Transcript national security and climate change paxton noaa cpasw

National Security and
Climate Change
POC: Dr. Larry J. Paxton
Head: Geospace and Earth Sciences
[email protected]
240.228.6871
Bill Swartz, Maegen Nix, Bob Schaefer, Glen Fountain,
Shay Strong, Michele Weiss, Steve Babin
Addressing Critical Challenges
 The Applied Physics Laboratory is a division of The Johns
Hopkins University
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About 5800 people at APL
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Space Department (about 750 people)
- Civilian Space and National Security Space
- Programs encompass space segment from cubesats to large spacecraft and
basic to applied research
- Student involvement
- Academia, industry, DoD, and national security activities
GAIA is a cross cutting initiative that addresses the intersection of
weather, long-term weather, and security
Tools range from cost effective knowledge access to collaborative
analysis (including games and scenarios) to modeling and simulations
and social network analysis
School of Public Health
School for Advanced International Studies
School of Business
College of Engineering
College of Arts and Sciences (Earth and Planetary Sciences)
Climate Disruption is a Global Threat
to the Security of Nations
 How do we communicate this idea?
 What does security mean?
 What are some of the issues that fall within that
realm?
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What is the role of climate disruption?
How do we plan for the future?
What does the future look like?
 What are the tools for developing adaptation,
mitigation, and response strategies?
 Why should you listen to this?
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We need to reinvigorate our R&D environment – to do
that we have to cast what we do in a way that people
can support.
Research Must Appeal to (Other)
Human Needs
Maslow’s hierarchy of
needs from Wikipedia
 Communication is a key challenge facing research (climate
prediction) activities
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Why?
What? When? Where? How?
Research Must Appeal to (Other)
Human Needs
Need for the science of
climate
Need for actionable
climate knowledge
 We seek perfection in our knowledge but at what point will our ability
to “predict” the future climate be determined by our inability to
predict human action more than by our lack of specificity in the initial
conditions?
What is “national security”?
 War is typically regarded in terms of “force on force” conflict.
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Clausewitz:” an act of violence to compel the enemy to do our
will”
Peace of Westphalia (1684) defined the concept of the sovereign
state as the vehicle of interaction in a conflict
Asymmetric, irregular or unrestricted warfare uses subversion,
insurgency, terror, etc
• Limited means to counter this as “force on force”
• Information/knowledge axis becomes an important component
 Security could be taken to mean the ability to
prevent/survive/win a war.
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This is too limiting.
 National security embodies the means by which a state is free
to act without being dictated to or coerced by an outside
influence.
We Must Transform What We Do and How We
Do It
 The challenge is to transform basic and applied research
in science, public health, and policy into the tools needed
to plan for, assess the risk of, adapt to, and mitigate the
long- and near-term impacts of the environment on
national security – and “make it stick”.
Food price index and riots (death toll)
In Physics and Society
Report number: NECSI 2011-07-01
Why? Climate Disruption Impacts
Security
 Daniel Deudney “The case
against linking environmental
degradation and national
security” J. Int. Studies 19,
461-476, 1990.
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Useful description of why one
might think we don’t have to worry
about climate change
Not an adequate description of the
current world dynamic
 Traditional force-on-force view
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Asymmetric threats can, however,
bring about rewards
 Failed nation states exhibit
Failed States according to the "Failed States
sensitivity to climate
Index" of Foreign Policy from wikipedia
perturbations including lack of
resilience
Food is an Important Element of
Diplomacy as is an Asymmetric Threat
Warmer global mean temperatures
produce more extreme weather
(Urban) Water Security Issues are Complex and
Extend Beyond the Urban Environment
 Local issues
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Sewerage
Water for domestic
uses
Industry
Power generation
Recreation
Tourism
Psychological feeling
of well-being
Emergency
management
Flood control/erosion
 Broader issues
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Social/environmental
justice
Economic
competitiveness
Habitat protection
Erosion/flood control
Energy costs
Policy/legal/compliance
Water quality
Health and safety
Water availability is tied to energy use for pumping and sanitation
as well as the continuity of infrastructure
Causes and effects
Climate change, land use change, population growth, energy costs
Temperature, precipitation amount and timing, land surface quality, pollution
sources (agriculture, urban pollution)
Extreme
Events
Water
Security
Food
Security
Coastal
Resilience
Floods, droughts, excessive runoff, dead zones, pathogens, invasive species,
revenue loss, aquifer depletion, saltwater intrusion
Cost, quality of life, national stability
Climate Disruption Couples to the
Stability of States
 Interstate violence from internal
turmoil
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Counterbalances: Sustainability,
growth and security
Social media may promote
social/religious/ethnic strife,
migration, abets criminal activity
 Access and control of natural
resources
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Counterbalances: Trade, conquest
is expensive, technology enables
adjustment
Water and energy scarcity are
new elements – driven by
population dynamics, social
media, and economics
Source: United Nations
Environmental Program
Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR
In a Flat World no Impacts are Local
 Trans-border impacts are
becoming both recognizable
and attributable
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Spread of disease
Pollution (air/water/coastal
environment)
Dust from farming practices
Runoff leading to silt/sediment
Fisheries contention
Aquifers and basins
Geo-engineering
Global competition for
resources
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Trade in “virtual water”
Dust blown from China over the
Korean peninsula and Japan.
