Transcript Predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in Malaysia

Predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in
Malaysia
MALAYSIA’S CLIMATE
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Malaysia has a tropical climate: hot and humid
General characteristics
 uniform air temperature
 high humidity
 high and heavy rainfall
 low wind speed
 cloudy
 rarely clear skies even during drought periods
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha; Springer, Netherlands, 2005
Köppen Climate Classification System
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5 climate regions
 A - Tropical Moist Climates: all months have average
temperatures above 18° Celsius
 B - Dry Climates: with deficient precipitation during
most of the year
 C - Moist Mid-latitude Climates with Mild Winters
 D - Moist Mid-Latitude Climates with Cold Winters
 E - Polar Climates: with extremely cold winters and
summers
Mean annual cloud cover (1983-2008)
International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov
Rossow, W.B., and Schiffer, R.A., 1999: Advances in Understanding Clouds from ISCCP. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2261-2288.
Mean for whole Earth = 240 Wm-2 per day
http://www.scilogs.eu/en/blog/spacetimedreamer/2009-06-15/the-sunniest-and-darkest-places-on-earth
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Monthly relative humidty (RH)
 mean monthly 70 to 90%
 difference between mean monthly min. and max. RH
about 3-15%
 usually min. RH in Jan-Feb
 except east coast Kelatan and Terengganu, min
RH during March
 usually max. RH in Nov
 in Peninsular, average 84% in Feb. and 88% in Nov.
 but Northwest states in Peninsular: 72% in Feb.
and 87% in Nov
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Daily RH
 Northwest states also has the highest diurnal
variation in RH
 in dry months, min daily RH can be 42%
 in wet months min daily RH can be as high as 70%
 max daily RH does not vary much from place to place
 never below 94% RH
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Annual air temperature
 Being near the equator, Malaysia has a uniform
temperature throughout the year
 annual variation less than 2 C except for the east
coast areas in Peninsular Malaysia which are
affected by cold winds from Siberia during the
northeast monsoon (< 3 C variation)
Daily air temperature
 typically varies between 20-30 C
 5-10 C variation in coastal areas
 8-12 C variation in inland areas
 very rarely above 38 C
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Monthly air temperature
 Apr-May have the highest monthly air temperature
 Dec-Jan the lowest air temperature
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Wind has four seasons: southwest monsoon, northeast
monsoon, and two other shorter intermonsoon seasons
 southwest monsoon
 May/June to Sept.
 < 15 knots (note 1 knot = 0.5 m s-1)
 northeast monsoon
 Nov to March
 10-20 knots
 may reach 30 knots in east coast areas in
Peninsular Malaysia
 cold winds from Siberia
 Apr-Nov, typhoon in neighbouring countries, may
bring strong winds to Sabah and Sarawak (>20 knots)
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Rainfall
 2500 mm mean annual rainfall (note: 1 mm = 1 L or 1
kg of water in 1 m2)
 affected by wind flow (monsoons) and topographic
features
Seasonal rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia
 A) East coast
 Nov-Jan: wettest & June-July: driest
 B) Southwest areas
 Oct-Nov: wettest & Feb: driest
 C) The rest
 2 periods of maximum (Oct-Nov and Apr-May) and
2 periods of minimum (Jan-Feb and Jun-July)
rainfall
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Seasonal rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak
 A) Coastal Sarawak and northeast Sabah
 Jan: wettest
 June/July is the driest in Sarawak but April in
Sabah
 Dec-Mar is the main source of rain for west
Sarawak
 B) Inland Sarawak
 evenly distributed rain, slightly lower in Jun-Aug.
