Transcript Exploring Plan C - Community Solutions

Exploring Community Solutions’
Plan C: Dealing with Climate Change,
Peak Oil and Rising Inequity
Presented by
Pat Murphy,
Executive Director,
Community Solutions
Yellow Springs, OH 45387
March 2010
The Arthur Morgan Institute for
Community Solutions (CS)



Founded in 1940 to advocate for Small Communities
Arthur Morgan’s view
 Humans develop best in a particular place over generations
 Interact in a “face-to-face” manner – our “Home Town”
In 2003 CS began studying Climate Change and Peak Oil
 Factors that may lead to small community resurgence
 Represents a trend to “relocalization/localization”
 (Related but not identical)
Sustainability Needs a New Definition

Four interrelated threats to humanity




Increasing CO2 (from burning fossil fuels)
 Threatens life on earth
Shrinking amounts of fossil fuels – “Peak Oil (Energy)”
 Implies a declining material standard of living
Record inequity – result of cheap fuels and cheap credit
 More violence, suffering and alienation today
 Related to current economic crisis
Population growth
 Can the earth support 7 billion people?
The Threat of Climate Change


CO2 – 387 ppm; increasing 2.1 ppm annually
James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!
World Facing Energy Limits



Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says will be in 2010
IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – Fatih Birol says 2020
10 years difference is small – agreement that it is real
World Inequity Highest in History


Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974
Contraction & Convergence Movement –
Europe and NGOs
Unsustainable Population Growth


This is a very serious problem
Also each person is consuming more energy !
What’s the Common Factor?

Cheap, plentiful fossil fuel energy
 Peak Oil implies it’s going to end
 Climate change shows consuming it is very dangerous
 Inequity implies it’s unequally distributed & undemocratic
 Population growth based on a temporary source of food

How have we talked about this?
 “We must become more ‘sustainable’”!

But few know how or exactly what that means

However – more and more are becoming aware of the crises
 And they are proposing solutions
Three Current Technology/Societal Options



Plan A – Black (fossil fuel technology)
 More oil, gas, tar sands
 Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car companies
 Maintain current life style – 95% of population
Plan B – Green (solar, wind, switch grass) technology
 Focused primarily on intermittent electricity generation
 Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown, environmental NGOs
 Maintain current life style – 5% of population
Plan C – high-satisfaction, low-energy lifestyle
 Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage
 Change current life style – 1% or less of population
Plan C Questions Modern Technology – Problem
or Solution?



10,000 years of Agrarian living
 ~250 years of technology living
 65 years hyper-technology living
Modern world is an “energy” world
Technology is limited
 Fuel cell car a 30 year effort
 Electric cars 90 years old
 Fusion 40 years late
Energy Sources Are Limited



Fossil Fuels and Uranium
Oil and Gas
Coal-Tar Sands-Oil Shale
Nuclear fission
Nuclear fusion
Not enough resources
Not enough atmosphere
Not enough resources
Too difficult
Renewables
Biomass (burn food for fuel)
Hydroelectric
Hydrogen folly
Photovoltaic & wind power
Not enough air/water/soil
Not enough sites
Uses energy to make hydrogen
Proven – but will they scale?
Why are there so few options?
 Are we at a point of diminishing returns?
 Has anything new been added since energy crisis of 1970s?
Energy Devices Are Limited

Fuel Cell cars a 30-year debacle
 $17 billion spent – few cars

EV a less expensive debacle
 Few $ billion spent – 4,000 made



PHEV next techno fix – a coal car
 Only a bit less CO2 per mile than a hybrid
Green Building doesn’t save much energy
 15-25% savings at best: need 80-90%
Repeat – Why are there so few options?
 Is technology at a point of diminishing returns?
Plan C – A Contingency Plan
Curtail Consumption Fast

Community survival strategies
 Key word is survivable – not sustainable
 We must cut energy use – fast!

