Transcript Perspective in the Context of Second National Communication

Adaptation Police Framework:
Perspective in the Context of Second
National Communication – Central
American project and other initiatives
Luis R.Paz Castro
E.mail: [email protected]
PRESENTATION
OF CUBA
CUBA UNDER UNFCCC
Signature Ratification Due Date
13-June-92
05-April-97
05-January-94
National Focal Point
Ministry of Science, Technology
and Environment
PRESENTATION
OF CUBA
CUBA AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
Signature Ratification Due Date
13-March-99
30-July-02
30-April-02
National Focal Point
Ministry of Science, Technology
and Environment
National Climate Change Group
Cuba Government
Host Ministry
Ciencia, Tecnología y Medio Ambiente
Coordination
Institute of Meteorology
Sectors
 Energía, minas e
industria química
 Relaciones exteriores
 Recursos hídricos
 Transporte
 Uso de la tierra
 Pesca
 Instituciones académicas
y de investigación
 Agricultura, bosques
y producción
azucarera
 Construcción y
producción de cemento
 ONGs ambientales
Technical teams
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GHG Inventory
Vulnerability and adaptation
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Mitigation
National Communication
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Executive Summary.
Chapter 1. General introduction.
Chapter 2. National circumstances.
Chapter 3. GHG Inventory for 1990 and 1994.
Chapter 4. Mitigation options.
Chapter 5. Climate variability. Impacts and
adaptation.
Chapter 6. Vulnerability and adaptation to
Climate change
Chapter 7. Systematic Observation.
Chapter 8. Education and public awareness.
Chapter9. Possible projects.
National Circumstances
Cuba is an archipelago composed by
two major island (Cuba and Isla de la
Juventud) and 1600 keys.
Total area: 110 860 km2
Estimated population in 1998: 11 139
900 inhabitants
Population Density: 100.5 hab/km2
Cuban climate is tropical seasonally
wet.
Mean Temperature: 24°C-26°C
Mean annual rainfall: 1 300 mm.
Tropical cyclones are one of the
more important events.
Climate variability. Impacts
and Adaptation (1)
Main considerations.
• Any change in future climate will be
superimpose to climate variability.
• The impacts of climate variability are actual
problems.
• Adaptation to climate variability is the
beginning of the anticipated adaptation process.
Climate variability. Impacts and
Adaptation (2)
Centella et al (1997) indicate that the climate in Cuba shown
important variations in the mid of 70s. The variations are
characterized by:
• An increase of annual mean temperature (0.5°) and minimum
temperature (1.4°C), with a significant reduction of diurnal
range of temperature.
• Increase of winter rainfall.
• Increase of extreme events frequency including drought.
• Increase of El NIÑO event influences and impacts.
This variations are consistent with the IPCC reports and
results from other research for atmospheric circulation
developed in Cuba.
Climate variability. Impacts and
Adaptation (3)
STRATEGIC ACTIONS
• Institutional capacity to develop climate
prediction and early warning systems
(including more research on climate variability
and the improve of the observation systems).
• Institutional capacity to develop climate
aplications (Human health, agriculture, water
resources)
• Institutional capacity to anticipate the
potentials impacts of extreme events (a more
strong centralized system of response. Mainly
focused on human lives).
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change (1)
Evaluated Sectors
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Freshwater resources
Coastal Zones and Marine Resources
Agriculture and Forests
Human Health
Human Settlements and Land Use Changes
Wildlife and Biodiversity
Time Frame
30 year-periods centered on 2020, 2030, 2050 and
2100
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change (2)
Climate change scenarios were derived by scaling General
Circulation Model outcomes with simple climate model
results (MAGICC/SCENGEN approach). The scenarios
were based on:
 IS92a and KyotoA1 emission scenarios.
 IPCC range and mid value for climate sensibility.
 Three GCMs spatial patterns.
Future Climate (i.e. 2100) could be:
From 1.6 to 2.5°C warmer than present.
Between -10 and 19% less or more rain than present.
Sea level rise from 20 to 95 cm.
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change (3)
Impacts overview (I)
 Sea level rise could cause main climate change
impacts in Cuba. It could:
 Reduce the availability and quality of
freshwater.
 Affect negatively a 3.5 % of country area.
 Increase the vulnerability of 185 Human
settlements and 5 084 376 inhabitants.
 Strongly affect Mangrove and coastal
ecosystems.
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change (4)
Impacts overview (II)
Even if rainfall increases, warming could favors the
evaporation and a more or less enhancement
of
aridity process. The main associated impacts could
be:
 Reduction of forestry areas.
 Loss of biodiversity.
