Transcript Revalidation of Characteristics of the Moisture Flux

Agro-meteorological inputs for Agriculture
from
National Agromet Center (NAMC)
Dr. Khalid Mahmood Malik
Pakistan Meteorological Department
[email protected]
Outlines…
 Brief about National Agromet Center (NAMC)
 NAMC products
 Impact of climate change over Pakistan
 Conclusions
 Recomendations
National Agro met Center(NAMC)
Agro meteorology: is the study and use of weather and climate
information to enhance or expand agricultural crops and/or to increase crop
production.
Aim : The National Agro-Met Center (NAMC) aims to address the needs
of the farming community and its other related stakeholders, through
provision of weather advisory information and services through the various
delivery channels available in their vicinity for assisting them in making
rational decision.
Purpose : The purpose of establishment of National Agro-Met
Center is to support and provide meteorological, climatological
information/ advisories to agricultural production and food security
related departments /agencies to boost agriculture production in the
country.
Agro -Met Network in Pakistan
The functions of NAMC include
Management of the agrometeorological station network
 Meteorological data collection,
processing and its publication
Issuance of regular weather bulletins
and advisories
Seasonal Crop reports and technical
crop reports
Agro related research
NAMC PRODUCTS
 Weekly weather and crop Bulletin
 Decadal Agromet Bulletin
 Monthly Agro-met Bulletin
 Seasonal Crop reports
 Technical crop reports
 Meteorological Seasonal weather outlook (for three
months)
 Hydrological Seasonal weather outlook for Indus River
Basin (for three months issues in monsoon seasons)
Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-1
Rainfall Distribution (mm)
Past week weather analysis on provinces
basis (spatial distribution)
1.
Rainfall
2.
Relative Humidity
3.
Mean Maximum temperature
4.
Total growing degree days
5.
Mean cloudiness
6.
Wind speed (morning)
7.
Wind speed (evening)
Mean Minimum Temperature (°C)
Mean Relative Humidity
Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-2
Weekly Weather Advisory for Farmers
(From 6th to 12th January, 2014)
Continental air would prevail over most parts of the country during the week.
Punjab including Islamabad
Cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week. Shallow fog/misty conditions are
expected to prevail over the plains of Northeast Punjab (Gujranwala and Lahore division) during the weekend.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week.
Balochistan
Cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week.
Sindh
Dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the week.
Gilgit-Baltistan
Very cold and dry weather with partly cloudy conditions at times is expected in most parts of Gilgit-Baltistan
during the week.
Kashmir
Very cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of Kashmir during the week.
Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-3
Advises for Crops
Cotton: Farmers are advised to manage irrigation practices as per weather
prediction during the week.
Wheat: Farmers of cotton crop areas are advised to prepare their fields for
incoming Rabi crops and complete sowing process before 15th December.
After this time the yield of wheat crop decreases gradually. Farmers of wheat
growing areas are advised to sow their crops in time to get the optimum
yield.
Vegetables: Farmers are advised to cultivate winter vegetables in time so
that present soil moisture may fully be utilized.
General Information: Farmers of rain-fed areas, obtaining crop water
through tube wells are advised to schedule the irrigation according to the
expected weather mentioned above during the week. It is advised to ensure
field sanitation and spray prophylactic fungicidal sprays to prevent spread of
diseases on vegetables.
Decadal Agromet Bulletin of Pakistan
Part-1
Past weather analysis on provinces basis
(spatial distribution)
1.
Rainfall
2.
Relative Humidity
3.
Mean Maximum temperature
4.
Total growing degree days
5.
Mean cloudiness
6.
Wind speed (morning)
7.
Wind speed (evening)
Observed
Departure from normal
RAMC RAWALPINDI
5
4
3
2
1
0
21-31 Dec, 2013
1-31 Dec, 2013
Rainfall (mm)
Departure from previous decade
Decadal Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-2 Ten Days Weather Advisory for Farmers
(1st to 10th January, 2014)
Temperature Forecast
Night temperatures are expected to drop slightly (1-2°C) in most of the agricultural plains of the
country especially in upper parts of the country during the decade.
Rain Forecast
Punjab: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province especially in upper
parts during the decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the hills) is expected at
Murree during the end of decade.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province
especially in upper parts during the decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the
hills) is expected at isolated places in upper parts of the province during the end of decade.
Sindh: Mainly cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade.
Balochistan: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province during the
decade. However light rainfall (with light snowfall over the hills) is expected at Quetta region
during the end of decade.
Gilgit-Baltistan: Mainly dry/partly cloudy & very cold weather is expected in most parts of the
province during the decade. However; rain/thunderstorm with light snow over the hills may occur
at isolated places during the last few days of decade.
Kashmir: Mainly dry & cold weather is expected in most parts of the province during the decade.
However; rain/thunderstorm with light snow over the hills may occur at isolated places during
the last few days of decade.