Climate change will affect
water security
Rain-fed agriculture “hotspots”
Availability of water in
Africa is driven by
many factors in
addition to rainfall
and topography.
Poverty, lack of
planning,
urbanization and
population growth
are strong drivers.
Much of the available
water is also
contaminated due
to infrastructure
and public health
issues.
Climate change will affect
water security
Rain-fed agriculture “hotspots”
Food Security and Water
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The watershed basin of
Lake Chad makes up just
over eight per cent of the
surface area of Africa, and
falls across the boundaries
of eight countries
Nigeria has one quarter of
the population of Africa
Migration and radicalization
of the urban and rural
population (potentially
enabled by social media)
may have far-reaching
consequences.
A Key Element in Decision Making is
Understanding Risk
 Both DSB Task Force
report and NRC report
America’s Climate
Choices call attention to
long tail events and to
tipping points.
 A prudent course is to
consider
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more extensive
monitoring
Investigating non-linear
interactions among
system elements
And examining
cost/benefit of
addressing the “long
tail” events
From Defense Science Board Task
Force on Trends and Implications of
Climate Change for National and
International Security, 2011, pg 133.
Precipitation
Extremes Impact
Operations
 Military training, infrastructure and
operations are impacted by weather.
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Weather extremes impact designs
and performance of humans and
systems
 2011 was the 2nd wettest year over
land on record since 1900
 2010 was the wettest.
 Drier than average conditions were
widespread across much of French
Polynesia, the Solomon Islands,
Hawaiian Islands, northwestern
Canada, and southwestern China.
 The wettest regions included much of
Central America, Micronesia,
northern Brazil, and the northeastern
U.S.
Precipitation
Extremes Impact
Operations
 Military training, infrastructure and
operations are impacted by weather.
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Weather extremes impact designs
and performance of humans and
systems
 2011 was the 2nd wettest year over
land on record since 1900
 2010 was the wettest.
 Drier than average conditions were
widespread across much of French
Polynesia, the Solomon Islands,
Hawaiian Islands, northwestern
Canada, and southwestern China.
 The wettest regions included much of
Central America, Micronesia,
northern Brazil, and the northeastern
U.S.
Tipping Point Drivers are Global
When a “Tipping Point” is Triggered
Depends on the Temperature Trajectory
US Navy Arctic
Operations
 Changes in Arctic Ice will
lead to an enhanced
HA/DR and security role
for the Navy.
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Impact of collapse of the
food web on ecology and
native peoples
Transiting vessels
Resource contention and
protection
Methane hydrate mining
and/or release
ACIA. 2004. Impacts of Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Fetterer,
F., and K. Knowles. 2002, updated 2004. Sea ice index. Boulder, CO:
National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media.
(ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/ Accessed
October 2007) from UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Food and water security are driven
by social factors and weather
 In addition to the
“linear” impacts of
population growth
there are other
factors that may have
non-linear
consequences.
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Energy costs
Climate disruption
 Water security is tied
to the stability of
nations through food
security, trade, public
health, economic
stability, energy
costs, and more
Our “science focus” seldom includes the
coupling of the human factors to the
environment.
Human-experienced timescales are
“weather timescales”
How do you understand this
system?
 The system is inherent complex and it may be chaotic.
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Characterized by quasi-stable conditions that are persistent in the face
of small perturbations.