 More frequent and intensive drought process.
 Crops yields decrease.
 Reduction of the area for agricultural activities.
Adaptation. General overview
Adaptation strategies are oriented to ensure the
following:
 Protection and better use of water resources. Increasing
the efficiency in water resource management.
 Reduce the vulnerability of beach and mangroves
ecosystems by means of protection and conservation
measures.
 Conservation and protection of forestry resources.
Increasing the forest cover.
 Improve the agricultural system, increasing the use of
climate information and oriented agricultural climate
predictions in design and planning.
 Continuing improvement of human settlements and
human health system, incorporating the climate research
in the planning strategies of this sectors.
Lessons and Limitations
• Institutional capacity help the process, but it could be improved.
Additional funds to improve the observation systems and institutions.
• A better understanding of actual climate variability is important for
adaptation process. More research, technical capacity and funds are
required.
• Integrated V&A assessment is a key aspect of the process that should
be addressed in the next steps. Capacity Building.
• Adaptation and mitigation costs must be deeply assessed. Capacity
Building
• The future process must improve the integration of national programs
on climate change, desertification and biodiversity. Capacity Building
and additional financing
• Education and public awareness could be improved. Incorporation of
stakeholders and key sectors.
APF Structure
1. Scope project
Engage stakeholders
3. Characterize future
climate-related risks
4. Develop adaptation
strategy
5. Continue
adaptation process
Increase adaptive capacity
2. Assess current
vulnerability
PROJECT RLA/01/G31/A/1G/99
Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to
Climate Change in Central America, Mexico
and Cuba
The region will serve as the pilot region for
elaborating and applying an APF for preparing
adaptation strategies, policies and measures.
IPF
PROYECT CUB/03/009/01/34
Development and Adaptation to Climate Change
Components:
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To test the APF in selected rural areas in Cuba and
Dominican Republic;
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Scientific study about the risks relating to drought,
climatic extreme event that affect frequently both
countries, and;
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To strengthen the links with the regional initiative:
“Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
Region” (ACCC).
Strategy of the Project
Capacity building at local and regional level to face the
risk of climate variability and the climate change with
special regard to drought
• To motive and to capacitate of provincial, municipal
and local leaders in order to facilitate the planning and
intervention;
• To enhance technical capacity to generate relevant
information and developing early warning systems;
• To establish linkage with others projects in order to
maximize the resources available and enhance the
impacts;
• To enhance the linkage with ACCC through seminars,
workshops and exchange of information.
COORDINATION
General coordination
UNDP-INSMET
REPUBLICA
DOMINICANA
CUBA
SMARN
CITMA
Instituto de
Meteorología
MEP
Instituto de
Planificación
Física
Oficina de
Meteorología
Secretaría
Agricultura
Location of the Case Study, coastal
zone of Las Tunas province
Risk of drought
Very high
Sur de
Guantánamo
Area of the Case Study
3 municipalities: Manatí, Puerto Padre
and Jesús Menéndez
• Total area 2 771 km2
• Population 180 000 inhabitants
• Population density 68 inhabitants / km2
Types of survies:
Individual interview
Group Interview
Open interview
• individual
• farmers
• key informing
• farmers
Governmental
representatives,
socioeconomic sectors,
scientific institutions, etc.
Members of the team
Interview to a
farmer group
Presentation the Project to Local
Authorities, Las Tunas, October 13,
2003
SINERGIES AMONG THE PROJECTS
CUB/03/009/01/34
RLA/01/G31/1G/99
• Assessment of
climate evolution.
• Preliminary test of
APF
• Regional climate
Model
• Complementation of
Climate scenarious
• capacitation of
stakeholders
• Adaptation
technologies.
• Equipments
• Materials and methods
for training
CIDA-CCCDF
UoT & INSMET
General considerations
1. Adaptation is an immediate action from
which we can extract the necessary
teachings to adjust to socioeconomic
system in a progressive way.
2.
To learn from the past and the current
situation it can mean a better
preparation for the future.
3.
Adaptation is a process that should
begins with reduction of vulnerability to
current climatic variability.
General considerations…
4. Adaptation to climate change should
incorporate a better understanding of the
different actors of a country; and education
of its inhabitants should be part of the
adaptation strategy.
5. The APF is a good tool to incorporate the
population, and increase the education and
public awareness on climate change issues.
General considerations….
7. We understand that a single country doesn’t
have all the capacity and experience to
develop all the necessary actions for the
adaptation to climate variability and climate
change.
8. The knowledge there are not borders and
the cooperation is the best strategy to reach
the success.
!Fin y Gracias!
End and Thanks!