Wind Forecast
Normal wind pattern may prevail in most of the agricultural plains of the country during the
decade.
Weekly Weather and Agromet Bulletin
Part-3
Advisory for Farmers
Wheat crop is growing at early stages in most parts of the the country.
Farmers of barani areas, obtaining crop water through tube wells are
advised to schedule the irrigation according to the expected weather
mentioned above during the decade.
 Wheat cultivation has completed in most of the irrigated areas. Farmers of
irrigated areas should irrigate the crop as per requirement due to dry
weather prevailing in most of the irrigated agricultural plains of the country.
Normally first irrigation is given after 20-25 days after sowing and 2nd
irrigation is given just before heading stage and third irrigation is given at
milk maturity stage.
 Farmers of barani and irrigated areas are advised to remove weeds from
the fields wheat so that the present soil moisture may fully be utilized.
Falling leaves from the trees negatively affect standing Rabi crops like
wheat & other Rabi crops. Farmers should collect leaves from the crops as
early as possible so that crop normal growth may not be disturbed.
 Due to further drop of temperatures, especially farmers of upper areas are
advised to protect their crops from the frost.
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Spatial distribution maps
Precipitation
Temperature (Max./Min.)
ETo
Water Stress (Rain-ETo)
1. Past month
2. Seasonal (Rabi/Kharif)
Cumulative
3. Departure from normal
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Comparison of past month observation with normal
80
Relative Humidity (%)
RH
Normal
4
70
3
60
2
50
1
40
0
Actual
Soil Temperature (°C)
40
26
30
22
18
20
14
10
10
6
RAWALPINDI
FAISALABAD
5 cm
Normal
QUETTA
10 cm
TANDOJAM
ETo
ETO (mm/day)
0
Normal
Precepitation (mm)
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
“Average precipitation is expected during the season all over the
country with more snowfall over the northern region during
January.”
Average (± 15 %) precipitation is expected during predicted season.
In January slightly above normal precipitation over northern parts of
the country is expected with less than average night temperature over
central parts of the country.
 Density of fog will be less during upcoming winter months.
 Two to three rainy spells are expected during January. The focus of
rainy spell will be towards north and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
 Very limited chances of well rainy spell over southern Punjab and Sindh
during month of January.
 March may be dry month in most of agriculture plain however; light
precipitation is expected over northern parts of the country.
 Well intense snowfall spells over northern glaciers are expected during
January.
 Expected Minimum temperature will be below normal all over the
country during whole predicted months whereas March will be expected
colder month than normal over the country.
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
Jan, 2014
Ave
Exp
Feb, 2014
Ave
Exp
Mar, 2014
Ave
Exp
Jan-Mar, 2014
Ave
Exp
GB
27.2
Abv. Ave
29.7
Abv. Ave
34.6
Abv. Ave
91.5
Abv. Ave
KP
49.0
Ave
71.9
Abv. Ave
92.5
Blw. Ave
213.4
Blw. Ave
AJK
91.1
Blw. Ave
110.5
Blw. Ave
127.5
Blw. Ave
329.0
Blw. Ave
FATA
30.2
Ave
54.0
Abv. Ave
67.4
Blw. Ave
151.6
Abv. Ave
PUNJAB
17.2
Ave
27.2
Abv. Ave
30.9
Blw. Ave
75.2
Ave
BALUCHISTAN
19.5
Ave
20.9
Abv. Ave
23.3
Ave
63.7
Abv. Ave
SIND
3.0
Ave
5.4
Abv. Ave
4.7
Abv. Ave
13.1
Abv. Ave
Pakistan
20.8
Ave
27.2
Ave
31.7
Ave
79.6
Ave
•Ave. : average (1981-2010)
•Exp. : Expcted rainfall
•Below Average (Blw. Ave) < -15 %,
•Average precipitation range (Ave) = -15 to +15 %,
•Above Average (Abv.Ave) > +15 %
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (By using ECHAM4P5 model)
Monthly Agromet Bulletin
Seasonal weather outlook (with leading tome of three months)
Temperature(Max.)/Min.)
