Transcript Causal Loop Diagram of the Auckland Region 22 March 2012

Mediated Modelling
Integrating the four aspects of well-being in Auckland
to support Spatial Planning
Sustainable Pathways 2 Project
Goal: to provide synergistic tools to support integrated, decision
making in Auckland and Wellington.
Outputs:
1. A system dynamics model that can be used by a wide
range of stakeholders
2. A spatial decision support system operated by council
staff
Both models allow the simulation of development pathways and
visualisation of future change.
The System Dynamics Model
• This model was developed using mediated modelling and
therefore reflects the views of the stakeholders involved
• It integrates the four aspects of well-being (cultural,
social, economic and environmental)
• The feedback loops and delays can be described using a
Causal Loop Diagram as follows:
The Story of the Auckland Region in a
Causal Loop Diagram
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
Education
R1
Education Drives Growth
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
Under the anticipated population growth scenarios about
60,000 new students will need education. When more children
are educated, they have more chance of being employed
resulting in more economic activity and therefore a more
attractive region. The latter will foster more migration to the
region resulting in a reinforcing feedback loop.
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
Education also improves
health
which in turn
improves
employment,
the regional economy and
the attractiveness of the
region.
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
More people employed and an attractive regional economy increases the public funds
(such as taxes due to more inhabitants) that can be derived from this economy. More
funds can e.g. Be spend on the restoration of natural capital. However, it takes time to
restore natural capital and derive ecosystem service benefits!
The next loop in this diagram is a
balancing loop as population growth
puts pressure on the health care
system (e.g. more people, as a
fraction of a growing population,
require health care services. How
well the healthcare services meet the
demand for healthcare services, in
turn impacts employment and the
regional economy.
If demand is
higher than supply a negative impact
on the attractiveness of the region
emerges
through
increased
unemployment affecting migration
flows lowering the population.
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
Population Growth sets
pressure on Health System
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
-
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
Population Growth sets
pressure on Health System
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
A second balancing loop
is related to population
growth
negatively
affecting natural capital
though urbanisation.
R2
-
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
Population
density
is
currently chosen as a proxy
for deprivation and poverty
influencing “housing”. This
impacts
ethnic
groups
differently
and
thereby
impacts on Education (and
Health).
+
B3
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
-
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
+
B3
Population growth also
demands more transport.
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
+
-
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
Transport
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
+
B3
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
-
Transport
+
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
Natural Capital affects
active mode in transport,
which impacts on Health,
i.e. Reducing the fraction
of young and elderly
requiring
health
care
services.
+
B3
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
-
Transport
+
+
?
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
Transport impacts health
through active mode (and
emissions).
External
factors
(e.g.,
climate
change)
impact
population growth.
External Factors
(e.g., climate change)
+
B3
+
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
-
Transport
+
+
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
?
External Factors
(e.g., climate change)
+
B3
+
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
-
Transport
+
+
?
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
?
Cultural
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
Reminder to link the
“Cultural sector” into this
causal loop diagram
External Factors
(e.g., climate change)
+
B3
+
Social
(e.g., Housing
Crowding crowding)
Population Growth sets
impacts
pressure on Health System education
B1
Population
& cultural diversity
+
+
-
Education
R1
+
Education Drives Growth
R2
health
Education Improves Health
which Drives Growth
B2
Population Growth sets
pressure on Natural Capital
+
-
Transport
+
+
?
+
+
Employment
Economics
Attractiveness
Funding
?
Cultural
R3
Employment generates taxes for
the restoration of Natural Capital
Natural Capital
+
+
Governance or policies
solutions
THE END!
Conclusions
• Interlinkages and time lags are important to future
outcomes.
• The Causal Loop Diagram is one way to visualise the
important linkages and time lags built into the system
dynamics model.
• The Story underlying the Causal Loop Diagram allows
stakeholders to communicate the interlinkages and time
lags to others.