 hill slopes in inland Sarawak has the highest
rainfall in Malaysia (e.g., Long Akah has >5000
mm annual rain)
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C) Northwest coast Sabah
 2 periods of maximum (Oct and June) and 2
periods of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall
D) Central Sabah
 hilly and sheltered areas
 low rainfall and evenly distributed with less distinct
2 periods of maximum (May and Oct) and 2
periods of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall
E) Southern Sabah
 evenly distributed rain
 amount of rain received is like Central Sabah, but
Feb-Apr is slightly drier than the rest of the year
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Sunshine and solar radiation
 average 6 hours of sunshine (>120 W m-2) per day
 Alor Setar and Kota Bharu
 avg. 7 hours per day
 but 8.7 hours per day in Jan
 Kuching
 avg. 5 hours per day
 but 3.7 hours per day in Jan
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Evaporation (ET)
 indicates amount of water loss by evaporation into the
atmosphere
 affected by cloudiness and air temperature, also by
RH and wind speed
 more clouds and high RH, less ET
 high temperature and high wind speed, more ET
 lowland areas: 4 - 5 mm per day
 highland areas: 2.5 mm per day
Trends in climate change in Malaysia
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Temperature records in Malaysia in the last 50 years
have shown warming trends
But insufficient data to determine whether the frequency
of extreme events (e.g., drought, storms and floods) has
indeed increased
Balanced scorecard for natural disaster management projects; Tun Lin Moe, Fritz Gehbauer and Stefan Senitz; Disaster
Prevention and Management; Vol. 16 No. 5, 2007; 785-806
Landslide
A total of 19 natural disasters in Malaysia (1968-2004)
About one natural disaster every 2 years
Disaster types in Malaysia: an overview; Ibrahim Mohamed Shaluf, Fakhru'l-Razi Ahmadun; Disaster Prevention
and Management Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 2006, 286-298
Linear Regression Line
Mean increase per decade = +0.18 C
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha; Springer, Netherlands, 2005
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha; Springer, Netherlands, 2005
Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2099. Scientific Report; Malaysian Meteorological Dept. (2009)
Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2099. Scientific Report; Malaysian Meteorological Dept. (2009)
GLOBAL*
Surface
temperature (ºC)
Sea level rise (m)
Annual Rainfall
MALAYSIA**
2050
2100
2050
1.6
2.8
1.5
0.21 to
0.48
+10% (Kelantan, Terengganu
& Pahang)
-5% (Selangor & Johor)
* IPCC WG1 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007
** STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC REGIME
AND WATER RESOURCES OF PENISULAR MALAYSIA, NAHRIM, 2006
NAHRIM (National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia)
Predicted monthly rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia
Region
Mean monthly precipitation (mm)
Current
2025-2050
West Coast
179
176
Klang Valley
190
182
Selangor
190
181
Johor
187
180
Terengganu
289
299
Kelantan
222
240
Pahang
199
208
Perak
193
199
Kedah
174
177
Southern Peninsula
194
196
N. East Coast
260
282
Serdang min. air temperature
24
Temp. (°C)
23
22
21
y = 0.055x - 87.76
R² = 0.761
20
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
Year
1998
2001
2004
2007
Serdang max. air temperature
Temp. (° C)
35
34
33
32
31
y = 0.043x - 53.14
R² = 0.446
30
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Year
Serdang rainfall
Total Rainfall (mm)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
y = 21.51x - 40498
R² = 0.277
0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
Serdang wind speed
Wind speed (ms -1)
1.2
0.8
0.4
y = -0.013x + 28.07
R² = 0.635
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
Serdang sunshine hour
Sunshine hour (h)
8
6
4
2 y = 0.032x - 59.17
R² = 0.354
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
Year
1998
2001
2004
2007
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Generally, crop yields in Malaysia would increase in
 higher CO2 concentrations, lower air temperatures,
higher wind speeds, lower humidity
 more sunshine hours (or less clouds)
 greater solar radiation, greater energy for
photosynthesis
 lower air pollutants
 more rainfall
 in normally dry areas, but may increase pests and
diseases incidences
 or less rainfall
 in normally wet areas
But these above factors interact with each other to affect
yields
 so what is the net effect of climate change on yields?
Effect of climate change on rubber
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE:
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha;
Springer, Netherlands, 2005
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Rubber flourishes in a tropical climate
 with a high mean daily air temperature of 25-28 C
 high rainfall exceeding 2000 mm per year
 even distribution of rainfall with no dry seasons
exceeding one month
 at least 2100 h of sunshine per year
 5.75 h per day
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If the mean daily air temperature increases by 4.5 C
above the mean annual temperature, more dry months
and hence more moisture stress can occur
A crop decrease of 3–15% due to drought conditions is
projected if mean annual temperature increases to 31 C
The degree of yield decrease will be dependent on
clonal susceptibility, as well as the length and severity of
the drought
Some states may experience a reduction in production.
 It is projected that 273,000 ha of land, or 15% of
current rubber land, may be affected
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If rainfall increases, loss of tapping days and crop
washout occur
 Yield losses can range from 13 to 30%
If sea level rises by 1 m, low-lying areas may be flooded
and rubber cultivation would not be possible in these
areas
Effect of climate change on oil palm
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE:
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha;
Springer, Netherlands, 2005
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Oil palm is best suited to a humid tropical climate in
which
 rain occurs mostly at night and days are bright and
sunny
 minimum monthly rainfall is around 1500 mm with
absence of dry seasons
