Transcript SEECOF – Branko Bijelic

WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in
support of NHMSs and RCOFs
Use of GPC products by SEECOF
(Method of use in preparing Climate Outlook)
Branko Bijelić
RA VI RCC-South East Europe Virtual Climate Change Center
(SEEVCCC)/RHMS of Serbia
Team of the RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
The functions of the South East European Virtual Climate
Change Center (SEEVCCC) hosted by the RHMS of Serbia
(RHMSS) as a member of the WMO RCC-Networks
- support of the SEECOF process RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMS of Serbia as a member of all 3 RA VI
Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and WMO RA VI RCC-Networks (on
Climate Data, Climate Monitoring and Long-Range Forecast) fulfills its:
 mandatory and
 highly recommended functions
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Earth Integrated Modeling System – the global NCEP NMM-B atmospheric
model coupled with the Ocean model and with the introduced Aerosols and
Hydrological Cycles
WMO – SDS-WAS (Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System)
One of the functions is also the provision of technical, scientific, and
any other support to the SEECOF process in accordance with a
resolution of the XV session of RA VI, document 4.2 (2009)
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
South-East European & Caucasus (SEECOF) region
SEECOF-1 – the first RCOF on the territory of RA VI, organized in
Zagreb, Croatia in June 2008
SEECOF-2 – face-to-face RCOF held in Budapest, Hungary in November
2009
SEECOF-3 – the first online meeting in the period April-May 2010
SEECOF-5 – face-to-face meeting in Belgrade, Serbia in November 2011
SEECOF-6 – online meeting in April-May 2011
----SEECOF-8 – face-to-face meeting in Podgorica, Montenegro in November
2012
-------SEECOF-10 – face-to-face meeting in Belgrade, Serbia in November 2013
19 NMHSs of the countries of the SouthEast Europe and Caucasus region:
-Albania,
-Armenia,
-Azerbaijan
-Bosnia and Herzegovina/Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
-Bosnia and Herzegovina/Republic of
Srpska,
-Bulgaria,
-Croatia,
-Cyprus,
-Georgia,
-Greece,
-Hungary
-Israel,
-Republic of Moldova,
-Montenegro,
-Romania
-Serbia,
-Slovenia,
-The Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia,
-Turkey
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
GPC, LC and RCC products used in the preparation
of SEECOF Consensus Statement Climate Outlooks
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 Bulletins from the
RA VI RCC nodes
on: CM and LRF
GPC ECMWF (Reading),
GPC Meteo-France (Toulouse),
GPC UKMO (Exeter),
GPC NCEP (Washington),
EUROSIP,
WMO LC MME (12 GPCs),
RA VI RCC LC on LRF Bulletins (MF),
RA VI RCC LC on CM Bulletins (DWD),
RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS member of
the RA VI RCC Networks (LRF, CM, CD)
 CPC NCEP ENSO diagnostic
discussion
Seasonal maps for meteorological parameters: T2m, Temp
850 hPa, MSLP, 500 GPH, precipitation, SST in terms of:
 Ensemble mean
 Probability: for most likely category, by tercile categories, of outer
quintiles
 Anomaly correlation, ROC scores and reliability for tercile
categories
 Simple composite map anomaly
 Composite MME Forecast from all 12 GPCs from the WMO Leading
Centre for LRF MME(www.wmolc.org)
 Consistency map of all 12 GPCs (www.wmolc.org)
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS products as support
to the SEECOF process
 Climate monitoring (maps & CWS
Bulletins)
 LRF products (website maps with
monthly temporal resolution, DPCP on
http://wisgeo.hidmet.gov.rs:8080/geonetwork/srv/en/main.ho
me)
 Training courses
 Moderating collaboration between the
NMHSs of the SEECOF region
 SEECOF Forum with its role of the host
of virtual meetings, as an archive for all
past (7) meetings, as a place for the
exchange of scientific papers or ideas
related to the Climate research for the
region as well as the suggestions of
topic for future training courses
 Cooperation with neighboring RCOFs
(NEACOF)
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
Examples of the SEECOF and RA VI RCCSEEVCCC/RHMSS products for end-users
Weather
outlook
for
summer 2013 in Serbia
Graphical presentation 2013
summer temperature outlook
Graphical presentation 2013
summer precipitation outlook
Overall, summer 2013 is
expected to be warmer than
average across entire Serbia,
although not as 2012’s scorcher,
which ranked as the warmest ever
since
the
meteorological
observations in Serbia began.
Summer 2013 will characterize
below
to
near
average
precipitation sums nevertheless
without lengthy dry periods as
last year. Furthermore, it is
noteworthy to mention that
despite these conditions, there
will also be a chance of more
rainfall in the mountain areas due
to the formation of the convective
cloud cover and the occurrence of
heavy showers.
According to the Climate Watch, June 2013 is expected to be colder than average. It is forecast that during June, July
and August the number of tropical days, exceeding 30°C will range between 22 to 38, 34 and 4 in Belgrade and
mountain areas, respectively. The number of tropical nights (with minimum air temperature above 20°C) will amount
to 16 in Belgrade and 7 elsewhere (apart from the mountain areas).
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
Forum on RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS site
The Forum was prepared with the aim of fulfilling the goals of the SEECOF meetings
in cooperation RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS with the WMO Secretariat and the CoChair of the Working Group for Climate and Hydrology WMO RA VI and it can be
found on the link: www.seevccc.rs/forum.
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
WWW.HIDMET.GOV.RS
WWW.SEEVCCC.RS
WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs,
November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil