and Low Carbon Development (7)
Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening (5)
37 programmes ; 4 new programme added
– BCCSAP is a living document; updating will be necessary at intervals based on
better understanding of issues as they emerge;
– Key issues in taking BCCSAP forward are: financing, institutional arrangement and
coordination, coordination with donors, etc;
– Food Security; water security; livelihood security; energy security and health
security be ensured
– Progress towards sustainable development and achievements in attaining MDGs
are not hampered.
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Bangladesh’s Climate Change Strategy
Basic premises
– Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while Adaptation
Plan (NAPA) as well as Mitigation Plan (NAMA) have to be based
in national context
– Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building blocks: adaptation,
mitigation, technology transfer and adequate financial flows
– Security of food, water, energy and livelihood must be inviolate
for any climate change strategy and action .
– Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly by Annex-1
countries
• polluter pays principle;
• financial flows to be compensatory grants; ( Role of the World Bank and
GEF is being debated).
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Theme 1: Food Security, Social Protection and Health
• P1. Institutional capacity for research towards climate
resilient cultivars and their dissemination
• P2. Development of climate resilient cropping systems
• P3. Adaptation against drought
• P4. Adaptation in fisheries sector
• P5. Adaptation in livestock sector
• P6. Adaptation in health sector
• P7. Water and sanitation programme in climate
vulnerable areas
• P8. Livelihood protection in ecologically fragile areas
• P9. Livelihood protection of vulnerable socio-economic
groups (including women)
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On Road to Copenhagen …….….
• Intense negotiations going on; drafts on website.
• Must understand group dynamics.
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
G77 and China
EU
USA
Umbrella Group
Environmental Integrity Group
AOSIS
LDC
Arab league
Africa Group
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USA’s position……...
•
Declared their position a few weeks back.
•
Recognizes “the magnitude and seriousness of what science demands”.
•
Commits “to reach a strong international agreement in Copenhagen based
on robust targets and ambitious actions that will be embodied in US
domestic law and on the premise that the agreement will reflect the
important national actions of all countries with significant emissions…”
(countries with greater responsibility/capability) ( LDCs left out)
•
Proposes to identify desirable global indicators.
•
Parties to implement nationally appropriate Mitigation Action Plans as shown
in Appendix -1 (in place of Annex-1). Proposes up to 2020 as next
commitment period.
•
Supports REDD related activities.
•
Proposes to develop “robust Adaptation framework”.
•
Recognizes the need for a dramatic increase in flow of resources… for both
adaptation and Mitigation.
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THANK YOU
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