Transcript - UNDP-ALM
ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION – A CASE OF KHULNA CITY WATER SECTOR PROJECTS Professor A.K. Enamul Haque PhD Department of Economics United International University Dhaka, Bangladesh Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: Regional Consultation on Capacity Building Needs in Asia 24-26 Seasons Hotel, Bangkok Thailand The views expressed areFour those of the presenter and should not be attributed to either UNDP or USAID. Furthermore, it is strongly recommended that both the PowerPoint slides and the videos of the presentation of content included herein are viewed in conjunction in order that statements appearing in the PowerPoint slides are not interpreted out of context. Climate Change Impact Pathways Sequences of change GHGs emission Global warming Changes in the climate Climate Events rapid onset events or climate extremes Cyclone, major flood, flash flood, GLOF Slow onset events Salinity, SLR, flood, storm surges, seasonal change, seasonal temperature fluctuations, etc. How climate change affect us? Climate Events Causes Mortality and Morbidity impacts DAMAGE to assets and properties LOSS of ecological services Provisional services Regulating services Cultural services Supporting services These events eventually affect people. How to understand the loss and damage? Events loss and damage because of Exposure of people and their asset to the event Intensity of the event Vulnerability due to socio-economic status As such climate evens trigger additional risks Development Projects should be planned to be robust enough to withstand these risks Need adaptation How to study economics of adaptation? Understand the impacts of climate events (arising due to climate change) on people Define the specific climate events in question. Find the extent (probable) of loss and damage the event might cause if it occurs Design adaptation strategies Adaptation means building resilience to withstand climate events Both soft and hard strategies needs to be understood Find the costs This means that the cost of adaptation is now defined. Climate Change and Public Expenditure Khulna City is a case study on understanding climate change impact on the city people and design appropriate adaptation strategies Issues at hand Define the climate events related to water infrastructure of the city due to climate change Design adaptation strategies to reduce or remove impacts Separate cost of adaptation from other project costs? Objective is to claim the ‘additional costs’ from climate funds/climate resilient fund/climate adaptation funds/climate trust fund? Khulna City Water Sector Khulna is a south-western metropolitan city with a population of about a million It is a major city of the country Salinity in water is rising Water-logging is increasing City is planning to upgrade its water infrastructure – Water supply and Drainage system This study is designed to understand the CC impact on this plan. Khulna City 31 Wards 1,000,000 Population (approx.) Rivers East – Rupsha and Bhairab West – Mayur Drainage through Mayur Land elevation 2.5m from the mean sea level Climate Induced Threats -Water logging -Salinity Intrusion -Cyclone/Storms Socio-economic team Study Method Climate Scenarios Data Collection Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic Scenarios How to assess ‘future’ damage and loss? We needed appropriate counterfactual scenarios for future situations 1. Look at super cyclones or major flooding occurred in recent past 2. Look at highly saline regions 3. Look at past coping and adaptive behavior of people of Khulna Climate model results Sea level rise in Bangladesh Integrate local environment from GCM resluts Now results are used in Regional Hydraulic Model and in Urban Drainage Model. Calibration and modeling Local conditions Rivers Canals Wetlands Drainage system Sea water level rise Rainfall Socio-economic variations Future city expansion plan Changes in land use2030 and 2050 2050 water-logging by Ward Measuring climate change impacts Economy in 2030 and 2050? Changes in socio-economic variables Adaptation options Issues at hand for CBA Damage estimates due to climate events per episode (average of 10 years value) Damage function Estimation of avoided damages (benefits) 2050 water logging Impact of Adaptation Damage estimates … Elements of BCA Benefit cost ratio Benefit cost ratio Learning CC adaptation study Requires multi-disciplinary team Needs to understand climate events, climate risks Use future climate scenarios Needs to develop socio-economic scenarios for the future Identify additional costs in project Justify which adaptation measures make sense. Access international finance mechanism to pay for climate related adaptation costs.