 an evenly distributed sunshine exceeding 2000 h per
year
A mean maximum temperature of about 29–33 C and a
mean minimum temperature of 22–24 C favor the
highest bunch production
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A high mean annual temperature of 28–31 C is
favorable for high production
If these higher temperatures lead to drought conditions,
however, an estimated 208,000 ha of land or 12% of the
present oil palm areas would be considered marginal-tounsuitable for oil palm cultivation, particularly in droughtprone areas
Increased rainfall favors oil palm productivity unless it
leads to flooding
With an anticipated sea level rise of 1 m, an estimated
100,000 ha of area, currently planted with oil palm, may
be deemed unsuitable and would have to be abandoned
Effect of climate change on cocoa
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE:
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha;
Springer, Netherlands, 2005
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Cocoa is planted in areas where annual rainfall is in the
range of 1250–2800 mm
Cocoa prefers areas where annual rainfall is in the range
of 1500–2000 mm and the number of dry months is three
or less
It should not be planted in areas with annual rainfall
below 1250 mm, unless irrigation is provided
Areas with annual rainfall exceeding 2500 mm are also
not favorable as it reduces yield by 10–20% due to water
logging
 excessive rainfall causes high disease incidence,
especially Phytophthora and pink diseases
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Temperatures exceeding 32 C may result in moisture
stress, leading to yield loss of 10–20%
Based on these considerations, the states that
experience a distinct dry season are marginal areas for
cocoa cultivation
 Irrigation is required in these areas if cocoa is to be
cultivated
Some areas, which register high rainfall, are not suited
for cocoa cultivation due to the high incidence of
diseases
 This can result in yield loss of more than 20%
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With climate change, a high incidence of drought is
expected to reduce yield
On the other hand, excessive rainfall with reduced
insolation can also result in low yields
 under such wet conditions, a high incidence of fungal
diseases such as vascular streak disease and black
pod can depress yields
Effect of climate change on rice
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE:
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry; Edited by
James Salinger, M.V.K. Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha;
Springer, Netherlands, 2005
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Rice constitutes 98% of total cereal production in
Malaysia
Generally, long periods of sunshine are favorable for
high rice yields
Growth is optimal when the daily air temperature is
between 24 and 36 C. The difference between day and
night temperatures must be minimal during flowering and
grain production
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Grain yields may decline by 9–10% for each 1 C rise in
temperature
If drought conditions are prolonged, the current flooded
rice ecosystem can not be sustained. It may be
necessary to develop non-flooded and dry land rice
ecosystem to increase the level of national rice
sufficiency
 a threat to national food security
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World’s ten largest producer of rice in 2008:
1. China (193.4 mil ton)
50% of world’s rice
2. India (148.3 mil ton)
3. Indonesia (60.3 mil ton)
4. Bangladesh (46.9 mil ton)
5. Viet Nam (38.7 mil ton)
6. Myanmar (30.5 mil ton)
7. Thailand (30.5 mil ton)
8. Philippines (16.8 mil ton)
9. Brazil (12.1 mil ton)
10. Japan (11.0 mil ton)
…
25. Malaysia (2.4 mil ton)
Rice productivity by country (1961-2008)
12
10
Australia
8
Yield (ton/ha)
Japan
China
Indonesia
6
Viet Nam
Malaysia
Thailand
4
Myanmar
2
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Australia and Japan: most efficient countries, but large
variations year-on-year
China: rapid & steady increase (2.1 to 6.6 ton/ha between 1961-2008)
Average rice productivity (2000-2008)
10
9
Average Rice Productivity by Country (2000-2008)
8.7
8
Yield (ton/ha)
7
6.4
6.3
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4.7
4.6
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.3
Malaysia rice statistics
Malaysia Rice Land Area
Malaysia Rice Yield Productivity
0.9
4.0
0.8
3.5
0.7
0.5
assuming no change in
land area by 2015
0.4
1.0
needed to obtain 100% in rice
self-sufficiency
0.2
2.0
1.5
0.3
0.5
0.1
0
1960
est. 2015
2.5
ton/ ha
mil. ha
2008:
0.67 mil. ha
3.0
0.6
2008:
3.6 ton/ha
+0.04 ton/ha
per year
0.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
Malaysia Rice Yield
Malaysia Rice Yield Per Capita
3.0
200
180
2.5
2008:
86.0 kg/capita
-1.0 kg/capita
per year
140
2.0
est. 2015
kg per capita
mil. ton
2008:
2.5 mil. ton
+28,300 ton
per year
160
1.5
1.0
120
100
80
est. 2015
60
40
0.5
20
0.0
1960
0
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
2020
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
2020
Malaysia self-sufficiency levels
Period
% self-sufficiency
1956-60
54
1961-65
60
1966-70
80
1971-75
87
1976-80
92
1981-85
77
1986-90
75
1991-95
76
1996-2000
71
2001-05
71
2006-08
72
Target: 100% self-sufficient by 2015
Possible?
Mean rice productivity increase per year
Malaysia Rice Yield Productivity Change Per Year
% mean change in rice yield per hectare per year
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.0
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2008
-0.2
-0.5
+2.0% increase per year only
(not 4.9% required for 100% self sufficiency by 2015)
Malaysia’s self sufficiency level
Year
Fruits
Veg.
Beef
Mutton
Pork
Poultry Eggs
Dairy
Fish
1990
110.4
75.2
23.8
10.5
113.9
106.3
109
4.3
91.1
1995
103
87
22
6
101
114
114
4
91
2000
91.3
88.5
22.7
6.4
80
127.8
139
4
89
2005
117
74
23
8
107
121
113
5
91
2007
105
89
25
9
106
121
114
5
97
% Malaysia agriculture land usage, 1960-2005
100
100
90
Industrial crops
80
70
70
% land usage
80
60
50
40
60
50
40
30
Year
Emphasis is on industrial crops, not food crops
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
Rubber
19
75
19
60
20
10
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
0
19
85
0
19
80
10
19
75
10
19
70
20
19
65
20
19
70
Food crops
Year
Oil palm
19
65
30
19
60
% land usage
90