Expected
Departure form Normal
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Impact of Climate Change over Pakistan
Data and Methodology







Precipitation : Global precipitation climatology center
(GPCC), Version -6
Study period (1901-2010)
Resolution: 0.5 O Longitude by latitude
Divisions of study period: 1971-2000
1981-2010
2001-2010
Season: Winter (December-March)
Summer ( June- September)
Anomaly: departure of precipitation from average
Long Period Average (LPA) period 1901-2010
Yearly Precipitation analysis for the period 1901-2010
Yearly precipitation
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Yearly rainfall
Decadal average
Depicted significant variation in decadal average in last 30 years
2009
2006
2003
1997
2000
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
1946
1943
1940
1937
1934
1931
1928
1925
1922
1919
1916
1913
1910
1907
1904
1901
0.0
Yearly Precipitation anomaly analysis for the
period 1901-2010
Yearly Anomaly
20.0
Yearly Anomaly
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
Frequency of extreme weather increased
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
1951
1946
1941
1936
1931
1926
1921
1916
1911
1906
1901
-15.0
Climate change and Seasonal precipitation
Pakistan
45.0
precip. in mm/month
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Ave
1901-2010
WINTER
1971-2000
Average
No change
Winter
Slightly decreased
Summer
Slightly increased
SUMMER
1981-2010
2000-2010
No significant evidence of
climate change on average
precipitation
Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
Punjab
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
80.0
precip. in mm/month
precip. in mm/month
Sind
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Ave
1901-2010
WINTER
1971-2000
SUMMER
1981-2010
2000-2010
Ave
1901-2010
WINTER
1971-2000
Sind
Yearly
No change
Winter
No change
Summer
decreased
1981-2010
SUMMER
2000-2010
Punjab
No change
Slightly decreased
No change
increased
Slightly increased
Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
FATA
80.0
70.0
70.0
60.0
precip. in mm/month
precip. in mm/month
KP
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Ave
1901-2010
WINTER
1971-2000
1981-2010
SUMMER
2000-2010
Ave
1901-2010
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Yearly
No change
Winter
No change
Summer
increased
1971-2000
1981-2010
SUMMER
2000-2010
FATA
increased
Summer rainfall
increased
WINTER
increased
increased
Summer rainfall
increased significantly
Climate change and sub Regional precipitation
AKJ
GB
30.0
120.0
precip. in mm/month
precip. in mm/month
140.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Ave
1901-2010
WINTER
1971-2000
1981-2010
SUMMER
2000-2010
Ave
1901-2010
Kashmir
Yearly
decreased
Winter
No change
Summer
decreased
Summer rainfall
decreased in eastern
parts
WINTER
1971-2000
1981-2010
SUMMER
2000-2010
Gilgit Baltistan
increased
increased
increased
Slightly increased
Climate change and Monthly precipitation (Summer)
June
35.0
June
mm/month
Clear evidence of early start of
monsoonal rainfall
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
June
September
1901-2010
Clear evidence of early withdrawal of
monsoonal rainfall
Monsoon season starts in advance and
breakout early
1981-2010
2000-2010
September
mm/month
Monsoon rainfall (June-Sept)
1971-2000
21.8
21.6
21.4
21.2
21.0
20.8
20.6
20.4
20.2
20.0
19.8
September
1901-2010
1971-2000
1981-2010
2000-2010
Climate change and Monthly precipitation (Winter)
December
December
No Clear evidence of early start of
winter precipitation
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
December
December
1901-2010
Clear evidence of early finish of
winter precipitation
Winter precipitation (Dec-March)
Winter season become squeezed
1971-2000
1981-2010
2000-2010
1981-2010
2000-2010
March
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
March
1901-2010
1971-2000
Climate Change and Surface temperature of
Pakistan
Departure of Surface Temperature from LPA (1951-2000)
Spatial distribution of seasonal departure of surface temperature for
the period (2001-2010) from Long Period Average-LPA (1951-2000)
Jun-Aug
Dec-Feb
Surface Temperature. increased
Slightly increased in Surface Temperature
significantly over southern Punjab, upper all over the country
Sind
Conclusions-1
Meteorological Prospective
 Climate variability has been observed in the region.
 Frequency of extreme weather has been increased.
 No significant evidence of variation in seasonal normal of the






country has been investigated
No significant evidence is observed in Seasonal average precipitation
of Sind and Punjab.
Summer (Monsoon) rainfall increased in KP and FATA and deceased
in Kashmir
Clear evidence of expansion/shifting of monsoonal areas towards
west.
Monsoonal rain starts early.
Western disturbances weather systems (Winter) precipitation starts
in December and breakout in early march.
Precipitation intensity increases with decrease in precipitation
frequency
Conclusions-2
Agriculture Prospective
 Shifting of monsoonal belt towards west indicates
“Chances of flooding in Indus river basin increased and availability of
much water in eastern rivers of Pakistan (Ravi and Sutlej) has
decreased.”
 Most of agriculture land over bed of eastern rivers become
barren
 Agriculture land over bed of Indus river is on thread of
uncertain weather systems
Advance start of precipitation in the country
 Needs to modify Crop calendar on regional bases.
 New verities of crop should be introduced to cope up with
current weather situation
Frequency of extreme weather increased
 Chances of drought in different pockets of provinces.
Recommendations...
 Take initiative at different forum for proper and timely
dissemination of weather bulletins and advisories to the
end users.
 Expertise of agronomist should be added in the weather
bulletins to make it more agriculture oriented
 Strategy should be made to ensure food security in the
country due to increase of uncertainty weathers such as
drought in different areas of the country
 Needs to modify or prepare new cropping zones of the
county in the light of climate change scenarios
Thank You for your valuable time