Relatively small differences in initial conditions may lead to large
changes in the final state
 We expect science to provide “predictions” on the macro-scale
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But our daily lives and none of the systems that we deal with are
predictable
We act as though systems are predictable
Past behavior is usually a reasonable guide to future performance
 We need to construct a system in which we can account for
uncertainty without refusing to accept that it may guide our
preparation for a future
Adaptation must cover a broad spectrum
of consequences and effects
 The challenge is to address basic needs under internal and
external stress
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Resiliency through
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Water and food security
Public health
Energy availability and affordability
Internal physical security
Disaster recovery capability – internally or externally supplied
Human security
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Dislocation of the people
- Internal or external
Conflict
- Armed or economic
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Political continuity
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Continuity of governance (rule of law)
Economic viability
Growth of number of failed/failing nation states and their impact on
others
Climate Adaptation and Behavior
• Psychology plays a
significant role in climate
adaptation.
• Sub-optimal climate
adaptation decisions may
result when:
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Individuals misperceive
risk, or
Institutional structures
encourage maladaptive
action
Discounting of
consequences
Model of cognitive process for adaptation (Adapted from Grothmann and Patt, 2005)
“National Security” is Intended
Secure the Survival of the State
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Currently and for the near-term future the US has overwhelming
conventional military might
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Sun Tzu: “the acme of skill is defeating the enemy without fighting”
DIMEFIL – codifies the instruments of the state power
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Competition arises between nation states
Competitors will focus on non-military instruments of power
Diplomacy
Information
Military
Economic
Financial
Intelligence
Legal/Law Enforcement
PMESII reflects how Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure and
Information systems within a particular unit are influenced by state power
When we talk about the impact of changes in average weather (climate
disruption) we can frame the impact in these terms and view our ability to
respond in this context as well.
To connect to the users “climate studies” have to be connected to impacts
and/or the ability to act.
Gaming Decisions Reflect Real Life
Without Predicting the Future
 What kind of decisions are made?
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Which actions to take, to what degree, and in what manner
With whom to ally, cooperate
Where to take actions
 What drives the decisions?
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Availability of resources
Strategy, projected efficacy of actions
Cooperation of local/regional actors
 What is learned from the outcomes?
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Stochastic element varies results
Unintended consequences – can you get “there” from
“here”?
Potential second-order effects – non-linear coupling
producing unexpected outcomes
Competitive Influence Game:
Key Concepts and Components
• Scenario – Provides background and objectives
• Actors – Players represent key stakeholder decision makers
• Non-player actors (NPAs) – aggregated populations and communities
• Resources – Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Infrastructure, and Law
Enforcement (DIMEFIL) points available to take actions
• Characteristics – Hubris & Influence affect cooperation
• Regions – Game map represents distinct areas, which have scores for their Political, Military
(Law Enforcement), Economic, Social, Information & Infrastructure (PMESII)
• Facilities – Potential ‘improvements’ on map: enablers, resource bonuses
• Affinity – Represents how NPAs feel about all actors (+3 to -3 score)
• Economics – Represents level of trade between actors (0 to 10)
Decision-Making and Risk-Assessment is
a Coupled and On-going Process
R&D is Needed to Support Risk
Assessment
 Integrate social science into the problem space
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The role of social media
Changing population dynamics
 Identify the key vulnerabilities in our assessments as well as
in our systems
 Determine what drives the uncertainty in our predictions
(inputs or responses)
 Develop a risk monitoring mechanism for assessing key
metrics and then insure that we have the means to monitor
those traceable metrics
 Provide an assess of the state of our understanding of the
risks – not just the science
 Strive to develop an “early warning system” for unexpected
consequences of changes.
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Move from disaster recovery to disaster amelioration
Change attitudes toward preparation
Where to Next?
From
Defense
Science
Board Task
Force on
Trends and
Implications
of Climate
Change for
National
and
Internation
al Security,
2011, pg
105.
Challenge: Develop and Implement an
Integrated Decision Support Environment
GAIA supports
multi-directional
cross-disciplinary
knowledge
exchange
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The APL/GAIA systems approach works on large- and small-scale problems –
leverages over 50 years of operations research as well as space activities
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Examples include:
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Talk by Dr. Bill Swartz Thursday afternoon
The role of energy supplies and costs on future Navy operations
Water and global security in South Asia
Changes in the Chesapeake Bay and the interplay between weather, climate and the economy
Public health, security and weather
GAIA is developing tools for educating decision makers and the public on the
connection between national security and the environment.
http://gaia.jhuapl.edu