Cuts must be deep and quick
 IPCC: 80-90% by 2050; 3-4% yearly
 Can’t wait for possible techno-fixes

Our focus:
 Cut energy under personal control
 House, food, cars – 2/3 U.S. energy
Plan C – A “Community” Context
High-Satisfaction, Low-Energy Lifestyle

A “sufficiency” life style
 Cooperating vs. Competing
 Sharing vs. Hoarding
 Saving vs. Consuming

Context where curtailment is not suffering
 Happiness is in relating, not accumulating
 “Live simply that others may simply live”

Community is a cooperation principle
 Now high-consumption competitive living
 Need high-satisfaction cooperative living
Science of Plan C

Our work is technology/science-based
 Technology of depletion – proven by M. King Hubbert
 Climate Science – more or less well accepted now (IPCC)
 Psychology/Sociology – “Bowling Alone”
 Ecological economics

Our research is in Plan C intermediate technology
 Buildings, personal transportation, food


Plan C challenges false technical promises – green or black
Plan C insists on measuring “sustainability”
 BOE consumed, CO2 generated and PPP changes
Per Capita Thinking – “If You Can’t Measure
It, You Can’t Manage It!”

Need to deeply understand energy and CO2 accounting
 Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI)
 Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)
 Embodied Energy vs. Operating Energy (EE and OE)

Deep understanding requires per capita comparisons
 Nation comparisons are always misleading
 Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous

There are three key “macro” considerations
 CO2 generation (tonnes per capita per year)
 Energy consumption (BOE per capita per year)
 Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)
World Organization by Energy

Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development – OECD



OECD-L = OECD minus US. (Turkey, Mexico moved to ROW)
US is a separate category of its own
82% of all people live in ROW (Rest of World)
IPCC Requires 90% CO2 Reduction by 2050

Per capita comparison
 33 most populous nations
 80% of world population
 Also OECD-L and ROW

Survival (sustainable) level
 1 tonne CO2 yearly
per capita 2050
 4 tonne CO2 world average today
 19 tonne CO2 US average today

U.S. greatest CO2 contributor
 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2
 Needs a 90% cut
Energy Consumption and CO2

Per capita comparison
 Same 33 nations
 And OECD – L/ROW

Chart shape the same


CO2 = 2.3 times energy
HxCy >> CO2 + heat
CO2 & Energy Relationship
Energy Consumption and Income

PPP – Purchasing Power Parity

IEA - International Energy Agency
 CIA data Is similar
 Larger numbers – same shape

Causal or correlative?
 Is $$$ = energy
 “Our economy runs on oil”
CO2 Emissions & Income
U.S. Energy Consumption Breakdown

Population: U.S. – 300M; OECD-L – 700M; ROW – 5,700M

U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home)
Meeting 80 – 90% Reduction Targets



Target 1 – Housing (15.4 BOE/c/year)
 Deep building retrofits – Model is German Passive House
Affordable Comfort, Inc.’s 1,000 Home Challenge is retrofit
model
Target 2 – Cars (13.5 BOE/c/year)
 Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit – 30 companies
 Electric bicycles – China’ real transportation growth
 Motor coaches between cities
Target 3 – Food (10 BOE/c/year)
 Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products
 Change your diet to locally grown non-industrial food
Target #1 – U.S. Homes – Size Matters Most

Per capita square foot
 1950 – 260
 2008 – 800

New U.S. home size
 1950 – 1,000 sq. ft.
 2008 – 2,400 sq. ft

U.S. residences almost twice
as large as Europe or Japan

This is a cultural issue
U.S. Energy Use in Buildings

50% of U.S. energy is used in buildings
 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy

U.S. has about 115 million residences (80 million buildings)
 Most will need to be retrofitted
“Green Building” – Too Little, Too Late
LEED and Energy Star Ineffective



Green programs reduce energy
use by 15-20%
 Need 80-90%
“Green buildings” about 5% of new
construction
 Less than 1% of existing homes
are “green” after 10 years
Will take decades to turn over the
building stock
Needed – A Thick, Tight Building Envelope
The German Passive House

Passive Houses use 90% less heating and cooling energy
 They have no external heat source or air conditioning
 Super-insulated and super air tight
13th Annual Passive House Conference

Held April 2009 in Frankfurt, Germany
 1,200 attendees from around world
 100 presenters

Tours of homes/schools

About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date

18 years since first one was built – a maturing technology
 Great windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants

Achieving 90% heating/cooling energy reduction

Germans credit U.S. builders of 1970s as inventors!
Challenge – Retrofit Existing Buildings

