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The future of the oilsands: creating the link between pipelines and upstream environmental management CPANS 2012 Spring Conference Nathan Lemphers Senior Policy Analyst 24 April 2012 Outline Introduction to Pembina (de) Evolution of an Issue KXL Decision Dilemma Alternative Futures The Pembina Institute The Pembina Institute is an environmental nonprofit think tank with 55 staff in seven offices across Canada. We work to advance sustainable energy solutions through innovative research, education, consulting and advocacy. Pembina’s Oilsands Experience ENGO with most experience on oil sands issues (19+ yrs) Past and present multi-stakeholder group involvement (WBEA, CEMA, CASA, OSEC) Bilateral negotiations with companies Participation in public hearings for major oilsands projects Corporate consulting with oil sands companies Research (60,000 downloads in 2011) Pembina’s Perspective Responsible Oil Sands Development: Current environmental impacts need to be addressed Establish science-based, environmental limits Future development occurs within science-based limits Revenue from oil sands development used to transition to a clean energy economy Forecasted Production Primary Concern: Pace and scale in the absence of environmental limits 9000000 8000000 Oilsands Expansion Plans 7000000 6000000 5000000 Barrels per day 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 NEB – 2035 Projection 8,109,820 Royal Society of Canada Report – Key Findings “The regulatory capacity of the Alberta and Canadian Governments does not appear to have kept pace with rapid expansion.” Inadequate government oversight A focus on public relations Lack of information to inform decision-making Little progress on cumulative effects management (de) Evolution of an Issue Climate change > Oilsands > Pipelines (de) Evolutionary outcomes Oilsands and Pipelines are poor proxies for climate change Pipelines are poor proxy for oilsands Total OIlsands Industry Intensity Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity (kg CO2e/barrel) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 11 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (de) Evolutionary outcomes Increasing public attention BP Oil Spill – April 2010 Source: US Chemical Safety Board (de) Evolutionary outcomes Increasing public attention BP Oil Spill – April 2010 Enbridge Pipeline Spill – July 2010 Source: State of Michigan (de) Evolutionary outcomes Increasing public attention BP Oil Spill – April 2010 Enbridge Pipeline Spill – July 2010 Plains Midstream Canada Rainbow Lake Pipeline Spill – April 2011 Linking pipelines with upstream impacts Pembina Institute environmental impacts of oilsands Oil companies/GOA economic benefits of oilsands Keystone XL Decision Denial of Presidential Permit on Jan 18, 2012 by President Obama Lessons for Industry/GOA From Ewart at Calgary Herald (20 Jan 2012) “Shareholder interest ≠ National interest” “Don’t overplay energy security or jobs” “A new world order” (public involvement) “If you don’t regulate, others will” Dilemma Status quo: deny, deflect, defend Constriction of traditional policymaking venues OR Instigate national conversations Contextualize oilsands development Alternative futures Decreasing or delayed market access LCFS, FQD, KXL, Northern Gateway OR Improved long-term competitiveness Improved environmental performance Improved relations w/ FNs and ENGOs Conclusion Growing links between pipelines and upstream development Dilemma: status quo, limit venues, limit market access create venues appropriate to the issues, improve environmental management For more information www.oilsandswatch.org www.pembina.org/subscription Pembina eNews Media releases Publication alerts Twitter Facebook