Transcript No Slide Title

FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR
GLOBAL AIR QUALITY
MANAGEMENT
Dr Martin Williams
Defra, UK
NERAM Colloquium V
Strategic Policy Directions for Air Quality
Risk Management, Vancouver, 16-18
October 2006
Future Directions for Global Air Quality
Management
Outline
• Urban AQM-how do we best use
standards? world-wide?; are there better
ways?
• Regional/transboundary/hemispheric air
pollution problems– New issues and
outreach
• Integration of policy areas –air pollution
and climate change
Urban AQM and the role of
standards
• WHO Global update of Air Quality
Guidelines
• A significant development with
opportunities and challenges for
developing and developed countries
WHO Interim Targets and AQ
Guidelines for PM
Annual
Mean Level
WHO IT-1
PM10
PM2.5
70
35
WHO-IT-2
50
25
WHO IT-3
30
15
WHO AQG
20
10
• The fact that the guidelines exist will be beneficial
to developing countries and should promote
action
• The series of interim targets for PM in particular
should be helpful
• But will there be counter-arguments from industry
to challenge what they might argue are arbitrary
numbers ?
• If so, how will the risk management process
proceed without definitive exposure-response
coefficients which would enable CBA and other
evaluations?
• For developed countries, the same
arguments apply, but also:
• The AQGs themselves will be very difficult
to achieve – experience has shown this
already in Europe for PM10 and NO2 and is
likely to be the case for the AQG for PM2.5
• The CAFÉ process in Europe has to date
not used a priori standards to manage PM
but has used the chain
Scenario->emissions->exposures->health
effects->monetised costs and benefits>air quality target/control measures
• As levels approach the AQG – certainly for PM,
probably for the other pollutants – successive
reductions will be difficult to justify. How will these
difficulties be overcome?
• Persuasive evidence - role for authoritative
evaluations and interpretations of the literature
for policy purposes
• Do standards still have a role? Or does the
exposure reduction approach have advantages ?
• It requires a reduction in the mean over all
measurement sites in the area
Hemispheric transport
Our current understanding
• Well documented evidence mostly in very clean environments
as the Arctic and remote places and for air pollution episodes.
• Concerns tropospheric ozone, fine particulate matter, persistent
organic pollutants, mercury …
• The size of intercontintental transport and its influence is poorly
quantified. For some pollutants (Hg) in the range of 10 to 75
percent and thus significant.
• Also for ozone the hemispheric burden is significant. For PM the
intercontinental transport less certain possibly up to 2 ug/m3
• The effectiveness of intercontinental transport depends on local
and regional conditions. Often associated with meteorology
such as deep convention and frontal systems (WCB).
North American pollution plume observed during CONTRACE
Stohl et al., JGR, 108, 4370, 2003
Huntrieser et al., JGR, 110, DO1305, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005045
Ozone from MOZAIC ascent
100
Horton Station (920 m)
Ozone [ppbv]
80
60
40
20
0
5
SeaWifs image on 15 November
10
15
20
November 2001
25
30
Ozone at Horton station
Introduction to TF HTAP
CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE
TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
50 Parties in Europe, North America and Central Asia
•The Task Force is charged to “plan and conduct
the technical work necessary to:
• develop a fuller understanding of the
hemispheric transport of air pollution ...
• estimate the hemispheric transport of
specific air pollutants for the use in reviews
of protocols to the Convention
• prepare technical reviews thereon for
submission to the Steering Body of EMEP”
Introduction to TF Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
1.
How does hemispheric transport affect air pollution?
2.
How much do emissions in one country or region affect air
pollution in another country or region?
3.
How confident are we of the results and what is our best
estimate of the uncertainties?
4.
How will changes in emissions in one country or region affect
air pollution in another country or region?
5.
How may the source-receptor relationships change over the
next 20 to 50 years due to changes in emissions?
6.
How may the source-receptor relationships change due to
climate change?
7.
What efforts are needed to develop an integrated system of
observation data and models?
Expectations for Assessment Products
TF HTAP Assessment Products
2009 Assessment Report
• State of knowledge concerning intercontinental
transport of air pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere
• Covering all pollutants of interest under the LRTAP
Convention
• Addressing identified policy-relevant science questions
2007 Interim Report
• Significance of intercontinental transport of air
pollutants within the Northern Hemisphere for attaining
the objectives of the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol
Links between climate, air pollution and
energy policies
• There are physical and economic interactions between the
control of air pollution emissions and GHG mitigation
• If these problems are considered separately:
• From the an air pollution perspective:
• Baseline AP emissions, impacts and control costs
(for fixed AP legislation) depend on the level of
GHG mitigation
• Costs of strengthened AQ policies depend on the
level of GHG mitigation
• Further AP control strategies have co-benefits on
GHG mitigation costs.
• From a climate perspective:
• GHG mitigation costs depend on the level of AP
control
• GHG mitigation costs have co-benefits on AQ
impacts
Links between climate, air pollution and
energy policies
Air pollutant emissions relative to a 0€ case
120%
National NEC
projections
110%
0€
100%
90%
20 €
80%
CAFE BL
70%
90 €
60%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
SO2
NOx
PM25
Cost savings from an integrated approach - Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
Cost savings from an integrated approach
Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
25
Integrated approach:
Joint optimization of GHG and
air pollution control
20
Billion €/yr
15
Baseline
10
5
0
Ambition level of
Thematic Strategy
-5
-10
95
100
105
110
115
No constraint
Health target (million life years lost)
BenchmarkBenchmark
-5% GHGs
-5% GHGs
-10% GHGs
-10% GHGs
-15% -20%
GHGsGHGs -20% GHGs
Links between climate, air pollution
and energy policies
• There are short term trade-offs:Diesels
(Black Carbon vs CO2), CHP and MicroCHP, SO2 & FGD
• There are longer term win-wins: Low
carbon intensity energy generation; low
carbon intensity transport, energy
efficiency
Links between climate, air pollution and
energy policies
• An integrated approach could reduce total costs for GHG
mitigation and air pollution control.
• Cost savings can be immediate, they are “real money”
and
they occur to the actors who have to invest into mitigation.
• GAINS –Global IAM model built at IIASA - offers a tool for
such an integrated analysis to identify concrete measures
that are beneficial.
Summary - Future directions for Global Air
Quality Management
• Air Quality standards for protection of human health?
• Global air quality standards with stepwise
improvements WHO 2005-opportunities but also
threats
• Exposure reductions ensure benefits for the
population-if they can be built into legislation
• How to make progress when we are reaching a point of
diminishing returns? Standards alone may not be
enough
• Air pollution not only a local issue - transboundary
character of air pollution –ozone, PM … require regional
and global measures
• Integration of policy areas –air pollution and climate
change –cost effective joint policies – need to manage the
short term trade offs and gain the longer term synergies
• Thank you
• Merci bien
• Diolch yn fawr