1,000-square-foot Carriage House
 Thicken walls, roof, floors
 First floor 4” rigid, 7-” fiberglass
 Double wall added – 12’ total
 Roof rafters – from 2x4 to 2x12

Installed a HRV heat exchanger
 Required for Passive Houses

Replaced windows

A model for retrofitting
Target #2 – The Private Car

U.S. has 220+ million cars/SUVs/pickups
 U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide





U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world
Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime
75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide
 Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly
U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg
Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades
 Hybrids are less than 1% of cars on road after 10 years
 Sales are between 2-3% of total sales
 This is a little known “scale” issue
Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)

Efficiency isn’t the answer
 From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars?
 3 times the efficiency – 4 times the number of cars
 1-2% yearly tech improvements and population increase
 2-4% yearly oil depletion rate
U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone


Passengers per trip – U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008
There are many empty seats moving around
Conventional Mass Transit Questionable

Mass transit typically just supplements cars
 Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations
 In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit

Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile)

Private Car – 3,496
SUV
– 4,329

Bus Transit – 4,318
Airplane
– 3,959

Amtrak Train – 2,760
Rail transit – 2,569

Vanpool
– 1,294


Some people object to these numbers – researching more now
 U.S. Transportation Energy Data Book 2008
How much and how long for a mass transit system?
 Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?
What About a Jitney?

A small bus that carries
passengers over a regular route
on a flexible schedule

An unlicensed taxicab

Essence of the Jitney
 Shared transit with private cars
 Not mass transit with buses

Every existing car can be jitney

Common in 85% of world

Can cut energy use 80%
The “Smart” Jitney

Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off
 Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules

Made possible by new communications/GPS technology
 A software problem – not hardware; all components exist!

First U.S. conference held in April, 2009 at MIT
 Also called dynamic ride sharing

Status – Operational!!!
 Avego of Ireland has test systems running
 Should expect announcements soon in California
 Can get software with an IPHONE – start today!
Target #3 – Food



May be the hardest change – behavior modification
 But the easiest physically – no new technology
Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods
 Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan books explain this
 Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars
 Suffering of containment food animals is beyond belief
Garden and buy locally grown food
 CS has its own garden – supports CSAs

John Michael Greer – organic garden is contemporary!!

Restore rural America – an Agrarian Society
Local Work in Yellow Springs


Council formed Electrical System Task Force in 2007
 Cancelled a new $3 million electrical substation
 Withdrew from planned AMP–Ohio coal plant
 Formed Energy Task Force for long range planning
New home energy audit company formed – Net0Homes
 Net0Homes, CS and University of Dayton Partnership

CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership

CS submitted bid for DOE Retrofit program in December


A partnership of 5 organizations
Must measure usage and design solutions – not easy
Time Is Getting Short





Peak Oil could occur any day
 IEA has acknowledge Peak Oil – Says 2020
 Dates are less important than the acknowledgement
Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate”
 Artic ice melt is accelerating
Survivability needs 80-90% reduction of energy use (3-4% yearly)
 “Incrementalism is death”… Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)
No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV
Must change habits and way of life – become different people
 Using intermediate low risk technologies
Expect a Community Resurgence

Early 2000s was like pre-depression period (roaring 1920s)

Things were declining rapidly before October 1929 – like now

The financial crisis is a crisis of character
 The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes
 Consumer debt triggered both depressions
 Free market has become a license to steal

Community provides an alternative value system
 Cooperation, not competition
 Values of “caring and sharing”
Summary

CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community
 Assumes no techno-fixes can maintain current way of life

CS projects are directed at personal consumption (2/3 of energy)
 Working with Low Energy building organizations – Affordable
Comfort, Inc., Passive House Institute-US, 2FOR1, DOE
 Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego)
 Working with local farmers for local food production

Our view – a return to high-satisfaction, low-energy communities
 World sacrificed community for consumerism
 Horrible mistake – community will be reborn
 Strong community means less materialism (energy)
Einstein’s Reminder



“We can't solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when we
created them”
It’s time for new values
and new thinking
 Relationships better than stuff
 “Live simply so others may simply live”
 Others include our children!
Plan C offers both